My gamer gut tells me Sony won't sell that many consoles.
But they are going to sell 125 million PS2's. Can they really lose more than 50% of their sales (60 million pieces of hardware) just because they launched at $600? SNES to N64 was a drop of 17 million units, N64 to GC was a drop of 10 million units. Sony doesn't have the 1st party content to cushion their fall, but they have enough not to lose more than 60 million customers..don't they? I think so.
As a percentage, Nintendo lost 33% of it's market from SNES to N64. If Sony lost that many PS2 owners, they are down into the 80 millions...still ahead of what I think Wii can do. But, I think Sony obtained less loyal followers..and can lose a lot more than 1/3 of their PS2 customers...somewhere between 2/5 and 3/5 of their base will likely go to Nintendo and Microsoft. Even if 60% abandon Sony though, that is still 50 million PS2 customers, and then add whatever they can get from former GC, XBOX owners.
I picked 66 million because I basically can't see them losing more than 60% of their customers, yet I can't see them selling more than 20 million in any territory besides America...its a compromise.
If you asked me for ranges I'd go:
Wii - 60-90 million
PS3 - 40-75 million (This assumes 50 to 85 million customers abandon PS2.. hard to predict)
360 - 45-65 million
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
