| RolStoppable said: TheSource, you are doing a great job at writing these statistic-heavy threads. I really like them. But it seems you are assuming nearly a tie between the 3 consoles at the end of this generation. That's just not possible. Sooner or later 3rd parties will pick a favorite platform, the one which gives them the highest profit margins for their games. Last generation the #1 console for 3rd parties was the PS2, thanks to the 18-month-headstart and the steady sales over that period to give Sony a 20-million-lead before GC and Xbox launched. Once the 3rd parties have decided which platform is going to win, they will focus their games on that single platform and may not even make ports for the competition. The gap between the consoles widens. It never happened that the platform that got the most exclusives lost its #1 position magically. Instead the marketshare grew significantly once a given platform was declared the winner by 3rd parties. Assuming a 3-way-tie would mean that 3rd parties would spread their games evenly among all consoles and I just can't see this happen. The console which has the best shot at the moment to become the winning console is the Wii. High, steady sales worldwide, low development costs, good attach ratio, good profit margins. In other words the complete opposite of the PS3 at the moment. The 360 has the best attach ratio but it suffers from the fact that it has a narrow demographic that tends to buy mostly FPS, sports games and racing games. Nintendo's philosophy to expand the market will bring in many new gamers that will stick to the Wii at least for 3 years because it was the Wiimote and software played with it which introduced them to the gaming world. For that matter neither the 360 or PS3 offer something similar, so they won't benefit from those new gamers. |
I absolutely agree with this. Not to concentrate on one console just hurts the third parties, because they have to invest more and still have a smaller userbase per console.
