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Forums - Sales Discussion - Worldwide Numbers Up - Feb 6, 2010! More adjustments too?!

postofficebuddy on 12 February 2010
Xoj said:
theprof00 said:
Complications said:
theprof00 said:
Complications said:

Thought about this again, and I don't see how these numbers can be right. I don't mean to whine, but there's hardly been a good explanation about the adjustments and none of my questions ever get answered here.

So, am I right in saying around 3M more PS3's have been 'sold' by Sony than have been sold to consumers according to this site? Well if so, how can this be correct?

  • If Sony's sales are counted by orders/financial transactions then the numbers don't make sense either. Im hearing that there are PS3 shortages in NA, so just say there are 1M PS3's on shelves/in warehouses/in transportation - that means 2M PS3's have been ordered by retailers. Now, why would retailers order so much stock over a period of time when PS3s aren't selling as much as we thought? Also, that would mean that the retailers have a very low stock turnover rate. And, if 2M orders have been made then why is there PS3 shortages? Trust me, Sony can keep up to console demand fine rightly. Makes no sense. This point does still leave the numbers believable, but very very doubtful.
  • There are so many possible answers to this question that it's hardly useful to list them all. Your best bet is just to wait it out and see what happens.
  • There are many possible answers to this question, but none that make sense. I think your point basically sums up my last line in that paragraph. Anyway, we'll have to wait and see.
  • If Sony' count their sales by shipped (or as soon as the units leave the factory) then the numbers are definitely wrong. There is no way on this earth that retailers have the storage capabilities to store 3M current PS3 models for quite some period of time
  • same thing here
  • Disagree here. This situation is defo impossible in my book.

Also, I was lurking about and a few questions still need answered Imo. 

  • Firstly, from a while back and the big adjustments. Why did it take VGC 3/4 years to figure out that they were overtracking in 'Others' when presumably the data they obtained is released every year or so?
  • Hard to track Europe and other countries because they do not have reliable tracking figures like in the USA, or at least they don't publish them, record them. It's like saying "Throughout high school, I was in school for approximately 1080 days" That's a pretty good guess, but to really find out, I'd need a record of all school days and compare them with ones where I was sick or had a snow-day.
  • VGC made the adjustments based on external data from the 'Others' region. Now, if this external data is released frequently then the only option here would be that the data itself had been wrong. But then id ask, why trust this data to base adjustments on. If this data is new/just released then Im fine on this point, but again, Im doubtful this is the case.
  • Secondly, what data is being used to base these adjustments on. It couldn't be VGC's own sample data as its far to small, and if it were Sony/NPD related then wouldn't adjustments have been sooner? I don't understand how adjustments are not made when big name figures are released, but are when no data (at least to the public) is available.
  • VGC gets data from a number of sources including retailers and customers, I believe. However, some part of that equation may have been missing up until now.
  • Must have been a pretty large part considering the small source scale VGC works with.

So, anyone care to help?

 

So...

VGChartz has it's back covered in all areas basically and it's numbers are realistic. However in saying that, you really need to look at the probability of VGChartz being right here. Very possible, but very unlikely.

my inclination is that they know ps3 is undertracked somewhere, but they can't just add the numbers, because they don't know where exactly it is where it is undertracked. The problem you are overlooking with Europe and Others is that it is a market slightly bigger than NA, but composed of 180 countries compared to 3. I personally think that the numbers are just shuffling around, but even so, there really are some other convincing reasons. For example, if a price cut was coming in EU/others, it would be more than fair to understand that there might be 1M+ in a stockpile somewhere.

Again, think about it. We have 3-4 very very big games coming very shortly. GoW3, GranTurismo, FF13, Heavy Rain, MAG, ModNation Racers (debateable whether MNR will be that big, but it's contributing nonetheless). With an outpouring of games of that quality there will obviously be a major shortage if there isn't a big reserve somewhere.

i wonder where they track, central and south america, they probably don't, and that's maybe where those sales come from. or middle east.

i am pretty sure they don't have a way to track those other extrapolate the data they have for other regions, but considering people complaining of shortages since january,

This is exactly the issue at hand. Other Others is undertracked, we simply do not have enough data for the region. It's hard for ioi and Source to justify adjustments to that region when we have no metric to determine what the numbers should be adjusted to. But I think it's pretty safe to assume it's undertracked there. Let's take a look at the numbers that we have currently. Middle East sales are 450k.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=99155

Apparently it's ahead of the 360 in South Korea. I'm guessing somewhere in the area of 300k-350k since the 360 was at 100k there about 2 and a half years ago IIRC.

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-steadily-increasing-market-share-across-the-globe/

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 02nd Jul 2000 to 02nd Jan 2010:

 

Console PS3
Other
1,483,193

I think it's safe to assume there's more than 800k PS3s in the rest of mainland Asia, Oceania, and Africa. But like I said before it's hard for them to justify adjustments when we have no way of determining what they should be adjusted to. When Sony gives out numbers for those regions then there will be adjustments. :edit: Wow, I didn't realize ioi gave a breakdown of the numbers in the other thread. That's what I get for stepping away from the comp for a little while before I post.



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ahwang826 on 13 February 2010

i think its more the fact that sony released a report that said 33.6million ps3s sold to retailers. that leaves 3 million on shelves and people are just confused as to how thats possible. i mean, if the ps3's really arent selling as well as we thought, the stores would be the first to know and wouldnt order any more right?



FF_Fanatic on 13 February 2010

more shortages confirmed, something smells fishy http://n4g.com/gaming/NewsCom-475412.aspx?CT=1, no offense to this site, seen as they are trying their hardest



jesus kung fu magic on 13 February 2010

My heart weeps....



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goddog on 13 February 2010

i remember back on this site when the 360 kept passing ten million for almost half a year, i do not remember the 360 fans putting up so much fuss,

could sony have been channel stuffing off of a hot sales period hardly the first time a console has done that to clear inventory for a modest hardware change

i will say to put in context i was a lurker for a good part of that i joined later in the summer



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binary solo on 13 February 2010
Squilliam said:
binary solo said:
The thing that annoys me about downward adjustments is that people think things look "bad" for PS3. But if the sales numbers from the beginning (of when PS3 started selling really well) had reflected what we see today then people would still say PS3 is doing well.

Funny how psychology works.

Things look bad for you, you adjusted your pants. You got a woody?

That makes things go from looking bad to humiliatingly embarassing.



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Aprisaiden on 13 February 2010
goddog said:
i remember back on this site when the 360 kept passing ten million for almost half a year, i do not remember the 360 fans putting up so much fuss,

could sony have been channel stuffing off of a hot sales period hardly the first time a console has done that to clear inventory for a modest hardware change

i will say to put in context i was a lurker for a good part of that i joined later in the summer

It helped that Microsoft only shipped 1million units in those 6 months...

 Really though with PS3 numbers something is missing and we will see if ioi or PS3 fans are correct once SONY's q1 shipment numbers comes in. IF SONY ships the ~2.5 million consoles they need to make there 13 million prediction, then its obvious that PS3 is undertracked, if SONY ships ~800k-1million units then ioi was right with these adjustments. (Though the 3 million gap in sales/shipments through 31st december is kinda big)



huaxiong90 on 13 February 2010
jesus kung fu magic said:

My heart weeps....

How come?



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puffy on 13 February 2010

Sony better sort out the shortage or they'll have missed out on a quite a few sales.. I think they may be stockpiling for FFXIII and GoWIII because I don't understand how there could be any shortages when there is about a 3 million console discrepancy between shipped figures and VGC's sold figures. It doesn't make much sense to me.

Nintendo still smooth sailing, DS will slow down this year although Miyamoto has said that he's working on two DS projects so depending on the strength of that software, it may not be down YoY as much as it's looking like it will be. Wii selling well but will need good software in the next few moths if it's going to gain momentum off the back of a strong finish to 2009. The Vitality Sensor will be a console seller during the holidays as will Zelda Wii.

Microsoft have a steady stream of AAA titles coming but for the most part, they're sequels so they won't push large amounts of systems but they will keep the console moving at a brisk pace until the launch of Natal where they may be able to boost sales considerably. People saying that the 360 will beat the PS3 by a large margin in Q4 seem to forget that Arc will also be a player for the holidays and that Sony are capable of having as good a line up as Microsoft for the holidays.



 

Xoj on 13 February 2010
goddog said:
i remember back on this site when the 360 kept passing ten million for almost half a year, i do not remember the 360 fans putting up so much fuss,

could sony have been channel stuffing off of a hot sales period hardly the first time a console has done that to clear inventory for a modest hardware change

i will say to put in context i was a lurker for a good part of that i joined later in the summer

the thing is ps3 it's having shortages, small one but a shortage.

month after month ps3 getting decent shipments.

and many people forget  the 33.5 its shipped dec 31 2009 our numbers were at 30 million about that time.

many people compare numbers as now, to that shipment numbers, tahts the problem, in a month the ps3 will get another shipments. of 1-2 millions.