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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Mario Wonder 50m+ LT

I have been thinking since announcement Mario Wonder can secure the second highest lifetime sales ever on the Switch since new 2D Mario has historically always been a sales beast and it’s releasing on the ultimate Nintendo software moving system at the ultimate time of one of the biggest install bases in gaming history.

Now the game sits with a 93 meta, the highest meta for any full priced 21st century 2D game to my knowledge. Mario movie just ended up one of the top grossing movies of all time earlier this year, the IP is more relevant than ever. Especially with a new gen of kids. All the pieces are there, this game is going to explode. The one and only thing keeping me from saying over MK8 is how late we are into tue Switch life vs MK8 getting 7+ years of great sales opportunity. But hey, who knows. 

EDIT: Since there seems to be some confusion, I’m talking only on Switch. I’m highly doubtful Switch 2 will even get a port of this given how much more powerful the hardware will be and what’s there to gain porting from a 140m+ install base? 

Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - on 24 October 2023

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On the Switch I doubt it. I think for games like MK8 a lot of the continued sales come from people buying that game with the system, even if they buy it later on. With Switch 2 seemingly coming out soon, that will decrease its selling power. If it's ported to Switch 2 maybe.

50M+? No way. Not this late in the game. If this had released instead of Odyssey back in 2017 I could see it.

I think the game will sell 30M at its height. Unless it's ported to Switch 2 (which, hopefully, Switch 2 is just BC)

Watch Mario reach 20 million by January 2024
28-30 million by August 2024
35-40 million by January 2025
45-50 million life time

Does this include the 4k Super Mario Wonder DX version on Switch 2?

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

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Once again I think the timing is too off for it to get anywhere near that. 2D Mario has been a top game on previous systems due to legs, this time the next system is maybe 1 year away, backwards compatability or not the Switch version at least will slow down significantly after that. My prediction: It will sell less than Odyssey on Switch.

Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

Switch by the end of its life cycle will have sold over 150 million. It should easily do anywhere between 40 to 50 million lifetime.

i am not sure....


Too late on the Switch lifetime to be able to achieve that. 30M would be more probable

I can potentially see it reaching the 40's but not that high.