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Forums - Gaming Discussion - How Much Do You Expect the Xbox One to Sell Lifetime?


How Much Do You Expect the Xbox One to Sell Lifetime?

Less Than 45 Million 376 20.23%
45-50 Million 533 28.67%
51-55 Million 432 23.24%
56-60 Million 284 15.28%
61-65 Million 91 4.90%
66-70 Million 54 2.90%
71-75 Million 25 1.34%
76-80 Million 5 0.27%
81-85 Million 8 0.43%
More Than 85 Million 51 2.74%

This week's front page poll - How Much Do You Expect the Xbox One to Sell Lifetime?

As with last week's poll, I think these sorts of prediction threads are great to come back to and look at a few years down the line, so now the official poll is back we can have a formal archive for all sorts of sales predictions.

Will be doing one for each console in the coming weeks, but we'll start with the Xbox One. So, as of July 2018 where do you see the Xbox One ending up in total sales?

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51 to 55 million

it depends on how long we have to wait for next gen, but I expect it to sell about 60m lifetime

Although much depends on the release of the next Xbox, it's looking like it'll be somewhere in the 51-60 million range.

2018 - Another 5.5 million for the rest of the year. It's up slightly so far on last year (to my surprise), but I've been conservative for the rest of the year and assumed it'll be roughly flat over the holidays.
2019 - 5.5 million for the full year. Almost certain decline YoY, question is by how much. I've gone with a 30% drop, though that may be a touch generous.
2020 - 3.3 million. Possible Next Xbox release. PS3 and 360 both declined by between 30 and 40% in the debut year of their successors, so I've factored in a 40% YoY drop here.
2021 - 1.5 million. First full year of successor or late Next Xbox release. Looking at an over 50% YoY drop if the former is the case.
2022 - 0.5 million . Next gen in full swing. Xbox One and PS4 both very much legacy platforms getting only the annual sports titles for new release. 70% YoY drop.
2023 onwards - 0.5 million. Basically where PS3 and 360 are right now. Last few dregs and stock clearances.

Total = 54.7 million

So I've selected the 51-55 option, though I wouldn't be surprised if it just about managed to sneak into the 56-60 range.

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45-50 mil TBH. They lack compelling exclusives and the X1X hype has died down, so unless you ONLY play multiplats there is really no reason to buy one over the PS4. I also believe the Switch will pass the X1 in sales by the end of the next fiscal year, seeing how 2019 is going to likely be jam packed with games like Bayo 3, Prime 4, Fire Emblem, and next gen Pokemon. This is coming right off of Smash and a Pokemon yellow reimagining as well, so despit the slower start to this year, things should really ramp up soon on the Nintendo front.

I see the X1 as the clear weakest link in the big theee right now, and little can be said for how they are fixing the issue. They are adding nice features and services, but the lack of exclusive titles that can be considered must plays leave much to be desired. I will be suprised if it ever breaks 50 mil before the next box comes out...if at all.

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51 -55m


Like most, I went with 51-55.

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