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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will Super Mario Odyssey surpass 20 million lifetime?


How much will Super Mario Odyssey sell?

less than 10 million, BAD LEGS!!!!!! 6 3.53%
10-12 million 24 14.12%
12-14 million 27 15.88%
15 million 43 25.29%
16-17 million 16 9.41%
18-19 million 8 4.71%
20 million 15 8.82%

Super Mario Odyssey had a hell of a launch. With over 2 million sold in the first 3 days, Super Mario Odyssey is, by far, the fasting selling Mario 3D worldwide.

We have not data for every countries, but we know Mario Odyssey sold over 500k in Japan according to Famitsu withouth digital sales, when every others 3D Mario failed to sell 400k at retail, and we know UK launch was another record launch.


Now, i personally expected a launch like that... even so, this makes me thinking, we talk about a game which is gonna have HUGE legs this holiday season, expecially thanks the bundle, and in general, we talk about Mario. Mario always has legs, expecially if we talk about a successfull console, which is the case of Switch.


This is what the others Mario 3D games have sold (shipped) since 1996:

[N64] Super Mario 64 – 11.91 milioni
[NGC] Super Mario Sunshine – 5.91 milioni
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy – 12.72 milioni
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 – 7.41 milioni


[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS - 11.06 milioni
[3DS] Super Mario 3DLand – 11.40 milioni (In crescita)

[WIU] Super Mario 3DWorld – 5.70 milioni (In crescita)


To be honest, i predicted 15 million units for Super Mario Odyssey in January 2017... but right now, i don't know, i think this number may too low. The fact is that, so far, we saw a lot of absurd records for Switch games, just look at Zelda: Botw, this game right now is gonna sell easy over 10 million, could end with over 12 million as well, and before that, the record for a Zelda game was just 8.5 million (Twilight Princess).

Splatoon too, will easy surpass 10-12 million, as for the first quarter we already saw 3.61 million, and the original only sold 5 million.


The fact is that, Nintendo IP right now looks stronger than ever, and i think Mario 3D, with all this Nintendo success, and good word of mouch, can break insane record too.


So what do you think? Will Mario Odyssey sell 20 million lifetime?

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I'll still go with 15 million, as for now. Post your prediction.

Of course it will, im basing it on this

Didn't a certain tbone51 already predict over 20 million for Super Mario Odyssey?



I did not knew TBone already made a similar thread lol

Someone block this pls

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I am expecting 7-9M for Super Mario Odyssey. 10M+ would really surprise me.

Dr.Vita said:
I am expecting 7-9M for Super Mario Odyssey. 10M+ would really surprise me.

Bro..  Sometimes i wonder about you. At least do a little history 1st :p

Ill help you out buddy... Sm3dw on wiiu (yes wiiu) sold 6mil.... This game is on switch and its literally ahead of the 3d mario games that all sold 10mil+ 


Dont be surpised. By years end this game has a chance to sell over 7mil WW alone

tbone51 said:
Dr.Vita said:
I am expecting 7-9M for Super Mario Odyssey. 10M+ would really surprise me.

Bro..  Sometimes i wonder about you.

9m is a more sensible prediction then 20m at least.

No, SMO will not pass 20 million.

13-15 million looks more likely.

It really depends. I think Galaxy 1 could have sold more had 2 not come out. If Nintendo makes an SMO2 (which is logical since they can use the same engine as SMO1) and it releases on the Switch, I can see that canabolizing SMO1 sales. If, however, SMO2 comes out on Switch 2, (or whatever they call the next 3d mario and console device), then I could see SMO going over 15, maybe 20 million.

We are in a weird world right now because the 3ds is getting a longer than usual lifespan than most handhelds and the Switch may get a longer than normal lifespan as well, especially if the next handheld is the Switch just smaller. If this is a 7-8 year device, and they don't canabolize with a sequel on the Switch 1, 20 million is doable I think. If, however, Switch 2 comes out in roughly 5 years, and a new Mario games is out on that device, no way is 20 million happening. Then again, I could be wrong. Do past 3d mario games tend to sell considerably less after the next ones are out?