Where things stand
Here's the updated Real Clear Politics average of the six most recent polls, all of which are from the second half of August:
Biden: 27.3%
Sanders: 19.2%
Warren: 16%
Harris: 7.2%
Buttigieg: 4.8%
Others: >3%
As I predicted the other week, the race has snapped back to normal now that the aura of the last debate round has subsided, with Biden and Sanders once again composing the leading two candidates in the polling average. That's clearly the way this race wants to go. The bottom line is that Sanders has regained his second-place position at Elizabeth Warren's expense. (A couple weeks ago, Warren was averaging 18.5% and Sanders 17.5%.)
Joe Biden has also fallen off a bit of late, surprisingly, causing the race to meaningfully tighten a bit to where the second place candidate now polls less than ten points behind the leading one. In a hopeful scenario, that reflects the fact that, as we approach Labor Day, more people are now paying attention to the Democratic contest. Still, with more than 60% of Biden supporters saying that they've made up their minds as to who they'll be voting for in the primaries, I'm no longer as optimistic as some are about the prospects for him falling much further than this. (He has also been here before: in mid-July, after the first round of debates, he reached an average of 26%. It didn't last.)
Also, Kamala Harris is now pretty much all the way back to where she was before the first debate round: back then, her polling average was exactly 7% and now it is back down to 7.2%, so basically the same.
Additional small observation: Democratic voters clearly want more emotional candidates this time around. The most aesthetically Obama-like candidate in this race I can see is Pete Buttigieg and the most Hillary Clinton-like candidate is Amy Klobuchar and neither of them seem to be able to break into double-digits as a generalized trend. Anyone else notice this? It's like we're in pain for some odd reason. *cough cough*
A ranking of my preferences
So it looks like there will be ten candidates who make the next debate and that it could mercifully even be a one-night event for a change. (It's been fun hearing from 20 candidates over two nights, but I think it is time for things to get more focused at this point. It's clear that many of these campaigns aren't getting anywhere.) This de-facto winnowing makes it much easier for me to order my preferences. Here's the order in which I prefer the ten candidates who are confirmed to be on the next debate stage:
1) Elizabeth Warren
2) Bernie Sanders
3) Andrew Yang
4) Kamala Harris
5) Cory Booker
6) Julian Castro
7) Pete Buttigieg
8) Beto O'Rourke
9) Joe Biden
10) Amy Klobuchar