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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

jason1637 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Biden will get a boost - but so does everybody else. And he will probably still get quite a few votes on ST as not everybody will have heard that he dropped out by then.

I wonder if any of the ST syates have early voting for the primary. 

Texas and Cali had



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
jason1637 said:
Good to hear that Pete dropped. Hopefully this gives Biden a boost during Super Tuesday. At this point I'd take anyone besides Bernie, Warren, and Bloomberg.

Biden will get a boost - but so does everybody else. And he will probably still get quite a few votes on ST as not everybody will have heard that he dropped out by then.

Many states have early voting, so Buttigieg will be present through this. Also not to forget: some voters will decide to stay home if they can't vote for their favorite candidate. So the actual effect on the other candidates is kinda hard to guess.



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LurkerJ said:
Joe Rogan listed his fave political commentators and ALL of them are from the left: Kyle, The Hill/Rising, Jimmy Dore.

It's really saddening that so many people hate him just because he's a free speech champion, I have never seen him as a right winger until I witnessed the repeated outrage against him. WTF.

I've watched dozens of hours of Rogan's show. From what I gather he's an extremely chill mostly left wing dude. The reason some of the modern left hates him is that they've drifted into a very very Authoritarian direction of late, and Rogan has a libertarian bent. These types look at someone at odds with them and different them in many ways and they only comprehend things in a binary way, so in their minds, different = right wing. In actuality, Rogan is probably more left wing than they are in many ways ironically.

He's also a threat to the likes of CNN and MSNBC who are supposed to be the ultimate guardians of truth for these people and Rogan's show offers some unique perspective with unique guests that's often at odds with them. And because his show has 7 and a half million subs and many of his podcasts have had millions of views, he's viewed as a threat to their established order.

As far as I can tell, his only actual "right wing" views are 2nd amendment/gun ownership and his hesitancy in letting trans athletes beat the shit out of cis women in sports. And he's had on some right wing & right libertarian guests (along with MANY left wing ones btw). That's literally it. His very strong views on free speech and his notions of "live and let live" SHOULD be viewed as left wing, and for many still is. but again, with the staunch Authoritarian shift of the mainstream/establishment left in the last 5-6 years, such a view is increasingly (hilariously and ironically) viewed as "right wing" by many of these types. 

Last edited by DarthMetalliCube - on 02 March 2020

 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident - all men and women created by the, go-you know.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

Buttigieg dropping out helps to get a contested convention according to 538. Reason is the viability threshold of 15%. Many candidates were close to it in many states and now have a chance to overcome the 15% and therefore getting delegates, which will be subtracted from the candidates that already were securely above 15%. Which in nearly all states include Bernie Sanders, which is why he is damaged the most by Mayor Pete dropping.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/



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Mnementh said:

Buttigieg dropping out helps to get a contested convention according to 538. Reason is the viability threshold of 15%. Many candidates were close to it in many states and now have a chance to overcome the 15% and therefore getting delegates, which will be subtracted from the candidates that already were securely above 15%. Which in nearly all states include Bernie Sanders, which is why he is damaged the most by Mayor Pete dropping.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

This is what I've been saying and what @SpokenTruth missed from my post. It doesn't matter if his support doesn't mainly go to Bernie or if it mainly goes to Sanders. The good part of him being in was that the contested convention was less likely, especially once Super Tuesday hit and Bernie had his lead. Now Biden and Warren might be viable in Cali when before there was a high chance that only Bernie would be viable. This is not good



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Mnementh said:

Buttigieg dropping out helps to get a contested convention according to 538. Reason is the viability threshold of 15%. Many candidates were close to it in many states and now have a chance to overcome the 15% and therefore getting delegates, which will be subtracted from the candidates that already were securely above 15%. Which in nearly all states include Bernie Sanders, which is why he is damaged the most by Mayor Pete dropping.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

Id be an interesting situation if Bernie ended up with more delegates but Biden somehow ends up with a better popular votes at a contested convention. 



jason1637 said:
Mnementh said:

Buttigieg dropping out helps to get a contested convention according to 538. Reason is the viability threshold of 15%. Many candidates were close to it in many states and now have a chance to overcome the 15% and therefore getting delegates, which will be subtracted from the candidates that already were securely above 15%. Which in nearly all states include Bernie Sanders, which is why he is damaged the most by Mayor Pete dropping.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

Id be an interesting situation if Bernie ended up with more delegates but Biden somehow ends up with a better popular votes at a contested convention. 

That's not going to happen. Especially after Cali votes Bernie will be way ahead in both delegates and the popular vote. The problem is how many others reach viability now. The only given in this election is that Bernie will have the most delegates. Whether that's a Plurality or Majority is what's being fought for. In other words, No contested convention giving Bernie the Majority and allowing the focus to be on Bernie vs Trump or not stealing the election from Bernie and giving Trump a landslide victory. Unless someone gets a crazy surge there is no way its not going to be Bernie with the most delegates and votes.

Last edited by uran10 - on 02 March 2020

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jason1637 said:
Mnementh said:

Buttigieg dropping out helps to get a contested convention according to 538. Reason is the viability threshold of 15%. Many candidates were close to it in many states and now have a chance to overcome the 15% and therefore getting delegates, which will be subtracted from the candidates that already were securely above 15%. Which in nearly all states include Bernie Sanders, which is why he is damaged the most by Mayor Pete dropping.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

Id be an interesting situation if Bernie ended up with more delegates but Biden somehow ends up with a better popular votes at a contested convention. 

Following current polls this seems an unlikely scenario. But after all, these are unlikely primaries so far, so all bets are off.



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538 has a really nice toy, which let you choose Super Tuesday winners and selects out of the 10,000 simulations the ones matching your selection and showing the final result in delegates and probabilities. Click a plausible outcome, which let's your candidate win!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/super-tuesday/

EDIT:

BTW, if I click the practical surefire wins for Sanders in California and Maine, than I reach with Bernie-wins in Texas and Massachusetts a delegate count above 1990 for him. So I think Texas and Massachusetts are important states to watch tomorrow. But that is down already to 2,297 simulations (out of the initial 10K).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/super-tuesday/#TX:Sanders,MA:Sanders,CA:Sanders,ME:Sanders

Last edited by Mnementh - on 02 March 2020

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Biden is now the youngest male candidate left on the field. Let that sink in for a moment.