I dont know much about this stuff but what would a console like you're proposing cost? And how big of a jump would it be over PS4 Pro/XB1X?
Lets take the PS4 back in 2013 for instance
- APU $120 (28nm 348mm2)
- RAM $62 (16 x 4Gb modules in clamshell/ currently using 8 x 8Gb modules)
- HDD $23
- BRD $25
Thats $230 for what I would consider the essential components. Other stuff are thins like cooling, PSU, controller, assembly.....etc. But this should give you an idea of what they are willing to spend in each field.
Now for the PS5 and without going into to much details it would be something like this
- APU $120-$150 (7nm chip 350mm2 - 370mm2)
- RAM $70 - $90 (8 - 12 x 16Gb modules GDDR6)
- HDD/SSD $25 2TB HDD / $45 1TB SSD
- BRD $25
That will put us in the $240 - $310 bracket.
If going with a $240 setup then they will retail for $399. A $310 setup will probably end up being a $500 console when all other components are added.
At $399 you end up with a
- CPU that is about 6 times better than whats in the PS4/XB1 and 4 times better than whats in the PS4pro/XB1X
- GPU of around 10TF which is like 6 times better than whats in the base PS4 and about 2.5 times better than whats in the Pro
- 16 GB of RAM
For a $499 system the CPU will be the same and the GPU and RAM will go up a bit.
I'm glad you finding so much wrong with my post but let me explain. About the GPU.
First a 40CU (xbox one X SOC) clocked at 1800mhz on 7nm transistors will probably pull about 200w we need to get that number down to 100-120W. Looking at Vega for both 14nm/7nm, the chinese console and amds own apu with just 11CU at 210mm2 die I just can't get the math to support a gpu that has more than 9TF. Just looking at Vega VII with 338mm2 die at 7nm having just 60CU we can conclude it's very unlikely we will see more than 60CU on PS5. And based on towshardware vega 56 review on how much power this card pull at varies clock-speed my conclusion is that PS5 will have about 56CU clocked at 1200-1300 MHZ. Which is actually pretty close to what you wrote.
RAM and Storage:
There's two reason I believe we will see 12 GB ram and not the common-sense prediction of 16 or 24 GB of ram. The first is prices of GDDR6 seems a good amount higher than Gddr5 and second there won't be any need for more Ram anyways because PS5 will use AMDs High-bandwidth cache controller (HBCC) which will make the ram usage much more efficient.
Because of HBCC next-gen consoles will go 1TB NVME ssd drives which is needed to use HBCC, now I seen some people thinking the price to high, but right now looking at Newegg 1TB NVMe cost between 155-180$ (I'm assuming Sony buys this stuff half the price at retail) and those are high quality NVMe SSDs (intel 660p, HP EX920 and Corsair Force MP300). Prices also predicted to drop between 20-50% this year and will likely drop a good amount during next-gen because of very high competition making 1TB NVMe ssd drive an excellent choice.
Your entire GPU argument falls through because you are basing everything off Vega architecture. Vega like Polaris are all based on the GCN architecture. Which are well known for being very inefficient chips (using more power t arrive at similar frequencies to their direct rival). Navi which is to be in the PS5/XBn has not based on GCN. Or even if it is its at the very least based on a different microArch. So basically using Vega or polaris thermals and power draw r even worse architecture limitations to measure what will be in the next gen hardware is a mistake. Only thing we know is that they are built using a 7nm process.
As fr your storage thing...... You d realize that an Nvme drive cost about 120% more than a standard SATA SSD drive right?
e.g Right now on amazon 1TB M.2 Sata SSD cost $135 meanwhile a 1TB M.2 NVme cost $330.
Its possible that sony and ms can et 1TB Sata SSDs for around $45 - $55 in 2020. It however is impossible that they will et NVME SSDs for that price in 2020.
No NVMe SSDs? No HBCC. And thats not even how HBCC works Its not about using storage as RAM for the GPU its about using slower RAM as RAM for the GPU. Then again there is another way all this can be solved but hat is not what you are talking about.
Last edited by Intrinsic - on 28 January 2019