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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 35 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - August 27- September 02, 2018

Lawlight on 05 September 2018
Supermario28 said:

No bump at all for PS4 even with 2 games in the first places and 3 new releases.
I'm starting to understand why sony estimated only 16 milions for FY2018.

And SMO is out of top 20 while BOTW still holds. Impressive legs!

They increased their forecast to 17M and I doubt Japan has anything to do with it. It only accounts for 8% of the total PS4 sales.



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Farsala on 05 September 2018
zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:
PS4 down yoy and Switch is it on its way at this rate.

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.



Bofferbrauer2 on 06 September 2018
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.

Late September to early October is packed full with releases, amongst them Super Mario Party, so I hardly see how it could be down



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

TheBraveGallade on 06 September 2018
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.

This week's sales might go down a bunch cause earthquake, but no. I do not think it will drop below 40k otherwise...

 

Also ninty sales are january-september=october-dece mber I believe?



Farsala on 06 September 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.

Late September to early October is packed full with releases, amongst them Super Mario Party, so I hardly see how it could be down

So Super Mario Party will equal the effect Super Mario Odyssey gave?



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Slownenberg on 06 September 2018
Farsala said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Late September to early October is packed full with releases, amongst them Super Mario Party, so I hardly see how it could be down

So Super Mario Party will equal the effect Super Mario Odyssey gave?

I think he's referring to Valkyria Chronicles 4 (and I think the original VC as well), Mega Man 11, and Fifa all coming out just before Mario Party. But yeah those games plus Mario Party are nothing compared to Odyssey. Late september and early October will probably be up from last year, but then late October until Let's Go in mid-november will certainly be down from the Mario bump last year.



Farsala on 06 September 2018
Slownenberg said:
Farsala said:

So Super Mario Party will equal the effect Super Mario Odyssey gave?

I think he's referring to Valkyria Chronicles 4 (and I think the original VC as well), Mega Man 11, and Fifa all coming out just before Mario Party. But yeah those games plus Mario Party are nothing compared to Odyssey. Late september and early October will probably be up from last year, but then late October until Let's Go in mid-november will certainly be down from the Mario bump last year.

I see he said late September/ early October when I said late October/ early November. Those small releases will help marginally, especially Mario Party, but they won't match the increase it got last year.



Bofferbrauer2 on 06 September 2018
Farsala said:
Slownenberg said:

I think he's referring to Valkyria Chronicles 4 (and I think the original VC as well), Mega Man 11, and Fifa all coming out just before Mario Party. But yeah those games plus Mario Party are nothing compared to Odyssey. Late september and early October will probably be up from last year, but then late October until Let's Go in mid-november will certainly be down from the Mario bump last year.

I see he said late September/ early October when I said late October/ early November. Those small releases will help marginally, especially Mario Party, but they won't match the increase it got last year.

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

zygote on 06 September 2018

I wonder what this data would have looked like if Switch hadn’t been a thing. 



Farsala on 07 September 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

I see he said late September/ early October when I said late October/ early November. Those small releases will help marginally, especially Mario Party, but they won't match the increase it got last year.

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.

Zorg always talks about 10 weeks, I am always talking about 6 weeks. Japan holidays don't start with 10 weeks left, it starts when Pokemon launches.

Thus the emphasis on the bold.

Here I even found you a post demonstrating what I mean, similar to the one above. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8858358

And since then:

Week 31: 50,799

Week 32: 50, 143

Week 33: 54, 647

Week 34:  46,259

Week 35: 42, 151

Avg: 48,799

So it has not maintained the average necessary to be up YoY by Week 45 as I have been talking about this entire time. Yes, it will shoot back up YoY when Pokemon and Smash releases.