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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

zorg1000 on 08 June 2018

So far NSW third party support looks a lot like the first 24 months of Wii U. You just change Ubisoft/EA for Bethesda.

Nintendo got a decent deal with Bethesda and that's basically the only big deal Nintendo got so far.

I think the big difference between Wii U & NSW 3rd party support is that Wii U support started out pretty solid but after a year it basically dried up, on the other hand NSW support started out pretty slow but has been ramping up as time goes by.

At this point in Wii U's life it basically just got the annual Skyanders, Just Dance & Lego games, a handful of decent indies and Watch Dogs was the only big hardcore game on the way. Even annual sports titles stopped coming after the first year.

With Switch we are seeing massive indie support, mid-size Japanese games are starting to come at a decent pace (Inazuma Eleven, Yokai Watch, DQ Builders, Valkaryia Chronicles, YS, Shining, Dark Souls Remastered, etc) along with solid western support (FIFA, NBA, Crash, Wolfenstein, Paladins, Fortnite, Ark, etc).

The 3rd party situation is looking far better for NSW than it did for Wii U after year 1.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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TheBlackNaruto on 08 June 2018
Mnementh said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Wasn't GoW the only big gun that the PS4 had though? If you are going to count MHW and SotC like that for PS4 yo can't forget stuff like LABO and Kirby for Switch.

Again: http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php

PS4-spike for MonHun and GoW visible. Not so much for Labo and Kirby.

I still count Pokemon Let's Go as a win. First, it still seems like a pretty cool game, but more importantly: with this they capture the people entering the IP through Pokemon Go. Basically Let's Go is a hybrid from Go and the core series. But as a core game is announced for 2019, this means Let's Go captures the more casual gamers, andd this means they have no need to do that in the core games. So the 2019 game has actually more potential and you have to fear less they incorporate feature s from Go, as they already have their own series for this now.

I think you missed my point when I said that about MHW, Kirby and LABO lol. MHW definitely had a spike but I was not putting it in the same category as GoW as being a Major or BIG title. Which it isn't by any means. It had great sales and definitely moved some systems, but it is nowhere near as big or major as GoW. That was my point lol.

And I have to say I am still a little down about the Let's Go game I will follow it more closely during the following months. . But more looking forward to the game for next year easily. Also I see why you would have that logic of Let's Go maybe capturing the people who downloaded and played Go. BUT the only difference is Go was free and all people had to do was download it to their cell phones that they already had. That casual crowd in order to play Let's Go would have to shell out $300 for a Switch and then another $40-$60 for Let's Go. That is big for the casual gamer that does not/did not play to dive into. Especially only to play it casually......I am sure it will get some more people on board for sure from the casual crowd though.  It just won't be a big chuck imo.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

0D0 on 08 June 2018
Mnementh said:
0D0 said:

Besides, Nintendo only sells because of its own games, really. NSW is basically the 3DS successor and even 3DS with it's wonderful library didn't sell more than PS4 that is a home console in its lifetime. 

I don't know. I don't think as I wrote, that Switch will be big with third-parties like PS4, but still it seems the Switch can get better than Wii/WiiU/Gamecube/N64 in this regard.

Also sales: DS was also strongly carried by Nintendo, and it sold more than PS3. So Switch, were is it going? I really don't know, it can be 80 million or 120 million in the end. But the one thing I really doubt is a 3rd-party library comparable to Playstation.

I reckon DS is from a world that there is no more. All those casual gamers without a smartphone back then.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


0D0 on 08 June 2018
Ljink96 said:
quickrick said:

Its 3d mario, zelda, splatoon 2, and mario kart. Mario kart and 3d Mario will out sell all those games except for pokemon.

What are you talking about? lol Splatoon 2 is big but it's no Animal Crossing, Smash or Pokemon. Mario Kart is a port of a Wii U game that a lot of people already played but it sells because it's mario kart. 3D Mario never outsells Smash or Pokemon. Zelda is not a hardware pusher like Smash or Pokemon, or Animal Crossing. And none of them really stand a chance against a 2D Mario game done right. 

It doesn't matter which games will sell more in this case, its which ones have the potential to bring in new customers.

About MK and other Wii U ports, It's the opposite. A lot of people haven't played them and they came out as fresh new games for most people out there.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


xMetroid on 08 June 2018
GameAnalyser said:
It would mostly be neck to neck next year. Switch still has the potential to sell massive this holiday and next season too.

No way, PS4 is going down by millions this year from Sony's forecast and they had major sellers for Japan and the West. Next year PS4 will not have a chance in Japan and will most likely go down in the West too. Days gone won't be a GoW and Tlou will probably not even come out next year. It might even get release cross gen lmao.

 

Ps4 will be in its 6th year in 2019 i dont see it doing over 15 million anymore at this point and also because PS5 will already be in the talks a lot and maybe even announced.

 

I think Switch will have a close lead this year and a pretty comfortable lead in the next 2 years.



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zorg1000 on 08 June 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
Mnementh said:

Again: http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php

PS4-spike for MonHun and GoW visible. Not so much for Labo and Kirby.

I still count Pokemon Let's Go as a win. First, it still seems like a pretty cool game, but more importantly: with this they capture the people entering the IP through Pokemon Go. Basically Let's Go is a hybrid from Go and the core series. But as a core game is announced for 2019, this means Let's Go captures the more casual gamers, andd this means they have no need to do that in the core games. So the 2019 game has actually more potential and you have to fear less they incorporate feature s from Go, as they already have their own series for this now.

I think you missed my point when I said that about MHW, Kirby and LABO lol. MHW definitely had a spike but I was not putting it in the same category as GoW as being a Major or BIG title. Which it isn't by any means. It had great sales and definitely moved some systems, but it is nowhere near as big or major as GoW. That was my point lol.

And I have to say I am still a little down about the Let's Go game I will follow it more closely during the following months. . But more looking forward to the game for next year easily. Also I see why you would have that logic of Let's Go maybe capturing the people who downloaded and played Go. BUT the only difference is Go was free and all people had to do was download it to their cell phones that they already had. That casual crowd in order to play Let's Go would have to shell out $300 for a Switch and then another $40-$60 for Let's Go. That is big for the casual gamer that does not/did not play to dive into. Especially only to play it casually......I am sure it will get some more people on board for sure from the casual crowd though.  It just won't be a big chuck imo.

Well Pokemon Go did give 3DS a boost back in 2016, i know its not the exact same thing since 2DS was much cheaper than a Switch but i dont think its out of the question that some Go players would buy a Switch for a mainline title aimed at them.

Gotta remember PoGo was downloaded by like 800 million people, even if only half a percent of them buy a Switch for Lets Go, thats still 4 million people.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mnementh on 08 June 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:

And I have to say I am still a little down about the Let's Go game I will follow it more closely during the following months. . But more looking forward to the game for next year easily. Also I see why you would have that logic of Let's Go maybe capturing the people who downloaded and played Go. BUT the only difference is Go was free and all people had to do was download it to their cell phones that they already had. That casual crowd in order to play Let's Go would have to shell out $300 for a Switch and then another $40-$60 for Let's Go. That is big for the casual gamer that does not/did not play to dive into. Especially only to play it casually......I am sure it will get some more people on board for sure from the casual crowd though.  It just won't be a big chuck imo.

I'm not sure how successful Let's Go will be. But what I mean is, that Nintendo/Gamefreak tries with this game, so the next mainline entry can be free of stuff for casual players.



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TheBlackNaruto on 08 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

I think you missed my point when I said that about MHW, Kirby and LABO lol. MHW definitely had a spike but I was not putting it in the same category as GoW as being a Major or BIG title. Which it isn't by any means. It had great sales and definitely moved some systems, but it is nowhere near as big or major as GoW. That was my point lol.

And I have to say I am still a little down about the Let's Go game I will follow it more closely during the following months. . But more looking forward to the game for next year easily. Also I see why you would have that logic of Let's Go maybe capturing the people who downloaded and played Go. BUT the only difference is Go was free and all people had to do was download it to their cell phones that they already had. That casual crowd in order to play Let's Go would have to shell out $300 for a Switch and then another $40-$60 for Let's Go. That is big for the casual gamer that does not/did not play to dive into. Especially only to play it casually......I am sure it will get some more people on board for sure from the casual crowd though.  It just won't be a big chuck imo.

Well Pokemon Go did give 3DS a boost back in 2016, i know its not the exact same thing since 2DS was much cheaper than a Switch but i dont think its out of the question that some Go players would buy a Switch for a mainline title aimed at them.

Gotta remember PoGo was downloaded by like 800 million people, even if only half a percent of them buy a Switch for Lets Go, thats still 4 million people.

Yeah it did give the 3DS a boost and again I am positive some will jump on board for sure there is no doubt in my mind about that.

Mnementh said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

And I have to say I am still a little down about the Let's Go game I will follow it more closely during the following months. . But more looking forward to the game for next year easily. Also I see why you would have that logic of Let's Go maybe capturing the people who downloaded and played Go. BUT the only difference is Go was free and all people had to do was download it to their cell phones that they already had. That casual crowd in order to play Let's Go would have to shell out $300 for a Switch and then another $40-$60 for Let's Go. That is big for the casual gamer that does not/did not play to dive into. Especially only to play it casually......I am sure it will get some more people on board for sure from the casual crowd though.  It just won't be a big chuck imo.

I'm not sure how successful Let's Go will be. But what I mean is, that Nintendo/Gamefreak tries with this game, so the next mainline entry can be free of stuff for casual players.

Ahhhhh gotcha! Yeah that makes sense!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

LethalP on 08 June 2018
HoangNhatAnh said:
LethalP said:

The Switch isn't getting big AAA third party games, period. The games it does get are frankensteind and shit. Anything made to take advantage of PS4/X1 fully isn't coming to Switch. Even Monster Hunter World isn't coming to Switch because it's a technically ambitious game.

It's going to get plenty of Japanese software, but that's not going to hurt PS5. I don't understand what you think is going to start happening with the PS4, like it's just going to stop being relevant because the Switch will have some Japanese games in the future. And somehow that means PS5 is screwed?

 

 

Exactly, Doom, Wolfenstein 2, Ark, Paladin, Skyrim, SMTV, Bayonetta 3 are shitty small indie games for casual only 

Two of those are exclusives made for Switch, which is technically third party support but I was talking multiplat support of major AAA games.

WiiU got Batman Arkham City, CoD, Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect. Nintendo fans were bragging about third party support being adequate, but it didn't last. Nor did it ever really have full fledged support even in the beginning, nor does the Switch.

Tell me why Switch didn't get Mass Effect Andromeda, Ghost Recon, For Honor, Sniper Elite 4, Prey, Injustice 2, Shadow Warrior 2, Tekken 7, Dirt 4, Hellblade, Destiny 2, Shadow Of War, The Evil Within 2, CoD WWII, Battlefront II, Assassin's Creed Origins, Monster Hunter World, Far Cry 5, A Way Out, The Crew 2, Agony, Kingdom Come Deliverance, Shadow Of The Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Red Dead Redemption 2, CoD Black Ops 4, Battlefield V, Avengers game and many more, yet all of these come to PS4 and Xbox One almost as an obligation? There's something wrong when a system projected to outsell Xbox One in the next 24 months isn't getting the bulk of major releases in any given year. So far Switch hasn't gotten one of the major selling titles in 2018. Why? If Switch is such a fertile ground for third parties then why the fuck is this the case? 

 

 



fleischr on 08 June 2018

That was last year. Switch will likely walk all over the PS4 this holiday with Pokemon



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016