Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2013

non-gravity has asked me to do the 10 Week Countdown for him this year so he can have time to play actual video games. Sorry for the delay, I had a busy October, I will be very careful on being up to date for the next 12 weeks until the end of the year. Now without furthur delay, here is one of VGC's biggest threads!

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Here once again is the 10 week countdown. The idea is to make hardware sales predictions for the last and most interesting 10 weeks of the year. This year we will do predictions for PS3, X360, 3DS, PSV, WiiU, PS4, and One. However this thread can also basically be a discussion about what we all expect for the last ten weeks of the year. This feature has been somewhat of a tradition starting in 2007, having since been hosted by TWRoO, non-gravity, and myself.

This year the final ten weeks run from the week ending November 2nd to the week ending January 4th. Going by the calendar this is set 1 day earlier than last year, which was the 10 weeks ending January 5th. Black Friday has also shifted 1 week back as well since November ends at the end of the week now instead of the middle. This means that unlike previous years Black Friday falls in week 5 (last year it was week 4). (keep in mind that the "week ending" dates refer to the Saturday, which is when the tracking week ends for America and Europe, but Japan tracking ends on a Sunday, so add 1 day onto the dates below)

Week 1: 27th Oct – 2nd Nov
Week 2: 3rd Nov - 9th Nov
Week 3: 10th Nov - 16th Nov
Week 4: 17th Nov - 23rd Nov
Week 5: 24th Nov – 30th Nov
Week 6: 1st Dec – 7th Dec
Week 7: 8th Dec - 14th Dec
Week 8: 15th Dec – 21st Dec
Week 9: 22nd Dec - 28th Dec
Week 10: 29th Dec – 4th Jan

Here is a table showing important games and events that could affect the weekly sales. Please tell me if I'm missing something important. 




Here are some sales comparisons to help anyone wanting to make a prediction. Note, I obtained the following data from this article, and info from past 10 week countdowns. In this article, Q1-Q3 accounts for weeks 1-39 (non-gravity included a 40th week, which shouldn't be there).

 

The following show the weekly sales for the last 10 weeks of 2011 and 2012 as well as the 3 weeks leading up to and one week following them in thousands of units. The 2012 tables below has been updated, as of October 7th, 2013, the 2011 table, a year before that.




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How does the scoring work? 

When the VGChartz numbers come in I will take the percentage your predictions are off from these numbers and turn this into your score. Naturally the person with the lowest score has had the best prediction. In excel the formula for this looks like =MIN(ROUND(ABS(LN(Predicted/Real)*100);0);100). I will have weekly and overall rankings for PS3, X360, 3DS, Vita, WiiU, PS4, One, Consoles, Handhelds, Overall, and maybe others (suggestions?). Because the nature of VGChartz is that the numbers get adjusted over time I will declare a winner at the end of this competition in early January and in April after VGChartz has adjusted for console shipments reported in Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft’s Fiscal Year reports. I've limited the maximum score to 100. *'s mean you haven't made a prediction for that console, which will net you the full score of 100 to make things easier for me. 

If you want a copy of my Excel sheet you can send me a personal message with your email adress.

These are the predictions made:















What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database

For next year: This was a nice template-To make things easier for me, please vote in the following format (Copy and paste this template if you like). Please vote in 1,000's, i.e. write 50k if you expect a system to sell 50,000 units for a particular week

Platform Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10
360
                 
PS3                    
3DS                    
Vita                    
WiiU                    
PS4 - -                
One - - -              

The deadline to vote has passed.



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database

Here is a link to last years thread. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=148950

Next Week I'll post console/grouping specific charts to show how we all did week by week. Just for 1 week it's a bit redundant since the totals are the same numbers.

week4

week5



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database

Also, just because I can, if you want a good look at Q3 hardware sales, or other past quarters, to help you see the trends each console is facing, check out my:


Q3 Hardware Analysis



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database

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I will ask non-gravity for 2012 Results


A collection of links to all past threads:

2007 - 3p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=9053 - Zucas 

2008 - 8p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=45704 - BHR-3
Final Results - http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/5646/10-week-countdown-2008-results/ - BHR-3

2009 - 23+1p http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=89573 - 09tarheel
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117889 - koffieboon

2010 - 17+6p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117788 - Luthor
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4255275 - Carl2291

2011 - 26+1p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=135242 - Pineapple 
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4841711 - jonop

2012 - 38p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=148950 - Pineapple for the 2nd time!
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5752488 - Mr. Average

 



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database

I'm scared to post ...

Look forward to this.

It's Xbox Michael not X-Box, nobody official ever spells it that way!

 

I'm gonna through a tag this way and put up my predictions tomorrow.

 

Official NintenDomination Thread!

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=171220

Edit: I have posted the final results to the 2012 edition here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5752488



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I was 5th last year, as it turns out! Now it's time to enter the top 3