Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2012 - Final Results

Final results can be found on the last page of this thread here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5752488


Here once again is the 10 week countdown. The idea is to make hardware sales predictions for the last and most interesting 10 weeks of the year. This year we will do predictions for PS3, X360, Wii, 3DS and Vita. However this thread can also basically be a discussion about what we all expect for the last ten weeks of the year. This feature has been somewhat of a tradition starting in 2007, having since been hosted by TWRoO and myself.

Deadline for predictions is November 4th. You can still change your predictions as many times as you want until the deadline. 

This year the final ten weeks run from the week ending 3rd November to the week ending 5th December. Going by the calendar this is set 5 days later than last year, which was the 10 weeks ending 31th December. This means that unlike previous years Black Friday falls in week 4. (keep in mind that the "week ending" dates refer to the Saturday, which is when the tracking week ends for America and Europe, but Japan tracking ends on a Sunday, so add 1 day onto the dates below)


Week 1: 28th Oct – 3rd Nov
Week 2: 4th Nov - 10th Nov
Week 3: 11th Nov - 17th Nov
Week 4: 18th Nov - 24th Nov
Week 5: 25th Nov – 1st Dec
Week 6: 2nd Dec – 8th Dec
Week 7: 9th Dec - 15th Dec
Week 8: 16th Dec – 22nd Dec
Week 9: 23rd Dec - 29th Dec
Week 10: 30th Dec – 5th Jan

Here is a table showing important games and events that could affect the weekly sales.
 Please tell me if I'm missing something important. I'm not that good with Japanese releases or Nintendo games

 

Here are some sales comparisons to help anyone wanting to make a prediction. I've added PSP because it's numbers may be helpful in predicting the Vita. The table below has been updated 21 October 2011.

 

The following show the weekly sales for the last 10 weeks of 2010 and 2011 as well as the 3 weeks leading up to and one week following them in thousands of units. The tables below have been updated on 7 October 2011. 



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How does the scoring work? 

When the VGChartz numbers come in I will take the percentage your predictions are off from these numbers and turn this into your score. Naturally the person with the lowest score has had the best prediction. In excel the formula for this looks like =MIN(ROUND(ABS(LN(Predicted/Real)*100);0);100). I will have weekly and overall rankings for PS3, X360, Wii, 3DS, Vita, Consoles, Handhelds and Overall. Because the nature of VGChartz is that the numbers get adjusted over time I will declare a winner at the end of this competition in early January and in April after VGChartz has adjusted for console shipments reported in Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft’s Fiscal Year reports. I've limited the maximum score to 100. *'s mean you haven't made a prediction for that console, which will net you the full score of 100 to make things easier for me. 

If you want a copy of my Excel sheet you can send me a personal message with your email adress.

These are the predictions made:

Toddifer was late making predictions and is therefore marked as #



These are the results as of January. Final results as of October can be found at the end of the thread.



The final results to last year's edition can be found here. Congratulations to jonop.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4841711


A collection of links to all past threads:

2007 - 3p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=9053 - Zucas
2008 - 8p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=45704 - BHR-3
Final Results - http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/5646/10-week-countdown-2008-results/ - BHR-3
2009 - 23+1p http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=89573 - 09tarheel
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117889 - koffieboon
2010 - 17+6p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117788 - Luthor
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4255275 - Carl2291
2011 - 26+1p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=135242 - Pineapple
Final results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4841711 - jonop



So do we just predict what we thing the weekly sales will be each week for those 10 weeks?

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Nice... I'm making my predictions.

No Wii U???

PlayStation Nation

"Making haters eat crow since 1994"
Lord of Gran Turismo - Ethomaz the Undertracked

I'll post my predictions within a day or three

Tagging, will make predictions in the morning when I have time.

Great thread btw!

@NobleTeam360

Yes you can make predictions for each of the 10 weeks in a table format or something similar like this:

PS3: 340 - 380 - 380 - 830 - 550 - 640 - 800 - 890 - 570 - 430
360: 300 - 550 - 510 - 1300 - 670 - 820 - 990 - 1070 - 430 -270
Wii: 230 -280 -360 - 870 - 540 - 650 - 780 - 870 - 370 - 310
3DS: 340 - 340 - 430 - 890- 800 - 1090 - 1250 - 540 - 450 - 450
Vita: 110 - 110 - 140 - 200 - 170 - 210 - 240 - 310 - 200 - 200

@ethomaz

We won't do predictions for WiiU. I think for the purpose of this thread making predictions for WiiU is too much of a challenge.



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Oh ok thanks i will do it tomorrow.