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The TEN WEEK countdown - begins now!

Forums - Sales Discussion - The TEN WEEK countdown - begins now!

Well, this is it. The business end of the year. There are now 10 weeks left until the end of '07. I want to see some juicy predictions for consoles/handhelds - whatever you want really. I'll post some initial stats and thoughts.

Current/base sales:

 - Wii: 12.5m
 - 360: 11.9m
 - PS3: 5.1m

 - DS: 52.1m
 - PSP: 24.75m

(note - it looks like there is one more week of data missing, the most recent - so there may be 11 weeks of data to come b4 the end of the year)

Recent WW sales figures:

Week ending - 14th October
ConsoleWeeklyTotal
347,66251,913,199
207,52524,693,908
183,53612,416,590
172,55111,838,379
115,9535,063,822


Week ending - 7th Ocotber:

ConsoleWeeklyTotal
377,70751,565,537
241,96224,486,383
188,29911,665,828
180,94912,233,054
72,3174,947,869

...

A straight extrapolation (x10) averaged on both these weeks gives us:

 - DS: 3.6m
 - PSP: 2.2m
 - Wii: 1.81m
 - 360: 1.8m
 - PS3: 900k

(sales for remaining part of year)

...

This obviously doesn't take into account Xmas, nor extra Wii shipments, 360 sales/price fade, PS3 recent price cuts, new titles and more.

I'll give some quick predictions for Wii sales figures - someone else might like to do other consoles:

Week#1: 190k (week starting October 23rd)
Week#2: 300k (Galaxy in Japan)
Week#3: 250k
Week#4: 350k (Galaxy in US, 12th-19th November)
Week#5: 600k (Thanksgivin, big releases, Europe Galaxy?)
Week#6: 500k (26th Nov - 2nd Dec)
Week#7: 550k (3rd Dec - 9th Dec)
Week#8: 650k (10th Dec - 16nd Dec)
Week#9: 800k (17th Dec - 23nd Dec)
Week#10: 1.1m (24th Dec - 30nd Dec)

Total: 5,290k (5.3m)

Current figure: 12.5m + 5.3m --> 17.8m (end '07).

(note that if the week including Dec 31st is also included - that will sell another 600k, maybe 800k units - taking the overall figure to 18.6 -> 19.0m. Would be included in the NPD figure, so its probably fair to include it? Making it the 11th week, again excluding sales from this current week). 

or 18.6m ('end of 07, if including week that runs into '08 is included)



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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About the Wii you could be right but I think there will be NOT enough Wii's :s.






Nintendo will not have over 1.7 million Wii supply in December '07.



"Why isn't samus in a mario kart game?"

As you can see in my signature, these are the rough numbers I expect for end of 07...

Wii - 18,000,000
Xbox 360 - 14,000,000
PS3 - 6,500,000

Nintendo will not be stupid enough to let this holday seasons go by. They will have their shipping/production issues solved by then. Wii is (still) the hot item to get, and Nintendo could steal ALL the thunder from it's competitors with a bit of a price cut. 18m at the very least. And don't forget Super Mario Galaxy... remember that Gamecube had over 200% increas on Sunshine's release.



I'm not man enough to break it down by weeks, but here's what I think by months.


October US Sales:

Wii: 450K
360: 385K
PS3: 100K


November US Sales:

Wii: 780K
360: 565K
PS3: 340K


December US Sales:

Wii: 1.9 million
360: 1.4 million
PS3: 670K
 

Total:

Wii: 3.13 million
360: 2.35 million
PS3: 1.11 million

 

I also think the DS will win overall sales and the PS2 will squeeze in somewhere between the 360 and the PS3.



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plzdontbanme said:

Nintendo will not have over 1.7 million Wii supply in December '07.

They will easily have more than 1.7m. They are producing around 1.2m-1.5m / month at the moment, and are doing some obvious stockpiling.

They sold around 2m Wii's last year in December - and they have stated that they aim to have about double the overall holiday quantity this year (compared to last year).

My figures are all WW btw.

 

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Agree with Shams. Reggie himself said that supply would be unpreceded. I wouldn't be surprised if they supply even 5m.



plzdontbanme said:

Nintendo will not have over 1.7 million Wii supply in December '07.


 Ya, I seriously doubt the Wii will sell less than 2m in Dec this year, but feel free to come back and rub it in if we are wrong because I think I speak for shams and just about everyone else when I say we don't see it happening.

In any case currently the evidence points towards 3.5-4.5m consoles available in Dec, we can't be sure if they will all sell but I think there is more than an excellent chance that they will sell.

 



To Each Man, Responsibility

let's say :

Wii - 17,000,000
Xbox 360 - 14,500,000
PS3 - 7,500,000



Time to Work !

I'll keep it simple.

PS3: 1 million.
360: 2 million.
PSP: 3 million.
Wii: 4 million.
DS: 5 million.

PS2: Absolutey no idea.



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