Quantcast
Ten Week Countdown 2008!

Forums - Sales Discussion - Ten Week Countdown 2008!

To make a prediction about the last 10 weeks sales, scroll down to the second post and check out others predictions, then post your own and I will add it in.
You can also make a prediction bet for what the total sales of each console will be at the end of the year in the prediction league. If you make a mistake you can PM nordlead if you wish to edit them before November 3rd.

    No more predictions accepted    


Last year Shams did a 10 week countdown with a discussion on the last weeks of the year and some predictions on how each week would pan out. This year I am extending it to include more for the PS3 and Xbox 360.

Basically this thread can be a discussion about what we all expect for the last ten weeks of the year, and anyone willing can make a prediction for the run of weeks. (see next post for how to make predictions)

The way the weeks lay this year is a little odd, as what I am classing as the last week will span into the new year (week ending January 3rd) here is some information on the weeks and what lies in them. (keep in mind that the "week ending" date refer to the Saturday, which is when tracking weeks end for America and Europe, but Japan tracking ends on a Sunday)

Week
ending
Additional
info
Important Games
(Wii)
Important Games
(PS3)
Important Games
(X360)
1st Nov 80GB PS3 becomes available for Japan. US - Guitar Hero:WT
EU - 007:QoS
US - GH:WT
+ Fallout 3 + LBP
EU - 007:QoS + LBP
JPN - LBP + GTAIV
US - GH:WT
+ Fallout 3
EU - 007:QoS
JPN - GTAIV
8th Nov   US - 007:QoS US - 007:QoS
+ Res2
EU - MotorstormPR
US - 007:QoS
+ GeOW2
EU - GeOW2
15th Nov  

US - CoD:WaW +SW:CloneWars
EU - CoD + WiiMusic

US - CoD:WaW
EU - CoD:WaW
US - BanjoK
+ CoD:WaW
EU - BanjoK
+ CoD:WaW
22nd Nov   US - AC:CF
+ Sonic Unleashed
EU - NFS:Undercover
JPN - AC:City Folk
EU - NFS:U US - Left4D
EU - Left4D
+ NFS:U
29th Nov Includes Black Friday
for USA
  EU - Res2
JPN - PES 2009
JPN - PES 2009
6th Dec   EU - AC:City Folk    
13th Dec        
20th Dec Last Full week before
Christmas Day
     
27th Dec Includes the biggest
worldwide shopping days of the year
  JPN:White Knight Chronicles  
3rd Jan Spanning the New year,
Japan will unusually be
a much bigger part than usual.
     

If anyone wants to add any other information or games releasing that you think may affect the sales please post.

Sales comparisons to help anyone wanting to make a prediction.

Period Wii PS3 X360
w/e Jan6th - Sep29th. 2007
(Q1-Q3)
9,250,182
3,695,469
3,915,434
last 10 weeks. 2007 6,280,772 3,543,846 3,367,486
equivalent* 10 weeks. 2007 6,421,253 3,685,851 3,415,431
w/e Jan5th - Sep27th. 2008
(Q1-Q3)
13,579,284 6,784,593 5,291,216

*equivalent weeks correspond better to this years last 10 weeks, they are 10 weeks ending Jan 5th rather than Dec 29th)

    Rankings (Console and Overall)    
(see next post for the predictions these scores refer to)
Click here to see the in depth console breakdown.
The lower the score the better.

Rank Wii
Predictor
Wii
Points
PS3
Predictor
PS3
Points
X360
Predictor
X360
Points
Total
Predictor
Total
Points
1 BHR-3 92
BHR-3 370 Skeezer 136 BHR-3 663
2 Oyvoyvoyv 127
Veggie 407 TWRoO 137 Veggie 704
3 Veggie 139 TWRoO 437 Veggie 158 TWRoO 738
4 Zucas 161
Zucas 438 DMeisterJ 196 Zucas

816

5

TWRoO

164
Skeezer
592 BHR-3 201 Skeezer 922
6 DarthDevidem 170 DMeisterJ 644 Zucas 217 DarthDevidem 1054
7 Skeezer 205 DarthDevidem 655 DarthDevidem 229 DMeisterJ 1062
8 DMeisterJ 222
Oyvoyvoyv 723 Oyvoyvoyv 254 Oyvoyvoyv 1104

    Rankings (Weekly)   

Click here to see the in depth weekly breakdown.

Rank Week 1
Predictor
Week 1
Points
Week 2
Predictor
Week 2
Points
Week 3
Predictor
Week 3
Points
Week 4
Predictor
Week 4
Points
Week 5
Predictor
Week 5
Points
1 Veggie 4 TWRoO 40 (=) BHR-3 25 BHR-3 78 BHR-3 70
2 TWRoO 13 BHR-3 40 (=) Veggie 49 Veggie 85 DarthDev 73
3 Skeezer 16 Veggie 43 TWRoO 53 TWRoO 93 TWRoO 83
4 BHR-3 17 Skeezer 69 Skeezer 57 Skeezer 97 Oyvoyv 89
5 Zucas 34 DarthDev 82 Zucas 90 Zucas 104 Veggie 90
6 DarthDev 59 DMeisterJ 88 DarthDev 97 Oyvoyv 110 Zucas 96
7 DMeisterJ 83 Oyvoyv 102 DMeisterJ 101 DMeisterJ 114 DMeisterJ 102
8 Oyvoyv 85 Zucas 118 Oyvoyv 122 DarthDev 140 Skeezer 105
Rank Week 6
Predictor
Week 6
Points
Week 7
Predictor
Week 7
Points
Week 8
Predictor
Week 8
Points
Week 9
Predictor
Week 9
Points
Week 10
Predictor
Week 10
Points
1 Veggie 73 Zucas 61 DMeisterJ 82 Zucas 51 BHR-3 50
2 DMeisterJ 83 Veggie 68 Veggie 83 TWRoO 87 Zucas 77
3 BHR-3 85 (=) BHR-3 87 (=) Skeezer 89 BHR-3 94 Veggie 86
4 TWRoO 85 (=) TWRoO 87 (=) Zucas 98 Oyvoyv 98 TWRoO 89
5 Zucas 87 DMeisterJ 88 Oyvoyv 100 Skeezer 116 DarthDev 143
6 Oyvoyv 103 DarthDev 103 TWRoO 108 Veggie 123 (=) Skeezer 156
7 Skeezer 110 Skeezer 107 BHR-3 117 (=) DarthDev 123 (=) DMeisterJ 180
8 DarthDev 117 Oyvoyv 108 DarthDev 117 (=) DMeisterJ 141 Oyvoyv 187

 



Around the Network

Predictions

Here are 3 tables with the weeks and predictions people make (I will add a column for anyone brave enough to predict the full set)
Anyone predicting please post your predictions for each of the 10 weeks (for whichever console you wish) before the first weeks set of data starts appearing (likely 3rd or 4th November) This gives you time to check out each of the companies fiscal reports for the past quarter, which are all due out at the end of October, these may help in estimating how many consoles the big three expect to be shipping during the quarter. You can edit your predictions up until the first weeks data comes in, but after that they will remain.

Wii table 1

Week
ending
Equivalent
for 2007
Prediction
TWRoO
Prediction
Darth
Prediction
Oyvoyv
Prediction
Veggie
Prediction
DMeisterJ
Original
VGC figure
Final
Adjustment
Nov 1 293k 450k 415k 470k 490k 400k 486,409 485,528
Nov 8 280k 430k 410k 450k 420k 450k 527,317 554,462
Nov 15 457k 520k 450k 600k 600k 500k 603,408 649,259
Nov 22 **669k 650k 515k 610k 650k 550k 784,777 788,612
Nov 29 685k 1,050k 1,470k 1,550k 1,000k 1,000k 1,365,476 1,295,638
Dec 6 719k 1,100k 1,050k 1,150k 1,100k 1,200k 1,178,793 1,019,940
Dec 13 678k 1,450k 1,300k 1,320k 1,300k 1,550k 1,478,813 1,239,247
Dec 20 1,464k 2,200k 2,500k 2,320k 1,700k 2,100k 1,838,350 1,782,904
Dec 27 722k 1,950k 1,700k 1,900k 2,000k 2,450k 1,535,755 1,201,867
Jan 3 455k 1,000k 750k 850k 900k 1,050k 741,196 653,529
Total 6,422k 10,800k 10,560k 11,220k 10,260k 11,250k - -

Wii table 2

Week
ending
Equivalent
for 2007
Prediction
Zucas
Prediction
skeezer
Prediction
BHR-3
Original
VGC figure
Final
Adjustment
Nov 1 293k 400k 450k 485k 486,409 485,528
Nov 8 280k 450k 427k 495k 527,317 554,462
Nov 15 457k 500k 575k 560k 603,408 649,259
Nov 22 **669k 550k 841k 650k 784,777 788,612
Nov 29 685k 1,050k 863k 1,350k 1,365,476 1,295,638
Dec 6 719k 1,000k 905k 1,400k 1,178,793 1,019,940
Dec 13 678k 1,550k 1,050k 1,500k 1,478,813 1,239,247
Dec 20 1,464k 2,250k 2,050k 1,910k 1,838,350 1,782,904
Dec 27 722k 1,400k 1,800k 1,000k 1,535,755 1,201,867
Jan 3 455k 650k 1,050k 700k 741,196 653,529
Total 6,422k 9,800k 10,011k 10,050k - -


**Black Friday week last year... this year it is the week after. (the one I have the big jump up to 1,050k)


PS3 table 1

Week
ending
Equivalent
for 2007
Prediction
TWRoO
Prediction
Darth
Prediction
Oyvoyv
Prediction
Veggie
Prediction
DMeisterJ
Original
VGC figure
Final
Adjustment
Nov 1 159k 180k 210k 300k 200k 270k 192,229 193,957
Nov 8 229k 220k 300k 350k 240k 330k 209,239 192,398
Nov 15 246k 280k 310k 400k 300k 350k 210,406 207,560
Nov 22 **360k 350k 450k 450k 330k 400k 240,184 236,827
Nov 29 370k 520k 510k 550k 500k 570k 402,641 388,627
Dec 6 448k 550k 650k 650k 510k 600k

349,949

359,010
Dec 13 546k 700k 720k 750k 600k 700k 415,754 430,370
Dec 20 622k 950k 800k 800k 800k 750k 524,368 517,381
Dec 27 404k 750k 950k 750k 900k 850k 466,837 474,530
Jan 3 303k 400k 600k 550k 400k 550k 260,862 331,245
Total 3,687k 4,900k 5,500k 5,450k 4,780k 5,370k - -

PS3 table 2

Week
ending
Equivalent
for 2007
Prediction
Zucas
Prediction
Skeezer
Prediction
BHR-3
Original
VGC figure
Final
Adjustment
Nov 1 159k 225k 200k 180k 192,229 193,957
Nov 8 229k 350k 288k 230k 209,239 192,398
Nov 15 246k 350k 309k 250k 210,406 207,560
Nov 22 **360k 375k 452k 350k 240,184 236,827
Nov 29 370k 550k 500k 560k 402,641 388,627
Dec 6 448k 500k 590k 500k 349,949 359,010
Dec 13 546k 550k 710k 700k 415,754 430,370
Dec 20 622k 850k 825k 1,000k 524,368 517,381
Dec 27 404k 500k 925k 615k 466,837 474,530
Jan 3 303k 400k 520k 320k 260,862 331,245
Total 3,687k 4,650k 5,319k 4,705k - -


**Black Friday week last year... this year it is the week after. (the one I have the big jump up to 520k)


X360 table 1

Week
ending
Equivalent
for 2007
Prediction
TWRoO
Prediction
Darth
Prediction
Oyvoyv
Prediction
Veggie
Prediction
DMeisterJ
Original
VGC figure
Final
Adjustment
Nov 1 197k 200k 270k 250k 200k 250k 198,124 213,639
Nov 8 197k 300k 300k 310k 230k 300k 255,371 271,741
Nov 15 237k 300k 350k 370k 300k 330k 279,518 307,093
Nov 22 **360k 300k 350k 430k 300k 350k 435,625 405,422
Nov 29 346k 550k 480k 480k 480k 520k 800,140 724,925
Dec 6 427k 500k 500k 540k 500k 570k 645,749 584,128
Dec 13 510k 600k 600k 600k 650k 620k 739,922 682,112
Dec 20 590k 850k 650k 720k 700k 690k 931,999 879,493
Dec 27 330k 800k 700k 660k 800k 780k 784,969 735,500
Jan 3 222k 350k 300k 560k 300k 240k 341,994 377,957
Total 3,416k 4,750k 4,500k 4,820k 4,460k 4,650k - -

X360 table 2

Week
ending
Equivalent
for 2007
Prediction
Zucas
Prediction
Skeezer
Prediction
BHR-3
Original
VGC figure
Final
Adjustment
Nov 1 197k 200k 210k 175k 198,124 213,639
Nov 8 197k 350k 220k 190k 255,371 271,741
Nov 15 237k 300k 300k 280k 279,518 307,093
Nov 22 **360k 350k 425k 365k 435,625 405,422
Nov 29 346k 500k 450k 555k 800,140 724,925
Dec 6 427k 450k 520k 480k 645,749 584,128
Dec 13 510k 550k 670k 600k 739,922 682,112
Dec 20 590k 800k 727k 700k 931,999 879,493
Dec 27 330k 500k 800k 550k 784,969 735,500
Jan 3 222k 300k 400k 260k 341,994 377,957
Total 3,416k 4,300k 4,722k 4,115k - -


**Black Friday week last year... this year it is the week after. (the one I have the big jump up to 550k)

Additional predictions.
Here I will add any simpler predictions for those who don't want to spend time and effort for the whole 10 weeks.

Table 1
Prediction type
equiv'
for 2007
Prediction
TWRoO
Prediction
Darth
Prediction
Oyvoyv
Prediction
Veggie
Prediction
DMeisterJ
Original
VGC
Final
Adjustment
Full 10 weeks - Wii 6,422k 10,800k 10,560k 11,220k 10,260k 11,250k 10,540,294 9,671,166
Full 10 weeks - PS3 3,687k 4,900k 5,500k 5,450k 4,780k 5,370k 3,272,469 3,331,905
Full 10 weeks - 360 3,416k 4,750k 4,500k 4,820k 4,460k 4,650k 5,413,411 5,182,010
Best week - Wii 1,464k 2,200k 2,500k 2,220k 2,000k 2,450k 1,838,350 1,782,904
Best week -PS3 622k 950k 950k 800k 900k 850k 524,368 517,381
Best week -360 590k 850k 700k 720k 800k 780k 931,999 879,493
Table 2
Prediction type
equiv'
for 2007
Prediction
Zucas
Prediction
Skeezer
Prediction
BHR-3
Original
VGC
Final
Adjustment
Full 10 weeks - Wii 6,422k 9,800k 10,011k 10,050k 10,540,294 9,671,166
Full 10 weeks - PS3 3,687k 4,650k 5,319k 4,665k 3,272,469 3,331,905
Full 10 weeks - 360 3,416k 4,300k 4,722k 4,115k 5,413,411 5,182,010
Best week - Wii 1,464k 2,250k 2,050k 1,910k 1,838,350 1,782,904
Best week -PS3 622k 850k 925k 1,000k 524,368 517,381
Best week -360 590k 800k 800k 700k 931,999 879,493


isn't fallout on the ps3?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Wow, well done TWRoO. I'll post some prediction here too. Hopefully this thread will be a success.

 

By the way, if anyone wants to have a competition about predicting best for hardware and top 10, or 5 titles, I'd be willing to join :)



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

WHitE Knight chronicles comes on 25 december in Japan.....its VERY IMPORTANT for PS3

Fallout 3 is on PS3 too



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Around the Network

RES 2 comes in EU on November 4th......your dates are really wrong :(



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Well I go the dates from VGC... So yes, any that are wrong please correct me (isn't LBP delayed at the moment too btw)

At the moment I am trying to sort out this idiotic table function/post compatibility so it doesn't cut off the end of the table.



TWRoO said:
Well I go the dates from VGC... So yes, any that are wrong please correct me (isn't LBP delayed at the moment too btw)

At the moment I am trying to sort out this idiotic table function/post compatibility so it doesn't cut off the end of the table.

 

oof carefull that is hot stuff you are touching



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Where is ToS: DotNW



                       Thanks Blacksaber for the sig                  Tag:"Nintendo es toda la diversión de esta generación"

It fluctuates a bit, but usually around 35 to 45% of all sales for the year happen between the end of October and the end of December. To wit, last year's percentages were 34.94% of Wii sales, 42.38% of PS3 sales, and 38.09% of 360 sales in the weeks between the weeks ending 9 Nov and 28 Dec; if it were possible to get a breakdown from 31 Oct to 31 Dec, it'd be even closer to 35% to 45%.

That said, with estimated data inputted for the rest of the weeks of October, the spreadsheet gives me these projections:

Wii: 9,417,830 to 14,074,812
PS3: 4,677,739 to 6,985,509
360: 3,490,690 to 5,281,391

They'll probably turn out to be not too terribly accurate, because 2008 has done its damnedest to not to be anything like 2007, but we'll see.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.