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10 Week Countdown 2011 - End Results

Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2011 - End Results

On the original numbers Pineapple has become the January winner.

In May/June after the big three report their financial results I will take a look at adjusted numbers and declare another winner, as well as in October should another Countdown take place.

 

Here once again is the 10 week countdown, a feature TWRoO has hosted for the past 3 years. For this year however I will be your new host. This thread can basically be a discussion about what we all expect for the last ten weeks of the year.

This year the final ten weeks run from the week ending 29th October to the week ending 31st December. Going by the calendar this is set 1 day earlier than last year, which was the 10 weeks ending 1nd January. (keep in mind that the "week ending" dates refer to the Saturday, which is when tracking weeks end for America and Europe, but Japan tracking ends on a Sunday, so add 1 day onto the dates below)

Week 1: 23th Oct - 29th Oct
Week 2: 30th Oct - 5th Nov
Week 3: 6th Nov - 12th Nov
Week 4: 13th Nov - 19th Nov
Week 5: 20th Nov - 26th Nov
Week 6: 27th Nov – 3rd Dec
Week 7: 4th Dec - 10th Dec
Week 8: 11th Dec - 17th Dec
Week 9: 18th Dec - 24th Dec
Week 10: 25th Dec – 31st Dec

Here is a table showing important games and events that could affect the weekly sales.

 

Here are some sales comparisons to help anyone wanting to make a prediction. I've added DS because it's number may be helpful in predicting the 3DS. The first table has been updated 26 October 2011, while the others have been updated on 8 October 2011. 

The following show the weekly sales for the last 10 weeks of 2009 and 2010 as well as the 3 week leading up to them in thousands of units.

I want to thank TWRoO for all the work he's done hosting this in the past.



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How does the scoring work:

When the VGChartz numbers come in I will take the percentage your predictions are off from these numbers and turn this into your score. Naturally the person with the lowest score has had the best prediction. In excel the formula for this looks like =ROUND(ABS(AVERAGE(Real-Predicted)/Real;(Real-Predicted)/Real))*100;0). I will have weekly and overall rankings for Wii, X360, PS3, 3DS, Consoles and Overall. Because the nature of VGChartz is that the number get adjusted over time I will declare a winner at the end of this competition in early January and in April after VGChartz has adjusted for console shipments reported in Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft’s Fiscal Year reports. I've limited the maximum score to 100. *'s mean you haven't made a prediction for that console, which will net you the full score of 100 to make things easier for me.

If you want a copy of my Excel sheet you can send me a personal message with you email adress.

These are the predictions as made before 30 October 2011:




Final results as of 22 October 2012



Last year’s thread can be found here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117788  

 

Here are the adjusted results for the 10 Week Countdown 2010 courtesy of TWRoO:

Individual weeks: http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/8968/10wcweek.jpg

Compact weekly results: http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/9480/10wcweeks.jpg

Console results: http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/764/10wcconsole.jpg

Overall results: http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/5862/10wctotals.jpg

The above results are not counting the additional points from the 10-week total predictions. You can see what you each got in the 'total' column of the consoles picture. The numbers in those are multiplied by 3 to then get these final results:

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/4564/10wcfinals.jpg



Great work so far!

Tagged.



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Well done.

I hope I'm more successful this year.



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

I''m in this year as well.



Go buy Metroid OTHER M!

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COD is the only bundle left other then the UC3 and FFXIII-2 bundles that favors any consoles.

the Sky Rim, BF3, and Batman Arkham City bundles won't help PS3 or 360 much.

i think the GEARS boost is done for the 360 and PS3 will start to outsell 360 again for Oct.

Nov. favors MS only because of BF3 and COD, even with UC3, FFXIII-2, and the BF3 bundle for PS3.

nothing in Dec. so its anybodies guess, but over the yrs its favored MS and ninty but not every yr is the same.



Any of you want to put in an early prediction to show them how it's done? :)



I'll post the first version of my predictions in a few hours. This is like my fourth year doing this!



^_^