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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS2 is now discontinued after 12 Years.

thismeintiel on 13 January 2013
Michael-5 said:

But the thing is, the last 3 months, DS hasn't been down by 60%. Now that the 3DS has established itself, and $99 DS sales have begun to stabilize, I don't think DS sales will fall by that much. For the last few months, DS sales have only been down YoY by 30-40%. Last Week it was 36% WW, Quarter 4 of 2012 (A mass of 13 weeks) it was only down 34.1% - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016890

Most of that drop is because Japan has abandoned the DS now, but in USA the drop is much smaller, and since DS primarily in USA, we shouldn't expect much of a drop. DS dropped on 8.8% in USA from 2011 in Q4 2012 for this region. - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016891

IF 40% drops are crazy to you, then the DS is going crazy good, because it's dropping less then 40% lol.

So if DS continues to follow the pattern it's been holding recently, sales realistically shouldn't drop below 2 million annually for 2013. I think 2.5 million is very possible.

Like I argued previously, it's possible that the DS tops the current PS2 value within the next 2 years, 3 is almost certain, unless discontinued.

So the only thing worth debating is the validity of the article. IF PS2 is discontinued, it's very likely DS surpasses it. If not, then it's unlikely because PS2 still sold 2.92 million units in 2012, which isn't that much less then DS.

Also you can't say for certain that DS will not be on shelves in 2015. 3DS is completely backward compatible with DS games, so in 2015 it's very probable there will still be a sizable DS software market, and who could have predicted that the PS2 would have been sold, at a reasonable pace, until it's sucessors sucessor release. PS2 sold over 50 million units after being replaced, I don't think anyone of us would have predicted that in 2006. So DS could shock us like PS2 did.

And the last few months have been holiday shopping months, with special bundles and deals.  For it to still be down by 61% YOY, with it only being down 34% in Q4, it was down by well over 61% for the other 3 quarters (which include ~4 1/2 months of the DS being $99).  If you think the DS isn't going to drop like a stone from Jan-Nov, you're only kidding yourself.  So, even if the PS2 is discontinued WW, which I HIGHLY doubt, it still is next to impossible for the DS to reach 157.3-157.5M.

The scenerio I presented earlier was a rosy picture.  Here's a much more realistic one, and not even a worst case scenerio:

2012: The DS ends at ~154M shipped.

2013: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY.  ~155.5M shipped.

2014: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY. ~156.3M shipped.

2015: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY.  Is discontinued.  ~156.8M final numbers.

 

Personally, I don't see the decline staying flat YOY.  This is what I think it will do:

2012:The DS ends at ~154M shipped.

2013: The DS ends the year 65% down YOY.  Still ~155.5M shipped.

2014: The DS ends the year 69% down YOY.  Is discontinued.  ~156M shipped.



 

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Michael-5 on 14 January 2013
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:

But the thing is, the last 3 months, DS hasn't been down by 60%. Now that the 3DS has established itself, and $99 DS sales have begun to stabilize, I don't think DS sales will fall by that much. For the last few months, DS sales have only been down YoY by 30-40%. Last Week it was 36% WW, Quarter 4 of 2012 (A mass of 13 weeks) it was only down 34.1% - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016890

Most of that drop is because Japan has abandoned the DS now, but in USA the drop is much smaller, and since DS primarily in USA, we shouldn't expect much of a drop. DS dropped on 8.8% in USA from 2011 in Q4 2012 for this region. - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016891

IF 40% drops are crazy to you, then the DS is going crazy good, because it's dropping less then 40% lol.

So if DS continues to follow the pattern it's been holding recently, sales realistically shouldn't drop below 2 million annually for 2013. I think 2.5 million is very possible.

Like I argued previously, it's possible that the DS tops the current PS2 value within the next 2 years, 3 is almost certain, unless discontinued.

So the only thing worth debating is the validity of the article. IF PS2 is discontinued, it's very likely DS surpasses it. If not, then it's unlikely because PS2 still sold 2.92 million units in 2012, which isn't that much less then DS.

Also you can't say for certain that DS will not be on shelves in 2015. 3DS is completely backward compatible with DS games, so in 2015 it's very probable there will still be a sizable DS software market, and who could have predicted that the PS2 would have been sold, at a reasonable pace, until it's sucessors sucessor release. PS2 sold over 50 million units after being replaced, I don't think anyone of us would have predicted that in 2006. So DS could shock us like PS2 did.

And the last few months have been holiday shopping months, with special bundles and deals.  For it to still be down by 61% YOY, with it only being down 34% in Q4, it was down by well over 61% for the other 3 quarters (which include ~4 1/2 months of the DS being $99).  If you think the DS isn't going to drop like a stone from Jan-Nov, you're only kidding yourself.  So, even if the PS2 is discontinued WW, which I HIGHLY doubt, it still is next to impossible for the DS to reach 157.3-157.5M.

The scenerio I presented earlier was a rosy picture.  Here's a much more realistic one, and not even a worst case scenerio:

2012: The DS ends at ~154M shipped.

2013: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY.  ~155.5M shipped.

2014: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY. ~156.3M shipped.

2015: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY.  Is discontinued.  ~156.8M final numbers.

 

Personally, I don't see the decline staying flat YOY.  This is what I think it will do:

2012:The DS ends at ~154M shipped.

2013: The DS ends the year 65% down YOY.  Still ~155.5M shipped.

2014: The DS ends the year 69% down YOY.  Is discontinued.  ~156M shipped.

You realize that in 2011 DS was still the current handheld system for a few months, and the year before that it was the current system for the entire year? Of course 2012 will be down heavily from 2012, the DS was replaced.

However now that sales have stabilized at a new point with 3DS stealing most of the sales, you shouldn't expect sales to drop 60% YoY. Like the last few months show (comparing a period after 3DS released to another matching period after 3DS has released), DS is only falling 30-40%. Less in USA, so even with just USA DS can top PS2 in 2 or worst case 3 years, iff PS2 is discontinued. If it continues to sell, DS will probably never top PS2.

DS only gets replaced once, you can't use the heavy fall DS saw when it was replaced and expect that type of drop to happen annually. That's like expecting PS3 sales to grow by 2 million every year after the slim releases. No, these types of things only affect 1 years sales, maybe 2 like Kinect.

PS2 fell hard when it replaced, and then it stabilized. At a much higher point then DS, but it sold 13-8 million units for like 5 years after being replaced. DS will sell 2-3 million units for the next few years, count on it.



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Michael-5 on 15 January 2013
thismeintiel said:

I guess this is why people predict sales. When Wii released, I'm sure most people didn't expect it to become the best selling console this gen, and potentially overtake PS1. People thought PS3 would crash at the start, or surpass the 360 well before 2008, and every year people make predictions for the year.

I for instance did not realize Wii sales would crash so hard like they did in 2011. I thought Wii would have surpassed PS1 by now, but now I am not entirely sure.

If DS begins to fall harder, like it did when 3DS was released, and be down YoY 60%, then even if PS2 is discontinued, you probably are right DS won't surpass PS2.

In my scenario, where DS is down 30-40% YoY for the next 3 years, DS could surpass PS2 IFF PS2 has been discontinued.

Anything could happen, like GBA, DS sales could crash in 2013, and it could be discontinued by 2014. Or DS could follow a pattern more similar to PS2 and taper off. DS won't sell 50 million units after being replaced like PS2 did, and it doesn't have as much support in Latin America, but it's already at 15 million post 3DS, what's anohter 5-10 million more?

Anything can happen.

 

Care to make a bet like I did with ethomaz?



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MonstaMack on 15 January 2013

I don't see why Wii can't outsell the PS1.

The DS will surpass the PS2 at It's current figures in the long run but it would be nice to know a total amount of PS2's that have been shipped now that they are discontinued.



It's just that simple.

Player1x3 on 15 January 2013
MonstaMack said:
I don't see why Wii can't outsell the PS1.

The DS will surpass the PS2 at It's current figures in the long run but it would be nice to know a total amount of PS2's that have been shipped now that they are discontinued.


It's only disconnected in Japan...



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Michael-5 on 17 January 2013

Not to beat a dead horse, but for 2013 the DS is only down 37.7%. DS should be able to break 2 million units in 2013, and then it only needs 1 million more to top PS2, if it truly is discontinued WW. However outside of Latin America, I haven't heard of PS2 selling anywhere, even at Sony Stores.

Wii I'm worried for, it needs 2.69 million more to top Wikipedia's PS1 sales number of 102.49 million. Wii only just broke 5 million in 2012, and is down 72.5% from 2012. If this keeps up, Wii will only sell 1.25 million units in 2013, and I just don't see sales increasing in 2014, or Wii being on the market with such poor sales for long.



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Areym on 17 January 2013

The DS can pass it all he wants, it don't make no difference. The PS2 is fucking legendary, the DS is a handheld where your mom plays cooking mama or your dad tries to keep away his dementia by playing brain age.

LONG LIVE THE PS2!



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