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thismeintiel on 13 January 2013
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Michael-5 said:

But the thing is, the last 3 months, DS hasn't been down by 60%. Now that the 3DS has established itself, and $99 DS sales have begun to stabilize, I don't think DS sales will fall by that much. For the last few months, DS sales have only been down YoY by 30-40%. Last Week it was 36% WW, Quarter 4 of 2012 (A mass of 13 weeks) it was only down 34.1% - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016890

Most of that drop is because Japan has abandoned the DS now, but in USA the drop is much smaller, and since DS primarily in USA, we shouldn't expect much of a drop. DS dropped on 8.8% in USA from 2011 in Q4 2012 for this region. - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016891

IF 40% drops are crazy to you, then the DS is going crazy good, because it's dropping less then 40% lol.

So if DS continues to follow the pattern it's been holding recently, sales realistically shouldn't drop below 2 million annually for 2013. I think 2.5 million is very possible.

Like I argued previously, it's possible that the DS tops the current PS2 value within the next 2 years, 3 is almost certain, unless discontinued.

So the only thing worth debating is the validity of the article. IF PS2 is discontinued, it's very likely DS surpasses it. If not, then it's unlikely because PS2 still sold 2.92 million units in 2012, which isn't that much less then DS.

Also you can't say for certain that DS will not be on shelves in 2015. 3DS is completely backward compatible with DS games, so in 2015 it's very probable there will still be a sizable DS software market, and who could have predicted that the PS2 would have been sold, at a reasonable pace, until it's sucessors sucessor release. PS2 sold over 50 million units after being replaced, I don't think anyone of us would have predicted that in 2006. So DS could shock us like PS2 did.

And the last few months have been holiday shopping months, with special bundles and deals.  For it to still be down by 61% YOY, with it only being down 34% in Q4, it was down by well over 61% for the other 3 quarters (which include ~4 1/2 months of the DS being $99).  If you think the DS isn't going to drop like a stone from Jan-Nov, you're only kidding yourself.  So, even if the PS2 is discontinued WW, which I HIGHLY doubt, it still is next to impossible for the DS to reach 157.3-157.5M.

The scenerio I presented earlier was a rosy picture.  Here's a much more realistic one, and not even a worst case scenerio:

2012: The DS ends at ~154M shipped.

2013: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY.  ~155.5M shipped.

2014: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY. ~156.3M shipped.

2015: The DS ends the year 60% down YOY.  Is discontinued.  ~156.8M final numbers.

 

Personally, I don't see the decline staying flat YOY.  This is what I think it will do:

2012:The DS ends at ~154M shipped.

2013: The DS ends the year 65% down YOY.  Still ~155.5M shipped.

2014: The DS ends the year 69% down YOY.  Is discontinued.  ~156M shipped.