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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS3 and 360 gap grow or close in 2011?

landguy1 on 01 February 2011
Darth Tigris said:

Well, it's been 4 years and the PS3 has cut the lead about 1 million.  At this rate?  No.  

When this year is over, though, there will be several things that we'll likely look back on as factors that either cause the gap to grow, stay the same or shrink (likely all slight).

1) Price cuts - What will be more potent, a $199 PS3 or K360?  Not saying either will surely happen, but I can pretty much guarantee that whatever price point the base PS3 drops to, the K360 will be the same.

2) Kinect and Move 2nd gen software - This is more pinned on MS, because Sony hasn't proved to be committed YET to pushing dedicated AAA Move software.  Kinect 2nd gen software will either cause sales to increase substantially or maybe drop slightly.  It'll still be popular, but whether it'll take sales away from the PS3 will remain to be seen.

3) 3DS and NGP - The cost of these are comparable to new consoles. Will they cut into home console sales?  Will the NGP in particular take attention away from the PS3 regarding Sony's marketing efforts?

4) The Economy - It could get worse.  2010 saw a dip in sales and revenue, so the trend could continue.

My mostly limited and probably useless take overall?  That the gap will INCREASE, but not significantly.  It'll stay close enough to give zealots of both sides hope that they're false god will still win ...

Wow, your take is steals my thoughts almost exactly.  I also think that at the end of the year, the Wii will obviously still lead the 360, but by 2-3 million less.  The 360 will probably add another million to its lead.  But, it will mostly depend on whether M$ has some significant Kinect software at some point...



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homer on 01 February 2011
Michael-5 said:
DarkintheLight said:

The gap is going to close for sure, MS is just out of ammo as far as games go, I don't see kinect having very good legs and you can only advertise so much before people get annoyed, ps3 has a ton of games coming the one thing about that is that most of them are sequels to a game thats already on ps3, (same with 360 and the few games it has) frankly I think the last guardian is going to be the best system seller, it's pretty much the only thing that stands out as not being more of the same out of pretty much every game thats going to be announced on the systems (wii and pc included) at any-rate ps3 has been outselling 360 pretty consistently yearly and this year the odds seem stacked in Sony's favor 

 So Kingdoms, Gears 3, Forza 4, some cool Kinect exclusives like Panzer Dragoon, and one more big title, and I think MS's lineup has just as much software as PS3.

I strongly disagree. When you compare the sheer amount of quality software announced for the ps3, there is no comparsion at this point. MS software looks bleak at the moment. It will get better, but as of right now, they lose hands down. As for the rest of your points in your original post, I agree.

Note:All my statements are refferring to the software announced for this year.



"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." -My good friend Mark Aurelius

homer on 01 February 2011
kowenicki said:
homer said:
Michael-5 said:

 So Kingdoms, Gears 3, Forza 4, some cool Kinect exclusives like Panzer Dragoon, and one more big title, and I think MS's lineup has just as much software as PS3.

I strongly disagree. When you compare the sheer amount of quality software announced for the ps3, there is no comparsion at this point. MS software looks bleak at the moment. It will get better, but as of right now, they lose hands down. As for the rest of your points in your original post, I agree.

Note:All my statements are refferring to the software announced for this year.


as ever I shall respond with... 

you are allowed to buy games already out you know...  new adopters are buying the back catalogue too.

the 360 has a more highly rated game library than any other current gen console.

 

What highly rated exclusives are there? The ps3 also has a splendid back catalogue. Shall we start a list war?



"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." -My good friend Mark Aurelius

Michael-5 on 01 February 2011
DarkintheLight said:
Michael-5 said:
 

Oh The Last Guardian, may become GOTY, I love ICO games, I'm just pointing out it's no system seller. It's a niche game, like Heavy Rain, which was also heavily praised.

As for how well it's going to sell, I dunno. Shadow of the Colossus was also mega hyped like this game, and it sold 1 million (but VGC doesn't have EMEAA data, so maybe close to 2 million?). VGC doesn't even have ICO sales data, but I bet that game sold under 1 million. Still 1-2 million is probably the best stis game will sell, and judging from Heavy Rains performance, I think thats about right.

As for the lead growing or shrinking, man you had a long run-on sentance. Anyway, I don't want to bring any hate, but I don't think Sony has that many more exclusive titles in it's lineup. They just have a lot more sequels, where MS has a bunch of new IP's that I've never heard of. E.G. Dungeon Heros, by Firefly studios is suppose to release in 2010 for the 360. Firefly is a new developer owned by MS, so how will this game fair? I unno. We know about how well Killzone 3, InFamous 2 and even the Last Guardian will fair, but what about Huxley, and FPS by a Korean company called Webzen is support to be exclusive for 360, but when is it coming out? and when/if it is released, will it be a hit?

The number of games Sony and MS have actually are about equel if you look into it, just you're probably nowhere nearly as hyped for Prey 2 or MechWarrior as you are Killzone 3, or LBP2.

Number of games aside, we only care about system sellers here, even a game as big as LBP2 failed to bring PS3 console sales above 360 console sales, so we know the only real contenders here are Forza 4, Gears 3, and Uncharted 3. Killzone 3 is getting about the same pre-orders as Marvel vs. Capcom 3 for PS3 or Bulletstorm for the 360, so I doubt it will make much of a console pushing impact, and well I can't think of anything else that will sell over 3 million units. Resistance 2 only just broke 2 million, and we really don't know much about Kingdoms for the 360. The Last Guardian, Twisted Metal and InFamous 2 are likely to all sell under 2 million, and only budge console sales by a bit, and realistically speaking multiplatform titles probably balance out the differences between PS3/360 (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Marvel vs. Capcom 3, Batman, Dead Space 2, Metal Gear Solid: Rising, etc).

Personally I think the difference will grow, unless Uncharted 3 tears apart Gears 3 in reviews (fans will compare as they are both 3rd person shooters). 360 has more console pushing titles, and if a Halo 1 remake or something else big is mentioned, 360 could have a very very strong fall. Ontop of that Kinect is looking to get some good software support (Already Project Dragon, Steel Batallion, and Gears of War Exile are announced for 2010). If 360 can manage to stay above PS3 on a weekly basis, it should dominate the PS3 come fall IMO.

You math again is way off, at the very most 360 will have 10 games that aren't on ps3 too (atleast not yet) and no 360 doesn't have more console pushing titles, the vast majority of people who want halo and gears and forza already have a 360, twisted metal and last guardian are more console sellers then uncharted 3 and the next halo at this point just because their fanbases don't have a ps3 yet, MechWarrior is probably a timed exclusive (3rd party, pc/360) as well as others that people like you will be calling 360 exclusive and 360 can't manage to stay above ps3 on a weekly basis, ps3 already started outselling 360 on a weekly basis, and ps3 has alot of new IPs and stuff we haven't heard much about coming in 2010 too they are just getting overshadowed, I'm guessing at least 25 ps3 exclusives will be out by the end of the year 

I think your giving too much credit to the average consumer, people in general are dumb. When people see a new Uncharted, Gears, Halo, Forza, or Gran Turismo title, it's a system seller regardless. I'm just getting a Wii now and Super Mario Galaxy 2 was one of the games that pushed me over. Yes a sequel because I now know I can get 2 3D Mario titles, but in reality DKCR, Metroid Prime 3, and Pikmin 3 were really bigger factors.

Twisted Metal, and The Last Guardian are not well heard of games to those who don't already own a PS3. They are library filling titles, for either franchise fans, or people who are well aware of the PS3 library. I mean the tie ratio for the more modern home consoles (PS2, PS3, 360, Xbox) is about 10, meaning the average PS3 owner owns 10 games, for the person without a PS3 so far, chances are they won't get more then 10 games, and I just don't see Twisted Metal being so impactful that it will lure new console buyers. I say this as a big TM fan (I own TM 1-4, Black, Small Brawl and Head On for the PS2).

The Last Guardian will bring in new gamers, but again I see this as a library filling title, a must have game for those who are well informed. This is not going to be a blockbuster hit (in terms of sales), and increase the popularity of the Playstation image that much.

Halo and Gran Turismo on the other hand are more then just games, they are trends in culture. I'm not a big CoD fan, but all my friends play it, so I got Black Ops. A lot of people who have friends who own a 360, who maybe love Gears of War, maybe passed on the 360 for one reason or another in the past (too expensive, waiting on a price cut, waiting for reliability to go up, or a slim model, etc) might be tempted to play.

It's like in movies, if they made an Avatar 2, a lot more people would go see the movie just based off name then a different AAA title. Even if they never seen the first, everyone else has and is planning on seeing the second.

Hype builds sales, so naturally the bigger budget, high volume hyped games will sell the most consoles. So Uncharted 3 is by far the biggest System seller the PS3 has.

I mean LBP2 is bigger then TM, and 360 still outsold the PS3 (marginally) on the launch week on LBP2. I think a similar situation will happen for Killzone 3, as well as TM, The Last Guardian, Mech Warrior, XCOM, Prey 2, InFamous 2, and so on.

MechWarrior will likely be a timed exclusive, I agree, but we don't know for certain. A lot of games people thought would be timed exclusive, stayed exclusive. E.G. The Last Remnant, and se far Splinter Cell Conviction. So for now it's fair to say exclusive. I mean I beleive FFXIII Versus will also eventually go multiplatform, but I don't stop calling it a PS3 exclusive, not at all.

Also no PS3 is not outselling the 360 on a weekly basis, 360 was on shortages in the start of January due to the increased volume of sales in the christmas period. Haven't you noticed the 360 had a steep drop at the start of January and been leveling off more slowly then all the other consoles? MS themselves said that shortages won't be met until at earliest February, so in reality the 360 is outselling the PS3 now, but not by much.

2011 PS3/360 games:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3875415

Tell me if I missed any or if you disagree on how well each game will sell.



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Rawnchie14 on 01 February 2011

I think that it'll remain the same or close to the same.  I think any chance to rid of the gap, is close to gone.  If the PS3 ever caught up, it'll be way way later.  I attribute it solely to Kinect.

Think about it, anyone who bought the consoles for the exclusives that gamers like we care about, already have their console of choice, or both.  We have to think of it like this, who hasn't got one of these consoles?  A vast majority would be Wii owners, or non-gamers.

The exclusive lists you guys dish out won't get anyone to jump out of their chair on go "Oh snap, i need the console now so I can play THAT specific game!"  Let's get real folks.  That kind of prediction for console sales spikes works early in a console's life cycle, but at this point... who really as gamers, waited this long for an exclusive they like with all the games before that have came out on both?  REALLY.

The market is booming off of newbies, lighter gamers, and media buffs.



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Michael-5 on 01 February 2011
Rawnchie14 said:

I think that it'll remain the same or close to the same.  I think any chance to rid of the gap, is close to gone.  If the PS3 ever caught up, it'll be way way later.  I attribute it solely to Kinect.

Think about it, anyone who bought the consoles for the exclusives that gamers like we care about, already have their console of choice, or both.  We have to think of it like this, who hasn't got one of these consoles?  A vast majority would be Wii owners, or non-gamers.

The exclusive lists you guys dish out won't get anyone to jump out of their chair on go "Oh snap, i need the console now so I can play THAT specific game!"  Let's get real folks.  That kind of prediction for console sales spikes works early in a console's life cycle, but at this point... who really as gamers, waited this long for an exclusive they like with all the games before that have came out on both?  REALLY.

The market is booming off of newbies, lighter gamers, and media buffs.

I think the mega titles like Gears, Halo, CoD, Uncharted, Forza, and Gran Turismo will bring in a few new gamers. I don't like CoD that much, but bought Black Ops because I loved MW1 so much and all my friends play Halo. Chances are these 360/PS3 potential buyers have friends who own a 360/PS3 and know about Halo, or Uncharted. When a new installment of the franchise is released and all their friends play it, they may be inticed to get an HD console to play that game. They may have passed up the HD console during an older installment, but that may have been due to a variety of reasons including price, or the fact they just got a Wii.

Also anything released on Kinect could really push consoles as Kinect is still new and a lot of people may still be interested in it.



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mundus6 on 01 February 2011
DarkintheLight said:
Michael-5 said:
DarkintheLight said:
Michael-5 said:
DarkintheLight said:

The gap is going to close for sure, MS is just out of ammo as far as games go, I don't see kinect having very good legs and you can only advertise so much before people get annoyed, ps3 has a ton of games coming the one thing about that is that most of them are sequels to a game thats already on ps3, (same with 360 and the few games it has) frankly I think the last guardian is going to be the best system seller, it's pretty much the only thing that stands out as not being more of the same out of pretty much every game thats going to be announced on the systems (wii and pc included) at any-rate ps3 has been outselling 360 pretty consistently yearly and this year the odds seem stacked in Sony's favor 

You realize, ICO and Shadow of the Colossus, the two other games from the same franchise only sold 1 million units? Shadow of the Colossus was hyped just as much, The Last Guardian won't be any more of a system seller then Twisted Metal.

Also we dunno MS's Kinect lineup, and MS always announces a big title mid year (Forza 3, Gears 2 in the past 2 years). So Kingdoms, Gears 3, Forza 4, some cool Kinect exclusives like Panzer Dragoon, and one more big title, and I think MS's lineup has just as much software as PS3. Even then on a salesfront, MS holiday exclusive lineup will outsell PS3's, the only mass media PS3 exclusive is Uncharted 3. If Rumors about a Halo remake are true, then MS has 3, 5 million plus sellers this fall (one may sell 10 million) compared to Sony's maybe 1.

People used your arguement in 2008 and 2009, and in the end MS only the PS3 Slim/price cut gave PS3 the edge in 2009, software has always been fairly even,

Forgot about twisted metal lol, while not selling much on their own they were pretty high praised and last guardian is being hyped pretty good I have a feeling it's going to sell alot better then it's predecessors and again it stands out more then most, though you are right about twisted metal it just slipped my mind since we know nothing about it, and I actually looked at MSes studios and 3rd party affiliations and they only have like 2 maybe 3 studios that might be working on full fledge games that has a chance of being released this year (that we don't know about) and I think you're forgetting that ps3 has over 20 exclusives most of which are atleast a million sellers, 5 doesn't = 20 and yes the individual 360 titles will probably sell more but I've always wondered if one of the reasons for that is lack of competition among exclusives and overall Sony's will bring in more sales, and although software support seems about even sometimes alot of the games that made it even end up on ps3 later which makes it uneven but people have sort attention spans so usually end up ignoring it 

Oh The Last Guardian, may become GOTY, I love ICO games, I'm just pointing out it's no system seller. It's a niche game, like Heavy Rain, which was also heavily praised.

As for how well it's going to sell, I dunno. Shadow of the Colossus was also mega hyped like this game, and it sold 1 million (but VGC doesn't have EMEAA data, so maybe close to 2 million?). VGC doesn't even have ICO sales data, but I bet that game sold under 1 million. Still 1-2 million is probably the best stis game will sell, and judging from Heavy Rains performance, I think thats about right.

As for the lead growing or shrinking, man you had a long run-on sentance. Anyway, I don't want to bring any hate, but I don't think Sony has that many more exclusive titles in it's lineup. They just have a lot more sequels, where MS has a bunch of new IP's that I've never heard of. E.G. Dungeon Heros, by Firefly studios is suppose to release in 2010 for the 360. Firefly is a new developer owned by MS, so how will this game fair? I unno. We know about how well Killzone 3, InFamous 2 and even the Last Guardian will fair, but what about Huxley, and FPS by a Korean company called Webzen is support to be exclusive for 360, but when is it coming out? and when/if it is released, will it be a hit?

The number of games Sony and MS have actually are about equel if you look into it, just you're probably nowhere nearly as hyped for Prey 2 or MechWarrior as you are Killzone 3, or LBP2.

Number of games aside, we only care about system sellers here, even a game as big as LBP2 failed to bring PS3 console sales above 360 console sales, so we know the only real contenders here are Forza 4, Gears 3, and Uncharted 3. Killzone 3 is getting about the same pre-orders as Marvel vs. Capcom 3 for PS3 or Bulletstorm for the 360, so I doubt it will make much of a console pushing impact, and well I can't think of anything else that will sell over 3 million units. Resistance 2 only just broke 2 million, and we really don't know much about Kingdoms for the 360. The Last Guardian, Twisted Metal and InFamous 2 are likely to all sell under 2 million, and only budge console sales by a bit, and realistically speaking multiplatform titles probably balance out the differences between PS3/360 (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Marvel vs. Capcom 3, Batman, Dead Space 2, Metal Gear Solid: Rising, etc).

Personally I think the difference will grow, unless Uncharted 3 tears apart Gears 3 in reviews (fans will compare as they are both 3rd person shooters). 360 has more console pushing titles, and if a Halo 1 remake or something else big is mentioned, 360 could have a very very strong fall. Ontop of that Kinect is looking to get some good software support (Already Project Dragon, Steel Batallion, and Gears of War Exile are announced for 2010). If 360 can manage to stay above PS3 on a weekly basis, it should dominate the PS3 come fall IMO.

You math again is way off, at the very most 360 will have 10 games that aren't on ps3 too (atleast not yet) and no 360 doesn't have more console pushing titles, the vast majority of people who want halo and gears and forza already have a 360, twisted metal and last guardian are more console sellers then uncharted 3 and the next halo at this point just because their fanbases don't have a ps3 yet, MechWarrior is probably a timed exclusive (3rd party, pc/360) as well as others that people like you will be calling 360 exclusive and 360 can't manage to stay above ps3 on a weekly basis, ps3 already started outselling 360 on a weekly basis, and ps3 has alot of new IPs and stuff we haven't heard much about coming in 2010 too they are just getting overshadowed, I'm guessing at least 25 ps3 exclusives will be out by the end of the year


EH??? Guess you count move games then, since if you count Kinect games 360 probably also has those numbers.



gergroy on 01 February 2011

wow at the people talking about games announced in 2011 affecting system sales.  Really, at this point in a consoles life, new games don't really move systems.  You'll see slight bumps, but nothing that is going to affect the gap in the long term.  



Michael-5 on 01 February 2011
gergroy said:

wow at the people talking about games announced in 2011 affecting system sales.  Really, at this point in a consoles life, new games don't really move systems.  You'll see slight bumps, but nothing that is going to affect the gap in the long term.  


I think large titles still affect console sales, and a strong supply of exclusives keeps people talking about their respective consoles.

However with strong multiplatform titles (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Batman, Driver, NFS, etc) I think there is enough talk among HD games.



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DarkintheLight on 01 February 2011
Michael-5 said:
DarkintheLight said:
Michael-5 said:
 

Oh The Last Guardian, may become GOTY, I love ICO games, I'm just pointing out it's no system seller. It's a niche game, like Heavy Rain, which was also heavily praised.

As for how well it's going to sell, I dunno. Shadow of the Colossus was also mega hyped like this game, and it sold 1 million (but VGC doesn't have EMEAA data, so maybe close to 2 million?). VGC doesn't even have ICO sales data, but I bet that game sold under 1 million. Still 1-2 million is probably the best stis game will sell, and judging from Heavy Rains performance, I think thats about right.

As for the lead growing or shrinking, man you had a long run-on sentance. Anyway, I don't want to bring any hate, but I don't think Sony has that many more exclusive titles in it's lineup. They just have a lot more sequels, where MS has a bunch of new IP's that I've never heard of. E.G. Dungeon Heros, by Firefly studios is suppose to release in 2010 for the 360. Firefly is a new developer owned by MS, so how will this game fair? I unno. We know about how well Killzone 3, InFamous 2 and even the Last Guardian will fair, but what about Huxley, and FPS by a Korean company called Webzen is support to be exclusive for 360, but when is it coming out? and when/if it is released, will it be a hit?

The number of games Sony and MS have actually are about equel if you look into it, just you're probably nowhere nearly as hyped for Prey 2 or MechWarrior as you are Killzone 3, or LBP2.

Number of games aside, we only care about system sellers here, even a game as big as LBP2 failed to bring PS3 console sales above 360 console sales, so we know the only real contenders here are Forza 4, Gears 3, and Uncharted 3. Killzone 3 is getting about the same pre-orders as Marvel vs. Capcom 3 for PS3 or Bulletstorm for the 360, so I doubt it will make much of a console pushing impact, and well I can't think of anything else that will sell over 3 million units. Resistance 2 only just broke 2 million, and we really don't know much about Kingdoms for the 360. The Last Guardian, Twisted Metal and InFamous 2 are likely to all sell under 2 million, and only budge console sales by a bit, and realistically speaking multiplatform titles probably balance out the differences between PS3/360 (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Marvel vs. Capcom 3, Batman, Dead Space 2, Metal Gear Solid: Rising, etc).

Personally I think the difference will grow, unless Uncharted 3 tears apart Gears 3 in reviews (fans will compare as they are both 3rd person shooters). 360 has more console pushing titles, and if a Halo 1 remake or something else big is mentioned, 360 could have a very very strong fall. Ontop of that Kinect is looking to get some good software support (Already Project Dragon, Steel Batallion, and Gears of War Exile are announced for 2010). If 360 can manage to stay above PS3 on a weekly basis, it should dominate the PS3 come fall IMO.

You math again is way off, at the very most 360 will have 10 games that aren't on ps3 too (atleast not yet) and no 360 doesn't have more console pushing titles, the vast majority of people who want halo and gears and forza already have a 360, twisted metal and last guardian are more console sellers then uncharted 3 and the next halo at this point just because their fanbases don't have a ps3 yet, MechWarrior is probably a timed exclusive (3rd party, pc/360) as well as others that people like you will be calling 360 exclusive and 360 can't manage to stay above ps3 on a weekly basis, ps3 already started outselling 360 on a weekly basis, and ps3 has alot of new IPs and stuff we haven't heard much about coming in 2010 too they are just getting overshadowed, I'm guessing at least 25 ps3 exclusives will be out by the end of the year 

I think your giving too much credit to the average consumer, people in general are dumb. When people see a new Uncharted, Gears, Halo, Forza, or Gran Turismo title, it's a system seller regardless. I'm just getting a Wii now and Super Mario Galaxy 2 was one of the games that pushed me over. Yes a sequel because I now know I can get 2 3D Mario titles, but in reality DKCR, Metroid Prime 3, and Pikmin 3 were really bigger factors.

Twisted Metal, and The Last Guardian are not well heard of games to those who don't already own a PS3. They are library filling titles, for either franchise fans, or people who are well aware of the PS3 library. I mean the tie ratio for the more modern home consoles (PS2, PS3, 360, Xbox) is about 10, meaning the average PS3 owner owns 10 games, for the person without a PS3 so far, chances are they won't get more then 10 games, and I just don't see Twisted Metal being so impactful that it will lure new console buyers. I say this as a big TM fan (I own TM 1-4, Black, Small Brawl and Head On for the PS2).

The Last Guardian will bring in new gamers, but again I see this as a library filling title, a must have game for those who are well informed. This is not going to be a blockbuster hit (in terms of sales), and increase the popularity of the Playstation image that much.

Halo and Gran Turismo on the other hand are more then just games, they are trends in culture. I'm not a big CoD fan, but all my friends play it, so I got Black Ops. A lot of people who have friends who own a 360, who maybe love Gears of War, maybe passed on the 360 for one reason or another in the past (too expensive, waiting on a price cut, waiting for reliability to go up, or a slim model, etc) might be tempted to play.

It's like in movies, if they made an Avatar 2, a lot more people would go see the movie just based off name then a different AAA title. Even if they never seen the first, everyone else has and is planning on seeing the second.

Hype builds sales, so naturally the bigger budget, high volume hyped games will sell the most consoles. So Uncharted 3 is by far the biggest System seller the PS3 has.

I mean LBP2 is bigger then TM, and 360 still outsold the PS3 (marginally) on the launch week on LBP2. I think a similar situation will happen for Killzone 3, as well as TM, The Last Guardian, Mech Warrior, XCOM, Prey 2, InFamous 2, and so on.

MechWarrior will likely be a timed exclusive, I agree, but we don't know for certain. A lot of games people thought would be timed exclusive, stayed exclusive. E.G. The Last Remnant, and se far Splinter Cell Conviction. So for now it's fair to say exclusive. I mean I beleive FFXIII Versus will also eventually go multiplatform, but I don't stop calling it a PS3 exclusive, not at all.

Also no PS3 is not outselling the 360 on a weekly basis, 360 was on shortages in the start of January due to the increased volume of sales in the christmas period. Haven't you noticed the 360 had a steep drop at the start of January and been leveling off more slowly then all the other consoles? MS themselves said that shortages won't be met until at earliest February, so in reality the 360 is outselling the PS3 now, but not by much.

2011 PS3/360 games:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3875415

Tell me if I missed any or if you disagree on how well each game will sell.

Blame it on shortages all you want the fact is ps3 outsold 360 as for your other points there are alot of twisted metal fans, and there hasn't been a twisted metal out since ps2 (same with GT5) Last Guardian is a bit of a wild card, it already has more hype and attention then it should, and it has it because it's predecessors were such high quality, also shadow of the collosus was the last big ps2 game, so anyone who has a ps2 who has played those games will be looking at a ps3 and it can easily be a factor in tipping anyones scale through sheer uniqueness and high praise as for Uncharted and Killzone the only people I can see new titles to is 360 owners, at anyrate I feel Sony has all their basis covered, and MS is seriously lagging they have a few games that MIGHT become noteworthy (some of it MS themselves has no stake in) but I just don't see it coming close to beating Sony's line-up and frankly I don't see how you can either, the few games that might be 360 exclusive and might be released in 2010 we know next to nothing about it could be last remenant all over again (was just too bad and did too poorly to bother finishing the port) and conviction hasn't been on the market for a year yet so that could still go, MS has had several year exclusives (to the day)