PS3 sales didn't even peak, it didn't even hit the magical pricetag of 199$/euros. When the PS3 hits 199$, expect it to do 20 million consoels a year.

The gap is going to close for sure, MS is just out of ammo as far as games go, I don't see kinect having very good legs and you can only advertise so much before people get annoyed, ps3 has a ton of games coming the one thing about that is that most of them are sequels to a game thats already on ps3, (same with 360 and the few games it has) frankly I think the last guardian is going to be the best system seller, it's pretty much the only thing that stands out as not being more of the same out of pretty much every game thats going to be announced on the systems (wii and pc included) at any-rate ps3 has been outselling 360 pretty consistently yearly and this year the odds seem stacked in Sony's favor 

You realize, ICO and Shadow of the Colossus, the two other games from the same franchise only sold 1 million units? Shadow of the Colossus was hyped just as much, The Last Guardian won't be any more of a system seller then Twisted Metal.

Also we dunno MS's Kinect lineup, and MS always announces a big title mid year (Forza 3, Gears 2 in the past 2 years). So Kingdoms, Gears 3, Forza 4, some cool Kinect exclusives like Panzer Dragoon, and one more big title, and I think MS's lineup has just as much software as PS3. Even then on a salesfront, MS holiday exclusive lineup will outsell PS3's, the only mass media PS3 exclusive is Uncharted 3. If Rumors about a Halo remake are true, then MS has 3, 5 million plus sellers this fall (one may sell 10 million) compared to Sony's maybe 1.

People used your arguement in 2008 and 2009, and in the end MS only the PS3 Slim/price cut gave PS3 the edge in 2009, software has always been fairly even,

Well, it's been 4 years and the PS3 has cut the lead about 1 million.  At this rate?  No.  

When this year is over, though, there will be several things that we'll likely look back on as factors that either cause the gap to grow, stay the same or shrink (likely all slight).

1) Price cuts - What will be more potent, a $199 PS3 or K360?  Not saying either will surely happen, but I can pretty much guarantee that whatever price point the base PS3 drops to, the K360 will be the same.

2) Kinect and Move 2nd gen software - This is more pinned on MS, because Sony hasn't proved to be committed YET to pushing dedicated AAA Move software.  Kinect 2nd gen software will either cause sales to increase substantially or maybe drop slightly.  It'll still be popular, but whether it'll take sales away from the PS3 will remain to be seen.

3) 3DS and NGP - The cost of these are comparable to new consoles. Will they cut into home console sales?  Will the NGP in particular take attention away from the PS3 regarding Sony's marketing efforts?

4) The Economy - It could get worse.  2010 saw a dip in sales and revenue, so the trend could continue.

My mostly limited and probably useless take overall?  That the gap will INCREASE, but not significantly.  It'll stay close enough to give zealots of both sides hope that they're false god will still win ...

Forgot about twisted metal lol, while not selling much on their own they were pretty high praised and last guardian is being hyped pretty good I have a feeling it's going to sell alot better then it's predecessors and again it stands out more then most, though you are right about twisted metal it just slipped my mind since we know nothing about it, and I actually looked at MSes studios and 3rd party affiliations and they only have like 2 maybe 3 studios that might be working on full fledge games that has a chance of being released this year (that we don't know about) and I think you're forgetting that ps3 has over 20 exclusives most of which are atleast a million sellers, 5 doesn't = 20 and yes the individual 360 titles will probably sell more but I've always wondered if one of the reasons for that is lack of competition among exclusives and overall Sony's will bring in more sales, and although software support seems about even sometimes alot of the games that made it even end up on ps3 later which makes it uneven but people have sort attention spans so usually end up ignoring it 

I don't think the PS3 can handle another pricecut anytime soon. Sony's gaming machine had just come out of the red. They've been taking losses for years due to thier loss leader strategy (which hasn't worked out, look at the path the wii took).

Oh The Last Guardian, may become GOTY, I love ICO games, I'm just pointing out it's no system seller. It's a niche game, like Heavy Rain, which was also heavily praised.

As for how well it's going to sell, I dunno. Shadow of the Colossus was also mega hyped like this game, and it sold 1 million (but VGC doesn't have EMEAA data, so maybe close to 2 million?). VGC doesn't even have ICO sales data, but I bet that game sold under 1 million. Still 1-2 million is probably the best stis game will sell, and judging from Heavy Rains performance, I think thats about right.

As for the lead growing or shrinking, man you had a long run-on sentance. Anyway, I don't want to bring any hate, but I don't think Sony has that many more exclusive titles in it's lineup. They just have a lot more sequels, where MS has a bunch of new IP's that I've never heard of. E.G. Dungeon Heros, by Firefly studios is suppose to release in 2010 for the 360. Firefly is a new developer owned by MS, so how will this game fair? I unno. We know about how well Killzone 3, InFamous 2 and even the Last Guardian will fair, but what about Huxley, and FPS by a Korean company called Webzen is support to be exclusive for 360, but when is it coming out? and when/if it is released, will it be a hit?

The number of games Sony and MS have actually are about equel if you look into it, just you're probably nowhere nearly as hyped for Prey 2 or MechWarrior as you are Killzone 3, or LBP2.

Number of games aside, we only care about system sellers here, even a game as big as LBP2 failed to bring PS3 console sales above 360 console sales, so we know the only real contenders here are Forza 4, Gears 3, and Uncharted 3. Killzone 3 is getting about the same pre-orders as Marvel vs. Capcom 3 for PS3 or Bulletstorm for the 360, so I doubt it will make much of a console pushing impact, and well I can't think of anything else that will sell over 3 million units. Resistance 2 only just broke 2 million, and we really don't know much about Kingdoms for the 360. The Last Guardian, Twisted Metal and InFamous 2 are likely to all sell under 2 million, and only budge console sales by a bit, and realistically speaking multiplatform titles probably balance out the differences between PS3/360 (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Marvel vs. Capcom 3, Batman, Dead Space 2, Metal Gear Solid: Rising, etc).

Personally I think the difference will grow, unless Uncharted 3 tears apart Gears 3 in reviews (fans will compare as they are both 3rd person shooters). 360 has more console pushing titles, and if a Halo 1 remake or something else big is mentioned, 360 could have a very very strong fall. Ontop of that Kinect is looking to get some good software support (Already Project Dragon, Steel Batallion, and Gears of War Exile are announced for 2010). If 360 can manage to stay above PS3 on a weekly basis, it should dominate the PS3 come fall IMO.

PS3 didn't even cut the lead by 1 million. It did for a bit at the start of 2010, but 360 had a stronger fall and reduced it.

1) A K360 at $200 will be just as impactful as a $200 PS3, I agree, but realistically were only looking at $250 for both.

2) I agree, but Sony is making Move Hero's and Sorcery, so it's not like they aren't supporting it.

3) This might cut sales, so any gap would be thus smaller (but scaled to the same ratio), but not a big deal

4) I think your first two points were solid

I agree with your last comment 100%

You math again is way off, at the very most 360 will have 10 games that aren't on ps3 too (atleast not yet) and no 360 doesn't have more console pushing titles, the vast majority of people who want halo and gears and forza already have a 360, twisted metal and last guardian are more console sellers then uncharted 3 and the next halo at this point just because their fanbases don't have a ps3 yet, MechWarrior is probably a timed exclusive (3rd party, pc/360) as well as others that people like you will be calling 360 exclusive and 360 can't manage to stay above ps3 on a weekly basis, ps3 already started outselling 360 on a weekly basis, and ps3 has alot of new IPs and stuff we haven't heard much about coming in 2010 too they are just getting overshadowed, I'm guessing at least 25 ps3 exclusives will be out by the end of the year 

I reckon we´ve reached a point in sales were the gap is insignificant. I mean between both consoles there are almost a 100 million hardware sold and a gap of 4 million and something. Is so irrelevant, and when we think about it, the Cerviche predictions are not the farfetched. A difference of 500k is very possible. So I don´t know why discuss over this, is not going to affect software sales, nor desv suport.

When the new gen comes, I bet we wont a have more than a 5% difference between both HD twins, no mather who´s in front,while WIi will be miles ahead in LTD, while third in Yearly sales.