Will the PS3 and 360 gap grow or close in 2011?

[Michael-5]

DarkintheLight said:

Michael-5 said:

 

Oh The Last Guardian, may become GOTY, I love ICO games, I'm just pointing out it's no system seller. It's a niche game, like Heavy Rain, which was also heavily praised.

As for how well it's going to sell, I dunno. Shadow of the Colossus was also mega hyped like this game, and it sold 1 million (but VGC doesn't have EMEAA data, so maybe close to 2 million?). VGC doesn't even have ICO sales data, but I bet that game sold under 1 million. Still 1-2 million is probably the best stis game will sell, and judging from Heavy Rains performance, I think thats about right.

As for the lead growing or shrinking, man you had a long run-on sentance. Anyway, I don't want to bring any hate, but I don't think Sony has that many more exclusive titles in it's lineup. They just have a lot more sequels, where MS has a bunch of new IP's that I've never heard of. E.G. Dungeon Heros, by Firefly studios is suppose to release in 2010 for the 360. Firefly is a new developer owned by MS, so how will this game fair? I unno. We know about how well Killzone 3, InFamous 2 and even the Last Guardian will fair, but what about Huxley, and FPS by a Korean company called Webzen is support to be exclusive for 360, but when is it coming out? and when/if it is released, will it be a hit?

The number of games Sony and MS have actually are about equel if you look into it, just you're probably nowhere nearly as hyped for Prey 2 or MechWarrior as you are Killzone 3, or LBP2.

Number of games aside, we only care about system sellers here, even a game as big as LBP2 failed to bring PS3 console sales above 360 console sales, so we know the only real contenders here are Forza 4, Gears 3, and Uncharted 3. Killzone 3 is getting about the same pre-orders as Marvel vs. Capcom 3 for PS3 or Bulletstorm for the 360, so I doubt it will make much of a console pushing impact, and well I can't think of anything else that will sell over 3 million units. Resistance 2 only just broke 2 million, and we really don't know much about Kingdoms for the 360. The Last Guardian, Twisted Metal and InFamous 2 are likely to all sell under 2 million, and only budge console sales by a bit, and realistically speaking multiplatform titles probably balance out the differences between PS3/360 (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Marvel vs. Capcom 3, Batman, Dead Space 2, Metal Gear Solid: Rising, etc).

Personally I think the difference will grow, unless Uncharted 3 tears apart Gears 3 in reviews (fans will compare as they are both 3rd person shooters). 360 has more console pushing titles, and if a Halo 1 remake or something else big is mentioned, 360 could have a very very strong fall. Ontop of that Kinect is looking to get some good software support (Already Project Dragon, Steel Batallion, and Gears of War Exile are announced for 2010). If 360 can manage to stay above PS3 on a weekly basis, it should dominate the PS3 come fall IMO.

You math again is way off, at the very most 360 will have 10 games that aren't on ps3 too (atleast not yet) and no 360 doesn't have more console pushing titles, the vast majority of people who want halo and gears and forza already have a 360, twisted metal and last guardian are more console sellers then uncharted 3 and the next halo at this point just because their fanbases don't have a ps3 yet, MechWarrior is probably a timed exclusive (3rd party, pc/360) as well as others that people like you will be calling 360 exclusive and 360 can't manage to stay above ps3 on a weekly basis, ps3 already started outselling 360 on a weekly basis, and ps3 has alot of new IPs and stuff we haven't heard much about coming in 2010 too they are just getting overshadowed, I'm guessing at least 25 ps3 exclusives will be out by the end of the year 

I think your giving too much credit to the average consumer, people in general are dumb. When people see a new Uncharted, Gears, Halo, Forza, or Gran Turismo title, it's a system seller regardless. I'm just getting a Wii now and Super Mario Galaxy 2 was one of the games that pushed me over. Yes a sequel because I now know I can get 2 3D Mario titles, but in reality DKCR, Metroid Prime 3, and Pikmin 3 were really bigger factors.

Twisted Metal, and The Last Guardian are not well heard of games to those who don't already own a PS3. They are library filling titles, for either franchise fans, or people who are well aware of the PS3 library. I mean the tie ratio for the more modern home consoles (PS2, PS3, 360, Xbox) is about 10, meaning the average PS3 owner owns 10 games, for the person without a PS3 so far, chances are they won't get more then 10 games, and I just don't see Twisted Metal being so impactful that it will lure new console buyers. I say this as a big TM fan (I own TM 1-4, Black, Small Brawl and Head On for the PS2).

The Last Guardian will bring in new gamers, but again I see this as a library filling title, a must have game for those who are well informed. This is not going to be a blockbuster hit (in terms of sales), and increase the popularity of the Playstation image that much.

Halo and Gran Turismo on the other hand are more then just games, they are trends in culture. I'm not a big CoD fan, but all my friends play it, so I got Black Ops. A lot of people who have friends who own a 360, who maybe love Gears of War, maybe passed on the 360 for one reason or another in the past (too expensive, waiting on a price cut, waiting for reliability to go up, or a slim model, etc) might be tempted to play.

It's like in movies, if they made an Avatar 2, a lot more people would go see the movie just based off name then a different AAA title. Even if they never seen the first, everyone else has and is planning on seeing the second.

Hype builds sales, so naturally the bigger budget, high volume hyped games will sell the most consoles. So Uncharted 3 is by far the biggest System seller the PS3 has.

I mean LBP2 is bigger then TM, and 360 still outsold the PS3 (marginally) on the launch week on LBP2. I think a similar situation will happen for Killzone 3, as well as TM, The Last Guardian, Mech Warrior, XCOM, Prey 2, InFamous 2, and so on.

MechWarrior will likely be a timed exclusive, I agree, but we don't know for certain. A lot of games people thought would be timed exclusive, stayed exclusive. E.G. The Last Remnant, and se far Splinter Cell Conviction. So for now it's fair to say exclusive. I mean I beleive FFXIII Versus will also eventually go multiplatform, but I don't stop calling it a PS3 exclusive, not at all.

Also no PS3 is not outselling the 360 on a weekly basis, 360 was on shortages in the start of January due to the increased volume of sales in the christmas period. Haven't you noticed the 360 had a steep drop at the start of January and been leveling off more slowly then all the other consoles? MS themselves said that shortages won't be met until at earliest February, so in reality the 360 is outselling the PS3 now, but not by much.

2011 PS3/360 games:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3875415

Tell me if I missed any or if you disagree on how well each game will sell.