How about you stop prentending you like you have any semblence of the future with your quick dismissal and acknowledge the fact that you don't know whether it will be a success or not?
Natal could very well end up a failure but not because of some over-saturated, exhausted casual market that it expands upon.
Last I checked, discussion of future trends and sales was a top pasttime on these boards....
So I take this as, " you got nothing? " ( as in nothing concrete to add to the discussion, aside from the obvious fact that it is within the realm of possibility that I might be wrong? )