Mnementh said: About the stock exchange thing: I thought a little bit about it: If it is implemented the way, that you buy shares of games, and get back profit for sold copies, then it means that accuracy in your predictions is not the most important. You always bet on the AAA-games (Halo, SMG) and you have nothing to lose. If it is implemented more like a bet on horseraces it could work. That means you an amount on a game AND an outcome in weekly sales. If you predicted the sales good... and the others did it too, than you will earn only a little bit more as what you have bet. If you predict good... and the others are totally off, then you will win a good amount. That way you dont need a multiplicator for games that was recently released against games that are out for a long time: If the game is more difficult to predict, more people will be offf with their prediction. I like the idea, that you will get more, if you predict early. I'm a little bit concerned about the possibility to lose all or most of the wealth. That would mean that it is very hard to get back into the game. A suggestion how it could work: Every week get's a player 100 coins (or whatever amount) if (and only if) he enters the prediction league. You can bet on previously chosen games (by game-mod) and all hardware. You can bet until your coins (100 for this weeks and your winnings from earlier games) are emptied. You enter your bet and your prediction. For every game and piece of hardware the bets will be summed up and used as winnings. You get higher winnings for better accuracy, earlier bet and higher amount of your bet.

 I like the idea of a betting system. Such a system should be easy to implement. And you can bet on everything: Place of a game, units sold, place of hardware etc. Automated betting system are quite common on the betting sites.

Don't give 100 coins per week, unless it's replinishing, and cumulative with every other week.

Just allow everyone to place bets with as many, or few, coins as they want, and show the multipliers they get for placing a bet on a given game, at a given time.

mrstickball said: Don't give 100 coins per week, unless it's replinishing, and cumulative with every other week.

Yes, I think it should add to the winnings from the previous weeks. It is only some amount to keep you in the game, if you lost all or most in a bet that had a bad outcome and it is also a price for risking your already won money (you wont get it if you are not playing).

By the way, Vgchartz now encompasses approximately 0.01% of all internet users across the world.

You should be awful proud of yourself.

Sincerely, i like the actual League...

I'd just prefer to have 5 games each week: three for the hardware predictions in each region, and two for the software in US and Japan, but with 20 titles instead of 10...

So, the value of each hardware prediction would be 20 points, and of each software prediction, 5 points...

Some of these new ideas are not bad, but that new "bet system" seems a little bit too complex: better keep things simple and clear, with everyone doin' predictions on the same games...

English is only my second language, one of the reason (with available time) why i don't post more often... and i had to read this thread two times to really understand what it was all about: not a good sign...

But of course, i'll join the League, whatever happens... just like Justine Hénin can beat the Williams sisters and become world's N°1, there's no reason why i can't be N°1 in the Prediction League: Belgium, ftw... :))

68soul said: Sincerely, i like the actual League...

I like the actual league too - that's why my first post in this thread. I hope the actual league will stay, at least some time until the new league proves itself.

Some of these new ideas are not bad, but that new "bet system" seems a little bit too complex: better keep things simple and clear, with everyone doin' predictions on the same games...

The prediction league is a game, so it is a game-design-decision. I have also fears of complexity, but more I fear that a new system could be no challenge. There are some possibilities: It could be too unfair - one wrong decision (as simple as wrongly typed numbers) can ruin most of yourwealth and make it more difficult to play on a level where you can compete. If it is too easy to get big returns the early players get so much that they can never be reached. So I hope ioi puts much thoughts into balancing the game well.

But of course, i'll join the League, whatever happens... just like Justine Hénin can beat the Williams sisters and become world's N°1, there's no reason why i can't be N°1 in the Prediction League: Belgium, ftw... :))

No, I will become #1. The predictions league was for me the main reason to create an account to this site and it is the reason I look at this site regularly. So I want the best for this game. So I hope the new league will be better than the old. Hmm, can someone hire Miyamoto too design the predictions league?

I think if someone ran out of money you could declare bankruptcy. You'd get an asterisk by your name saying you have failed before.

I think it also might be interesting to allow members to give each other money. Take for instance the personal bets that go on around here. People could make one-one bets that could also be automated. Of course I'm sure that I'm just making it very complicated and taking away from the prediction league. This could help people who have lost it all come back by a few well placed personal bets. Some members may even feel kind enough to loan or bail someone out.

I definitely like the idea of earning money by updating games. I wouldn't want people to make money by voting on games, though. We already have enough of a problem with that.

mrstickball said: I would say go with allowing them to predict whatever they want, whenever they want, more like SimExchange. That might make it less hassle for people to mull through alot of things. Or, go further: allow people to wager "on a line" - get a higher bonus if they predicted a box of games (ie, 10-20 games on a week for a given region). That way they can go with the easy accurate one or two-off guesses, or run the marathon, and possibly win safer, or win alot better.

I really think there needs to be a multiplier based on how many weeks the game has been on the chart at the very least...  Otherwise many people will just bet on the "safe" games that have been around a while...  We want to encourage people to be on the new releases that are somewhat harder to track.

ioi said: Well if you lost it all, you could get someone to give you a loan or something I like the idea of writing some code that basically gives you odds on different "bets" and you basically get the winnings based on the weighting. For example You might want to bet on Wii Fit first week sales in Japan. It's a new entry, you are betting 2 weeks before release, you get odds of, say, 4:1. You make your prediction, we calculate accuracy as normal and use it along with the odds to give the final result. So if you're 90% accurate, you get 0.9 * 4 of whatever you bet back. Something like that anyway, I guess it's pretty tough to lose with that system, can have a think about how to make it work...

Why not a real betting system? Something like that:

You can bet that a game sells following the first week:

 

<5000

5-10k

10-20k

20-40k

etc. 

And like in the real world if someone bets on one, the system changes the rates afterwards (how many you get if your right). That system would be very intresting, because you calculate a probability in what range a game will end not one magic number. Such a system would be great and a nice addition, because it is diffrent enough to exisiting systems. 1 or 2 admins would be enough (e.g. Mods) a weekly report in the news, that sounds so fine to me. 

 

How about a bet where a single winner takes all for closest guess on software/hardware release?
The entry cost will be the same for everyone. Cost may/may not differ per item.
All bets are hidden until winner is declared. This is to avoid people betting 200,001 after seeing a 200,000.
However, the number of bets per item will be shown to show how many participants.
There will also be a top 10 list for most entries on top. Hot items will get even more bets this way.
There will be ties if the difference in guesses are equal.
For example, SMG Japan 300,000 for first 7 days.
John guessed 301,000 and Lisa guessed 299,000.
Since both are 1,000 units away from the actual numbers, they both win and split the pot.

Things that could be up for bets.
First day sales on software.
First week sales.
Weekly hardware.
Monthly hardware.
Monthly pie charts changes among the big 3. (Total percentage of market shares)
etc...