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Forums - Sales Discussion - FFXIII first shipment is only 1 million???

Untamoi on 16 December 2009
jacks81x said:
johnsobas said:
jacks81x said:
Hidalgo said:
Hm, I was assuming that FFXIII would make 1.8 million (more or less) on it's first week, just like the last 5 Final Fantasy games did.

I can't even understand it... (no, I can't admit the "make-it-rare" theory this time).

The last few FF games were released to a much larger install base.  If using similar attach rate, FFXIII selling anything close to 1 million would already be a huge success relatively speaking.

FF12 sold 1.8m in its first week to a PS2 install base of about 20m.  That's an attach rate of under 10%.  If FF13 can sell 1 million copies in its first week, that's an attach rate of 25%, which is amazing for any game, let alone a dying genre like JRPGs. 


actually FF7 and FF10 were released on small userbases too, FF7 was able to sell 2 million first week on a similar userbase to ps3 right now.  Yes PS1 ended up with a huge userbase, but FF7 had most of its sales in the first few weeks, still front loaded.  This is Final Fantasy we're talking about, userbase actually doesn't matter that much. 

Well, I'm not going to compare it to FF7 since that game was revolutionary in many ways.  No FF since has matched the success that FF7 had.  Also, since the late 90's the interest in JRPGs has gradually regressed.  So IMO FF13 is in no way going to get anywhere near the sales numbers that FF7 had.

 

Second, when FFX came out on July 19, 2001, the PS2 had an install base of 5.1 million.  So that's one more million units that what the PS3 will have when FF13 comes out tomorrow.

I wouldn't say interested in JRPG's would have gradually regressed in Japan but most JRPG fans has moved to handhelds. DQ IX still sold 2.3 million first week and over 4m LTD (still selling) which is more than any previous entries in the series. This is even more what FF7 sold during 90's.



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Kenryoku_Maxis on 16 December 2009
johnsobas said:
square enix wouldn't be the ones taking the hit. Retailers would be the ones taking a huge hit. They would probably lose faith in all video games at that point as nothing seems like more of a sure thing than final fantasy.

Often if companies release too much shipment of a product initially, to keep from their product being on stands too long and being sold at discount, they will buy them back from stores.  This is why SquareEnix has only released a million copies initially.  To keep retailers from having too many and lowering the price down to say 8,000 or even 6,500 yen instead of the current 9,240 yen (around $100 USD).

Sony had to do it early into the PS2s lifetime when they shipped some astronomical amount of consoles.  Remember the crates of PS2s sitting inside of stores untouched that magically dissapeared?



Six upcoming games you should look into:

 

  

dolemit3 on 16 December 2009

Yahoo Japan confirms 1.8 million first shipment. Great great numbers:
source



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

jacks81x on 16 December 2009
Untamoi said:
jacks81x said:
johnsobas said:
jacks81x said:
Hidalgo said:
Hm, I was assuming that FFXIII would make 1.8 million (more or less) on it's first week, just like the last 5 Final Fantasy games did.

I can't even understand it... (no, I can't admit the "make-it-rare" theory this time).

The last few FF games were released to a much larger install base.  If using similar attach rate, FFXIII selling anything close to 1 million would already be a huge success relatively speaking.

FF12 sold 1.8m in its first week to a PS2 install base of about 20m.  That's an attach rate of under 10%.  If FF13 can sell 1 million copies in its first week, that's an attach rate of 25%, which is amazing for any game, let alone a dying genre like JRPGs. 


actually FF7 and FF10 were released on small userbases too, FF7 was able to sell 2 million first week on a similar userbase to ps3 right now.  Yes PS1 ended up with a huge userbase, but FF7 had most of its sales in the first few weeks, still front loaded.  This is Final Fantasy we're talking about, userbase actually doesn't matter that much. 

Well, I'm not going to compare it to FF7 since that game was revolutionary in many ways.  No FF since has matched the success that FF7 had.  Also, since the late 90's the interest in JRPGs has gradually regressed.  So IMO FF13 is in no way going to get anywhere near the sales numbers that FF7 had.

 

Second, when FFX came out on July 19, 2001, the PS2 had an install base of 5.1 million.  So that's one more million units that what the PS3 will have when FF13 comes out tomorrow.

I wouldn't say interested in JRPG's would have gradually regressed in Japan but most JRPG fans has moved to handhelds. DQ IX still sold 2.3 million first week and over 4m LTD (still selling) which is more than any previous entries in the series. This is even more what FF7 sold during 90's.

I'm talking strictly about consoles.  Handhelds are a different animal IMO.  In this currently gen of consoles we've yet to see a JRPG sell 1 million units WW.  I think that says it all about the dwindling interest in console JRPGs.  



darthdevidem01 on 16 December 2009

I wish avinash tyagi wasn't banned!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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FinalEvangelion on 17 December 2009

To answer the original question...

I guess not...



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.