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Forums - Sales Discussion - FFXIII first shipment is only 1 million???

JayLam on 15 December 2009
johnsobas said:
JayLam said:

Sorry，there is no original link（i can't find it ），but a text like this：
本体同梱版の数は1〜2万台程度と推測していたのですが
クラウドブラックより少ないのはおかしい等のご指摘を受けましたので
本日もう一度確認を取ったところ20万程度出荷されるようです。

また、ソフト出荷本数も初回を合計と聞き間違えていたようで
正しくは初回に130万本、発売日着に15万本、週末に15万本で160万本
更に本体同梱版を加えると合計で180万本出荷という事になります。
Maybe it was quoted from 2CH BBS.
here is the webmaster’s quotation on the 380th floor.
http://bbs.a9vg.com/read.php?tid=1359931&fpage=&toread=&uid=&page=13


excuse me for being skeptical but you just linked to a chinese forum. 


Yes，it isn't the original link，but only the quotation，as so far it seems like rumor.



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johnsobas on 15 December 2009

so it's a quotation from a link that someone can't find on a chinese message board. I don't see any reason to believe it.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

FinalEvangelion on 16 December 2009
Soriku said:

I don't understand why that post is still being discussed? They already confirmed the shipment is 1 mil, then 150k launch day, then 150k weekend. Then they also said that for each 100 copies there'll be 4 bundles (so even if the shipment ended up at 1.8 mil, there'd still be less than 200k bundles.)

 

That was what the email said for retailers.  I did remember as someone told me earlier, that SE is also selling some directly to consumers.  They all went within minutes. 



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.

 

JayLam on 16 December 2009
johnsobas said:
so it's a quotation from a link that someone can't find on a chinese message board. I don't see any reason to believe it.

No，it's a quotation from a Japanese forum 2ch.Well，we have to stop talk about these rumors，wait and see the first week sales.



jacks81x on 16 December 2009
Hidalgo said:
Hm, I was assuming that FFXIII would make 1.8 million (more or less) on it's first week, just like the last 5 Final Fantasy games did.

I can't even understand it... (no, I can't admit the "make-it-rare" theory this time).

The last few FF games were released to a much larger install base.  If using similar attach rate, FFXIII selling anything close to 1 million would already be a huge success relatively speaking.

FF12 sold 1.8m in its first week to a PS2 install base of about 20m.  That's an attach rate of under 10%.  If FF13 can sell 1 million copies in its first week, that's an attach rate of 25%, which is amazing for any game, let alone a dying genre like JRPGs. 



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johnsobas on 16 December 2009
jacks81x said:
Hidalgo said:
Hm, I was assuming that FFXIII would make 1.8 million (more or less) on it's first week, just like the last 5 Final Fantasy games did.

I can't even understand it... (no, I can't admit the "make-it-rare" theory this time).

The last few FF games were released to a much larger install base.  If using similar attach rate, FFXIII selling anything close to 1 million would already be a huge success relatively speaking.

FF12 sold 1.8m in its first week to a PS2 install base of about 20m.  That's an attach rate of under 10%.  If FF13 can sell 1 million copies in its first week, that's an attach rate of 25%, which is amazing for any game, let alone a dying genre like JRPGs. 


actually FF7 and FF10 were released on small userbases too, FF7 was able to sell 2 million first week on a similar userbase to ps3 right now.  Yes PS1 ended up with a huge userbase, but FF7 had most of its sales in the first few weeks, still front loaded.  This is Final Fantasy we're talking about, userbase actually doesn't matter that much. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

JayLam on 16 December 2009
jacks81x said:
Hidalgo said:
Hm, I was assuming that FFXIII would make 1.8 million (more or less) on it's first week, just like the last 5 Final Fantasy games did.

I can't even understand it... (no, I can't admit the "make-it-rare" theory this time).

The last few FF games were released to a much larger install base.  If using similar attach rate, FFXIII selling anything close to 1 million would already be a huge success relatively speaking.

FF12 sold 1.8m in its first week to a PS2 install base of about 20m.  That's an attach rate of under 10%.  If FF13 can sell 1 million copies in its first week, that's an attach rate of 25%, which is amazing for any game, let alone a dying genre like JRPGs. 


Yes，according to PS3’s userbase in JP，so the rumor about 200K bundle seems plausible.



Kenryoku_Maxis on 16 December 2009

Famitsu's initial sales for the game in Japan, LIFETIME, were only around 1.5 Million. Even with as much hype and boasting that SquareEnix was putting into the game, they aren't going to just ship out 2 million copies of the game only to see 1 million of them sell. That would lead to the game being called a disaster (not to mention SquareEnix taking a major financial hit).



Six upcoming games you should look into:

 

  

johnsobas on 16 December 2009

square enix wouldn't be the ones taking the hit. Retailers would be the ones taking a huge hit. They would probably lose faith in all video games at that point as nothing seems like more of a sure thing than final fantasy.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

jacks81x on 16 December 2009
johnsobas said:
jacks81x said:
Hidalgo said:
Hm, I was assuming that FFXIII would make 1.8 million (more or less) on it's first week, just like the last 5 Final Fantasy games did.

I can't even understand it... (no, I can't admit the "make-it-rare" theory this time).

The last few FF games were released to a much larger install base.  If using similar attach rate, FFXIII selling anything close to 1 million would already be a huge success relatively speaking.

FF12 sold 1.8m in its first week to a PS2 install base of about 20m.  That's an attach rate of under 10%.  If FF13 can sell 1 million copies in its first week, that's an attach rate of 25%, which is amazing for any game, let alone a dying genre like JRPGs. 


actually FF7 and FF10 were released on small userbases too, FF7 was able to sell 2 million first week on a similar userbase to ps3 right now.  Yes PS1 ended up with a huge userbase, but FF7 had most of its sales in the first few weeks, still front loaded.  This is Final Fantasy we're talking about, userbase actually doesn't matter that much. 

Well, I'm not going to compare it to FF7 since that game was revolutionary in many ways.  No FF since has matched the success that FF7 had.  Also, since the late 90's the interest in JRPGs has gradually regressed.  So IMO FF13 is in no way going to get anywhere near the sales numbers that FF7 had.

 

Second, when FFX came out on July 19, 2001, the PS2 had an install base of 5.1 million.  So that's one more million units that what the PS3 will have when FF13 comes out tomorrow.