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Forums - Sales Discussion - FFXIII first shipment is only 1 million???

darthdevidem01 on 13 December 2009
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Arius Dion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Didn't source predict around 135K PS3's the week of FF13 release, if he's right, then I could see Wii beating PS3 that week


Yeah. And ioi predicted I think 175k. It is not outside the realm of possibility at all for Wii to outsell PS3 that week.

Lets not get too over the top here now.

If NSMB Wii reverses wii's YOY down trend this has a 20% of a chance of happening, if it doesn't probably 1%

I'm glad I'm on holiday from the 18th, I'll be able to post thanks to my laptop & internet connection in the hotel, but I'm glad I won't have the time to post much as there WILL be FF13 is doomed & FF13 has disappointed threads

yeah more than likely NSMB wii has reversed the trend, actually wii sold badly in dec. 2008 in Japan.  It sold much more in 2007, which is not the pattern in the west.  The wii lost steam at the end of the year last year, this year it is gaining steam at the end.  It is really a different situation.  It is quite conceivable wii could outsell ps3 even on FF13 week.  Wii and PS3 should both be in the 120-175k range.  There won't be a large difference.

Lets see, I haven't seen sufficient evidence to accept that NSMB Wii has reversed the trend

Before NSMB Wii the wii wasn't really gaining steam either.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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johnsobas on 13 December 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Arius Dion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Didn't source predict around 135K PS3's the week of FF13 release, if he's right, then I could see Wii beating PS3 that week


Yeah. And ioi predicted I think 175k. It is not outside the realm of possibility at all for Wii to outsell PS3 that week.

Lets not get too over the top here now.

If NSMB Wii reverses wii's YOY down trend this has a 20% of a chance of happening, if it doesn't probably 1%

I'm glad I'm on holiday from the 18th, I'll be able to post thanks to my laptop & internet connection in the hotel, but I'm glad I won't have the time to post much as there WILL be FF13 is doomed & FF13 has disappointed threads

yeah more than likely NSMB wii has reversed the trend, actually wii sold badly in dec. 2008 in Japan.  It sold much more in 2007, which is not the pattern in the west.  The wii lost steam at the end of the year last year, this year it is gaining steam at the end.  It is really a different situation.  It is quite conceivable wii could outsell ps3 even on FF13 week.  Wii and PS3 should both be in the 120-175k range.  There won't be a large difference.

Lets see, I haven't seen sufficient evidence to accept that NSMB Wii has reversed the trend

Before NSMB Wii the wii wasn't really gaining steam either.

i haven't seen any evidence that PS3 will sell 175k, so what?



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

darthdevidem01 on 13 December 2009
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Arius Dion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Didn't source predict around 135K PS3's the week of FF13 release, if he's right, then I could see Wii beating PS3 that week


Yeah. And ioi predicted I think 175k. It is not outside the realm of possibility at all for Wii to outsell PS3 that week.

Lets not get too over the top here now.

If NSMB Wii reverses wii's YOY down trend this has a 20% of a chance of happening, if it doesn't probably 1%

I'm glad I'm on holiday from the 18th, I'll be able to post thanks to my laptop & internet connection in the hotel, but I'm glad I won't have the time to post much as there WILL be FF13 is doomed & FF13 has disappointed threads

yeah more than likely NSMB wii has reversed the trend, actually wii sold badly in dec. 2008 in Japan.  It sold much more in 2007, which is not the pattern in the west.  The wii lost steam at the end of the year last year, this year it is gaining steam at the end.  It is really a different situation.  It is quite conceivable wii could outsell ps3 even on FF13 week.  Wii and PS3 should both be in the 120-175k range.  There won't be a large difference.

Lets see, I haven't seen sufficient evidence to accept that NSMB Wii has reversed the trend

Before NSMB Wii the wii wasn't really gaining steam either.

i haven't seen any evidence that PS3 will sell 175k, so what?

Except proof that PS3 spikes a lot during big game releases

With the wii we have had 1 week spike up due to a big release, nothing indicates a turn in fortunes YOY sales wise in Japan

in the case of 175K, no-one knows

Ps3 did 77K on MGS4 launch week, FF13 should roughly be 2.5 times as big as MGS4 so 77 x 2.5 = 192K

 

All I'm saying is that if NMSB Wii didn't result in wii going up YOY in Europe or America, why will it in Japan?



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

johnsobas on 13 December 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Arius Dion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Didn't source predict around 135K PS3's the week of FF13 release, if he's right, then I could see Wii beating PS3 that week


Yeah. And ioi predicted I think 175k. It is not outside the realm of possibility at all for Wii to outsell PS3 that week.

Lets not get too over the top here now.

If NSMB Wii reverses wii's YOY down trend this has a 20% of a chance of happening, if it doesn't probably 1%

I'm glad I'm on holiday from the 18th, I'll be able to post thanks to my laptop & internet connection in the hotel, but I'm glad I won't have the time to post much as there WILL be FF13 is doomed & FF13 has disappointed threads

yeah more than likely NSMB wii has reversed the trend, actually wii sold badly in dec. 2008 in Japan.  It sold much more in 2007, which is not the pattern in the west.  The wii lost steam at the end of the year last year, this year it is gaining steam at the end.  It is really a different situation.  It is quite conceivable wii could outsell ps3 even on FF13 week.  Wii and PS3 should both be in the 120-175k range.  There won't be a large difference.

Lets see, I haven't seen sufficient evidence to accept that NSMB Wii has reversed the trend

Before NSMB Wii the wii wasn't really gaining steam either.

i haven't seen any evidence that PS3 will sell 175k, so what?

Except proof that PS3 spikes a lot during big game releases

With the wii we have had 1 week spike up due to a big release, nothing indicates a turn in fortunes YOY sales wise in Japan

in the case of 175K, no-one knows

Ps3 did 77K on MGS4 launch week, FF13 should roughly be 2.5 times as big as MGS4 so 77 x 2.5 = 192K

 

All I'm saying is that if NMSB Wii didn't result in wii going up YOY in Europe or America, why will it in Japan?

because it already did. 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

darthdevidem01 on 13 December 2009
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Arius Dion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Didn't source predict around 135K PS3's the week of FF13 release, if he's right, then I could see Wii beating PS3 that week


Yeah. And ioi predicted I think 175k. It is not outside the realm of possibility at all for Wii to outsell PS3 that week.

Lets not get too over the top here now.

If NSMB Wii reverses wii's YOY down trend this has a 20% of a chance of happening, if it doesn't probably 1%

I'm glad I'm on holiday from the 18th, I'll be able to post thanks to my laptop & internet connection in the hotel, but I'm glad I won't have the time to post much as there WILL be FF13 is doomed & FF13 has disappointed threads

yeah more than likely NSMB wii has reversed the trend, actually wii sold badly in dec. 2008 in Japan.  It sold much more in 2007, which is not the pattern in the west.  The wii lost steam at the end of the year last year, this year it is gaining steam at the end.  It is really a different situation.  It is quite conceivable wii could outsell ps3 even on FF13 week.  Wii and PS3 should both be in the 120-175k range.  There won't be a large difference.

Lets see, I haven't seen sufficient evidence to accept that NSMB Wii has reversed the trend

Before NSMB Wii the wii wasn't really gaining steam either.

i haven't seen any evidence that PS3 will sell 175k, so what?

Except proof that PS3 spikes a lot during big game releases

With the wii we have had 1 week spike up due to a big release, nothing indicates a turn in fortunes YOY sales wise in Japan

in the case of 175K, no-one knows

Ps3 did 77K on MGS4 launch week, FF13 should roughly be 2.5 times as big as MGS4 so 77 x 2.5 = 192K

 

All I'm saying is that if NMSB Wii didn't result in wii going up YOY in Europe or America, why will it in Japan?

because it already did. 

In Japan on launch week its up, but thats expected as Big games lead to the biggest spikes in Japan (duh)

I am talking about sustained sales

NSMB Wii hasn't reversed the trend yet, zero evidence point to that, way more evidence points to PS3 doing 175K



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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johnsobas on 13 December 2009

because it is a game that has already shown legs, and the the DS game had massive legs, because 2d mario games always have legs. Because it's the holiday season and this is the game to buy. FF13 will sell something like 60-80% first week, NSMB sell well throughout december.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Arius Dion on 13 December 2009
Soriku said:
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
johnsobas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Arius Dion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Didn't source predict around 135K PS3's the week of FF13 release, if he's right, then I could see Wii beating PS3 that week


Yeah. And ioi predicted I think 175k. It is not outside the realm of possibility at all for Wii to outsell PS3 that week.

Lets not get too over the top here now.

If NSMB Wii reverses wii's YOY down trend this has a 20% of a chance of happening, if it doesn't probably 1%

I'm glad I'm on holiday from the 18th, I'll be able to post thanks to my laptop & internet connection in the hotel, but I'm glad I won't have the time to post much as there WILL be FF13 is doomed & FF13 has disappointed threads

yeah more than likely NSMB wii has reversed the trend, actually wii sold badly in dec. 2008 in Japan.  It sold much more in 2007, which is not the pattern in the west.  The wii lost steam at the end of the year last year, this year it is gaining steam at the end.  It is really a different situation.  It is quite conceivable wii could outsell ps3 even on FF13 week.  Wii and PS3 should both be in the 120-175k range.  There won't be a large difference.

Lets see, I haven't seen sufficient evidence to accept that NSMB Wii has reversed the trend

Before NSMB Wii the wii wasn't really gaining steam either.

i haven't seen any evidence that PS3 will sell 175k, so what?

Except proof that PS3 spikes a lot during big game releases

With the wii we have had 1 week spike up due to a big release, nothing indicates a turn in fortunes YOY sales wise in Japan

in the case of 175K, no-one knows

Ps3 did 77K on MGS4 launch week, FF13 should roughly be 2.5 times as big as MGS4 so 77 x 2.5 = 192K

 

All I'm saying is that if NMSB Wii didn't result in wii going up YOY in Europe or America, why will it in Japan?


Last year the Wii sold 141k in the same week FF XIII will release. Last year Wii sold 55k the week NSMB released this year. Considering the Wii has a stronger lineup this year and the fact that Nintendo consoles boost during the holidays, the Wii being higher than the PS3 really wouldn't be that surprising IMO. Even if we take the average of what ioi and Source predict (175k ioi, 135k Source) it ends up at 155k which the Wii can definitely reach. Anyway, we'll see. We'll see if the Wii is up from the same week last year since ToG and such launched.

Exactly. That's all I'm saying as well. Don't know where that counts as "silliness" Demotruk



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

makingmusic476 on 14 December 2009
hanafuda said:
'I'm strictly speaking of the fact you have no proof of your point, and anyone can google up some links of Ninendo saying they were increasing production to meet "unexpected" demand (on both Wii and MK).  And the fact you made the pot shot "pulling-a-Nintendo" cause you know there's forum rules about trolling and substance and making absurd claims you can't possibly back up with any factual evidence goes under that rule.  You should just stick to the topic at hand which is NeoGAF claiming FFXIII will only ship a million and not bring in other unrelated topics into the discussion.'.

You have no proof of your point either, so why doesn't this apply to you too? It is just a piece of plastic.. Also, why egg him on in this OT discussion safe in the knowledge you will just ban him for responding?

I would 'report' you but figure the report would just be picked up by you anyway...

Maxwell didn't ban him.

You should really check people's profiles to see exactly why they were banned before making accusations like this.  ^_^



makingmusic476 on 14 December 2009

OT: So the first shipment is a million, followed up by two more shipments the first week, totaling 1.3 million? Not including bundles?

Sounds about right. First week we're looking at a bit over a million (probably over 1.15 million) unbundled copies, with a second week probably a fourth of that or so. Throw in bundles (50k?), and you're looking at 1.2-1.3 million first week.

This Final Fantasy will probably have slightly better legs than past Final Fantasies, given the current state of the ps3 in Japan. I get the feeling it'll continue to drag in new buyers for at least a few months, since the ps3 is selling slower than the ps2 once used to. Of course, Final Fantasy X released on a similar userbase in Japan when the ps2 was at a similar price point, so I could be totally wrong on that.

It could be that Final Fantasy is losing popularity, or the ps3 is holding it back. 1.3 million seems somewhat low, and I once figured it'd sell 1.3-1.6 million first week, not 1.3 million at best.



saicho on 14 December 2009

The Famitsu estimate doesn't look too off now if this is true



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.