WTF @ Mario?

Lets not forget the demographics here. First day = Thursday.

AC will sell poorly over the weekend. Galaxy will sell through the roof, as all the kids rush out to buy it.

I'm predicting AC total 55k for the week, and Galaxy around 470k.

Pity about Opoona - what sort of scores did it get?

(I was also reading elsewhere, that its been a great day for the 360 - on the back of the MGS4 delay, big posters for Lost Odyssey & Ninja Gaiden II are going up - could this be the start of something?)

Opoona must be the most non-conventional game ever. Weird graphics, nunchuck only. Without a lot of advertising this was totally expected. Launching the same day as Galaxy might not have helped either.

Zack&Wiki didn't bomb, as Capcom was moderately happy with sales. The problem is we tend to focus a lot on Japan while only about 1/10 of the worldwide weekly console sales are from Japan (Wii 1/10th, 360 1/50, PS3 1/7). If we had good European data we could make way better assessments on whether a game bombed or not. Z&W will sell most in Europe (adventure loving country).
Opoona won't sell anywhere, not even on PS2.

That is very true Shams, good point.

Lets not forget about legs, and that we are coming into a holiday season.

Zak & Wiki will do just fine - I'll be surprised if it hasn't clocked up 250k sales WW by the start of '08.

Opoona I feel sorry for :( I gather its a reasonable game (no idea) - pity it wasn't a launch title, or have some time to itself. Hopefully it will sell 100k (min) WW, and ship double that number. I'd love to give it a rent.

...I think Oopona's idea was when people rushed to get SMG, they'd think "oh! it's another Wii game I can buy!"

Unfortunately, it didn't work.

AC6's numbers are good, but not great. I would of expected more since that day was the X360's price drop, VP/FM2 packins, and the platinum title games.

However, it might get a decent (x2) multiplier due to the fact that it seems that exclusive non-West games manage much better multipliers than that of Western games. AC6 should easily hit 100k, and might manage a 55-60k o/w. It could hit more, however.

Shams makes the critical point here. How many people are going to be able to go get the game on a Thursday? I live in Australia and movies always open on a Thursday here. Of course, they do rubbish on opening day - but they clean up on the weekend, which is what I would expect of Mario.

I just think it will do the majority of its week#1 sales over the weekend. Like it or not, kids are the majority market for the game. And many parents will force the kids to wait until the weekend for a game like this.

...

And to put things into perspective - its still on target to outsell the *best* selling PS3 game (in Japan, lifetime) - within its first week on the market.

I agree that the day#1 sales is surprisingly low - but I just can't see this game being ignored by the Japanese public. Its just too high profile, and too good. We all know how the last Mario game on the DS went.

As I mentioned in the other thread on this:
- Thursday: 130k
- End of weekend: 450k
- End of week: 600k

(or something like that)

Bah, Since this is day one sales, i'm pretty confident that SMG will have nice first week sales. It's obvious for us that a game like SMG should sell like there's no tommorrow....but things have changed in Japan, it's more than obvious now.

...If SMG had such big(small) sales in Japan i wonder how big it'll turn out in the US and Europe??

well, definitely more than on a sunday release date - at least in Germany. Everything is closed then. I think movies you are right, but dropping by a store to pic up a game (10 minutes) - is that so hard?