That's pretty stupid. Like any game out there, they can do moderately, be a success (even a small one), or whatever you can think of.

And if they flop (and I have no idea where the threshold for flop goes here, I consider it to be a flop if it doesn't live up to reasonable publisher/developer expectations), then we will simply see fewer games that are breathtaking in graphics but take 4 years to create. Those are already a rare breed though.

i think that allen wake has a better chance at wining in sales. i think it apeals to more people. it really depends on how good these games are for there sales. if these games are really good i can see allen wake selling 1.5 to 2.1(about mass effects sells). and heavy rain 750k to 1.5 million. if the games are mediocer 500k to 750 k heavy rain and 750k to 1m for allen wake.

my man.. you are severely misinformed.. shrooms are god's gift to mankind man..

Says the addict

i think heavy rain will be amazing but it doesn't seem very main stream to me. my gut says it won't make it past 1M.

alan wake is a much more mainstream sort of game but i still dont think it's going to due much differently then the other awesome new IPs this gen. 1-2M.

Hmm.

Well, nobody expects Heavy Rain to do gangbusters.

Alan Wake, i have no idea whats expected.

I predict this -
1.5m for Heavy Rain.
2m for Alan Wake.

As for the marketting and buzz, Heavy Rain is getting way more attention than Alan Wake at the moment.

I just wonder, what will Quantic Dream do to make Heavy Rain go more mainstream in these last months?
Guns?Boobs?Multiplayer?Co-op?

It was destroyed by that whole recall business.

Why would they make it more mainstream? They are taking more time to polish it, nothing else. Heavy Rain is not meant to try and be mainstream by some specific measure. It's supposed to be its own thing, doing what is right for it, and not tacking on content that does not belong, to try and pull in a larger audience.

Don't think neither will earn back all the development and advertising costs.