AlanWake will certainly beat Killzone 2 in US, and maybe WW.

Heavy Rain will in the max. reach half of Killzone 2 numbers Lifetime, if it`s HUGE. But without ads & etc...i think maybe 500k-700k(1M only with bundle).

Don't Matter what HR really is(humm....special). Unfortunately will be a FLOP.

here's the deal. ps3 games are more diverse. microsoft doesn't put out anything that is new or edgy in any way. they wait until someone else succeeds and then the put in their 2 cents and milk it for all it's worth. Heavy Rain=completely new. Alan Wake= Just another game. and don't tell me graphics don't sell.

What if Alan Wake and/or Heavy Rain flop?

Well, Lair and Too Human flopped and the world is still turning...

The publishers will put the IPs on the shelf and we will never see them again...

My guess would be 1.2 million for Heavy Rain and about 1.8 million for Alan Wake... so I don't expect them to be huge sales hits, but both will be great games and have avid fan followings.

no? alan carries a gun and a flashlight.  unless, are you trying to split hairs about the flashlight not being a gun?  the basic gameplay mechanic is still the same, put object behind aiming rectile then object dies.  or is this suppose to be a survival horror genre?  i mean i guess RE4/5 is a survial horror but i'm still calling it a shooter.

This is the gameplay i've seen and therefore basing my opionion on btw.

http://www.gametrailers.com/video/exclusive-opening-alan-wake/58975

Alan Wake might do slightly better but I think both games have huge flop potential. Both can have huge sales potential but they need to be marketed to the type of person who goes to see a psychological thriller. That requires big marketing and ads on primetime TV but I don't think either game is going to get that type of push.

If it's only advertsied to your typical gamer, I'd say 1 million copies after 12 months. With those two being console exclusives, I think you can count on a good 100-200k people buying it solely because of that.

How does a character using a gun make the game a shooter? That's completely weird logic.

Carnival Games is no longer a party game but a shooter! You can shoot balloons at one point in the game! Carnival Games = hardcore confirmed!

I may be a bit ignorant here, but what exactly qualifies Alan Wake as "something new to gaming"?

Looks like a survival horror to me.

depends on what you mean by "flop"

financially both may flop....thats more likely than their sales seeming like they are a flop!