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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Reggie predicts NSMBW will outsell the 360 version of ModernWarFare2 !

MasterZack on 12 November 2009

if NSMBWii sell like tittles like Wii Sports Resort or Wii Fit, maybe in lifetime wins over MW2.

Nowadays anybody buys MW1.



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TheThunder on 12 November 2009
LordTheNightKnight said:
TheThunder said:
Oh Reggie ... better luck next time ;)

Try actually listening to what he said next time. It's not February, so you can't declare this over yet.

I actually read it and know what I'm talking about buddy.

NSMB has 11 weeks right ?

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+Brawl+-+Wii&reg2=America&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=America&game3=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&weeks=11

The fastest selling Wii game in a matter of 11 weeks in the Americas is SSMB with 3.3 mil. Outselling MW2 360 in NA is highly unlikely at this point and I do believe that he already lost we are just waiting on Feb to make it official.

 

*Edit* it was actually 3.3 mil not 3.5



Smashchu2 on 12 November 2009
Joelcool7 said:
Smashchu2 said:
Joelcool7 said:
Smashchu2 said:

I'll repeat what I posted from the news article

NSMB on the DS sold 19million in total
The most Call of Duty sold on one system was 5.45 on the 360. It was 2.37 on the PS3. Also, since the original MW sold due to new content, there is more then likely be diminishing sales. I see no reason why sales should go up.

So it probably only has to beat 2.37, which is can easily do.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Did some number crunching. Here's what I found

I took a rough estimate of the Wii and PS3 sales of the game in America for the first eight weeks (roughly the Christmas season). In that time span, New Super Mario Bros sold 889K while MW sold 901K. The gap is incredibly close. Also take into account that sales will be down for MW2 due to diminishing sales and it is possible for NSMBW sales to be up due to being a console Mario and multiplayer.

I say it is very likely Reggie will win the bet. If MW2 has a diminishing effect like I say, then NSMBW will win. I will be wrong if most of MW2 sales are concentrated in the first few weeks rather then spread out.


I would say it is very likely Reggie will win the bet. It's not 100%, but I'd say the odds are in his favor.

@Joelcool

It is very likely NSMBW will. MW2 shows no evidence of outpreforming the first. It is too close to the last one and a big selling point of the first one was that it was new content not seen before (atleast in a good game). MW2 does not have the advantage. It will still do well, but I expect some diminishing results. I also suspect we'll see that a larger portion of those sales would be the preorders.

Did you read the news article at the homepage of VGChartz. MW2 is the biggest entertainment release ever. Ever meaning nobody has had that success in the past. Sure Mario has legs but I personally haven't seen this kind of passion for any game to date. Their was basically a riot at my local EBGames where I went to pick up my copy at midnight. Their were people without pre-orders being turned away, one guy stood in line since 9 and never got a copy.

I pre-ordered the Wii, DS and almost every big Nintendo title to date. I have been to their midnight launches (Hardware only thus far) and the lines for Nintendo products have never been as big as the ones for ModernWarFare2. Sure I'll happily say that maybe NSMBW will beat out the PS3 version of ModernWarFare but with day one sales over 3.5-million on the 360 I can't see Mario beating it by January. Note Reggie says the January NDP numbers, regardless of the franchises legs it cannot beat MW2 by January.

Now some will try to argue that Mario may beat MW2 in lifetime sales. It is possible but that isn't the bet Reggie made, he said NewSuperMarioBros would beat out MW2 (360) by the end of january. In order to do that Nintendo needs to sell at least 4Million copies in 3 months. But thats not even counting all the holiday sales for MW2 or the people who couldn't get their copies day one!

MW2 doesn't need legs and the argument that Mario has better legs really has nothing to do with it. Also not trying to dash your hopes but the DS is also what more then double the user base of the Wii. So divide the sales of NSMB:DS by two and see how well it competes with the first ModernWarfare. Also don't forget that just because the first was close doesn't mean the second one will be. I mean just look at the day one sales 3.5 million is way better then the first one did!

Grand Theft Auto 4 was the biggest release in entertainment history, but Mario Kart still beat it. Actually, Mario Kart Wii beat out Grand Theft Auto 4 on the PS3 in it's first 10 weeks. Mario Katy had 2.48 at week 10 while GTA had 1.92 million. This is just GTA and Mario Kart all over again, and NSMBW has a very good chance of winning. Expect a large week 1 sales with low sales though out its life.

ModernWarFare just sold 7-mill during its launch alone, 3.5 million at least on the 360. It is the fastest and highest grossing game of all time. That is just day one sales now sure many are argueing that the game will cool down after a couple weeks on the market. But can SuperMarioBrosWii really outsell lets say 7-million copies in one holiday season? MarioGalaxy has only 8 million in its life time sales how is NewSuperMarioBros going to beat that in two and a half months?

First, the bet is that NSMBW will outsell MW2 in America on one system by the end of 09. It just has to beat out the PS3's sales.

Also, note how this is playing out exactly like Mario Kart Wii vs GTA 4? This time, MW2 will come out of the game stronger, but Mario will surprise people more. Basically, it's right on track for what I said.



LordTheNightKnight on 12 November 2009
TheThunder said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
TheThunder said:
Oh Reggie ... better luck next time ;)

Try actually listening to what he said next time. It's not February, so you can't declare this over yet.

I actually read it and know what I'm talking about buddy.

NSMB has 11 weeks right ?

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+Brawl+-+Wii&reg2=America&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=America&game3=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&weeks=11

The fastest selling Wii game in a matter of 11 weeks in the Americas is SSMB with 3.5 mil. Outselling MW2 360 in NA is highly unlikely at this point and I do believe that he already lost we are just waiting on Feb to make it official.

He said basically "You gotta give me January NDP". It's not Janurary NPD until it is, buddy. And that only proves that game didn't sell that fast. It doesn't magically mean all Wii games are locked into that.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Figlioni on 12 November 2009

In lifetime sales, NSMBW will outsell MW2.

No doubt.



"Success really is decided at birth, and your life will never be better than it is right now. Sorry about that."

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Zucas on 12 November 2009

Well this prediction isn't looking so hot for Reggie haha. I mean we are looking to about a 4-5 million first week opener for the 360 version. Not to mention I would imagine it would be able to sell a good 2-3 million after that considering it will be the big holiday title for 360.

Given NSMB Wii will be a big game, we can at least expect a 2-2.5 million first week opener. Then given it will be the big Wii title for the holidays at least another 2-3 million. Even with that it's nowhere near the 360 version.

Either I'm completely under estimating the selling power of NSMB or Reggie knows something we don't. Whatever way, I think MW2 on 360 will take the day haha. Over lifetime, I'll probably have to give it to NSMB Wii but I've been surprised before.

 

And if we go purely on NA, I don't think it'll change too much up considering both games biggest selling territory will be America.



Killergran on 12 November 2009

Modern Warfare 2 had a bigger opening than I expected. At first, it seemed like an even deal (I was mostly thinking about worldwide figures, because NPD figures are really a rather limited scope). After seeing the preliminary first day sales reports, I really doubt that Mario can make it. Even if Mario manages to sell 8.5 million by the end of January, Call of Duty will probably sell more, just on the xbox.

In the long run however, I'd put my money on Mario.



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Wii_Master on 12 November 2009

@zucas this is for WW January END NPD Data



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TheThunder on 12 November 2009
LordTheNightKnight said:
TheThunder said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
TheThunder said:
Oh Reggie ... better luck next time ;)

Try actually listening to what he said next time. It's not February, so you can't declare this over yet.

I actually read it and know what I'm talking about buddy.

NSMB has 11 weeks right ?

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+Brawl+-+Wii&reg2=America&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=America&game3=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&weeks=11

The fastest selling Wii game in a matter of 11 weeks in the Americas is SSMB with 3.5 mil. Outselling MW2 360 in NA is highly unlikely at this point and I do believe that he already lost we are just waiting on Feb to make it official.

He said basically "You gotta give me January NDP". It's not Janurary NPD until it is, buddy. And that only proves that game didn't sell that fast. It doesn't magically mean all Wii games are locked into that.

Why do you think I said 11 weeks ? because NSMB exactly has that amount of time until the end of Jan, and I know that NSMB will probably sell faster than Smash Bros but I putted there as a reference.

Here another one for ya (Halo 3, SSBB and GTA IV 360)

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+Brawl+-+Wii&reg2=America&game2=Halo+3+-+X360&reg3=America&game3=Call+of+Duty%3A+World+at+War+-+X360&weeks=11



LordTheNightKnight on 12 November 2009

I'm not saying there isn't past. History. I'm saying you can't say it's over already. You didn't write "This doesn't look likely at all." You wrote "Better luck next time." as though the bet was already lost.

IT'S NOT JANUARY NPD YET.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs