"But can SuperMarioBrosWii really outsell lets say 7-million copies in one holiday season? MarioGalaxy has only 8 million in its life time sales how is NewSuperMarioBros going to beat that in two and a half months?"

ONLY the 360 version, and 2D Mario games have sold better than the 3D games.

I think reggie is a nintendo fanboy

Yeah, does he even work there or just wandered into the building spouting about how awesome they are, and they just rented him a room?

BTW, the COD MW2 sales estimates are worldwide, while Reggie just discussed NPD, hence North America (or do they just cover the US). So the 360 version likely opened somewhere between 2 and 3 million.

I would say that if the opening week is like MK Wii vs GTA IV (more than the PS3 version, but less than the 360 one), it has a shot.

@ bolded. wow. all i have to say to that is lol.

on topic.. yea, using preorder numbers to determine overall sales... wow.

instead of explaining why thats a stupid assumption, im just going to take you back to april 0f 2008.

it was a quaint time.

full of talk of what is the greatest game this generation... GTAIV

everybody was shitting their pants, i worked the midnight release, that was huge!!

two days later.

mario kart Wii midnight release

*crickets chirping*

yea, i went to the midnight release.. i was one of like three or four people there.

but what happened?

oh, not much, just got 15 mil in less than a year.

conclusion:

preorders dont mean shit.

there i taught you to think.

Alright AngryPoolMan. Since Reggie stated specifically that by the end of January NSMBW will outsell the 360 version of MW2 it totally destroys your comparison. Did MarioKartWii slaughter GTA in 2 months? No it took months and months if not years for MarioKart to beat out GTA. Reggie never said lifetime sales, he said the January NPD sales. I know for a fact that 3.5 million copies on the 360 sold here in NA launch day. Based on Pre-orders for NA.

Pre-orders tell us how well a game will sell during the first few weeks on the market. Not how well it will do way down the road. But we arn't looking way down the road. Were looking at by the end of January. Can NSMBW outsell MW2 (360) by the end of January? I'd be more then willing to bet you it can't if you have a wager in mind?

Forget bringing up Mario Galaxy, nobody believes it will sell that poorly.

This is what we're looking at:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=America&game3=Call+of+Duty+4:+Modern+Warfare+-+X360&weeks=11

I imagine Modern Warfare 2 will sell more or less like this, except with a much bigger launch week. I'll just throw 2.5mil onto MW1's total and say it'll end at 5.5mil.

Let's look at another game, Mario Kart Wii (which I am assuming to have a similar sales pattern):

First 11 weeks: 2.5mil
11 holiday weeks (starting week ending Nov22): 2,507,944
133,068 + 263,749 + 1,326,343 (Dec) + 311,372 (Jan) = 2,034,532

MKWii's America total, by which I mean taking the sum of its launch period and its holiday period, still only sums up to ~4.5m. That's probably the absolute best case scenario for NSMB Wii, so the bet isn't happening. To make things slightly worse, Modern Warfare 2 has 5 extra days on NSMB Wii's sales, due to releasing earlier.

I'll predict 4mil for January NPD. It's probably on the high end, but I have faith in 2D Mario. Worldwide, I expect NSMB Wii to overtake PS3 MW2 sales by the end of 09, 360 MW2 sales by April 2010, 360 MW2 US sales (Reggie's bet) by Oct 2010, HD total sales Q3 2011, and total (PC included) by the end of 2011.

If this ends up totally off, it's because I'm hyped for the game (and am now expecting MKWii-like sales), so please put the blame on any of those fools rocking the damn Koopa Kids' avatars.

nah, it took about two months.. and stuff

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39614&console=&maker=&boxartz=1#

Reggie saying their game will sell well....PR BS need I say more?!?!?!?!

As for the sales....most likely NSMB Wii will out sell COD:MW2, nostalgia is a very powerful selling tool and Nintendo know how to milk it, of course their will be allot who will buy it because they love Nintendo style platformer as well....but at the end of the day the game with the better overall quality will be COD:MW2.

COD:MW2 single player has that action packed, atmospheric experience that IW is well known for, and although short in length they make it up with a fully featured online feature, all with decent looking graphics running @ 60FPS...very nice package indeed and weather your just a campaign player or only a multiplayer player you'll be satisfied if you like FPS in general.

While NSMB Wii has that classic style platforming that not only has that nolstalgic effect but is fun enough to bring in new gamers, the graphics are clinical meaning they won't wow you but do the game service for the source material. Now where Nintendo have dropped the ball big time is the lack of any online co-op, yes it does have 4 player local co-op by why no online?
Little Big Planet, which is very similar style to NSMB Wii, has 4 player local co-op, as well as 4 player online co-op, and it also has a variation of online and local co-op all at once, so it's clear that it can be done and something that Nintendo completely failed to even try.

Now many will cite that they don't care about online and that their happy with just the local stuff, but there are those who would also like the ability to play with their friends with out the need to be in the same room...I mean their will be situations where online co-op with friends will the preferred method as having friends over each and every time you wanna play together will be impossible, in this day in age online is a must, but this is another clear example of Nintendo's failure at online, or the lack of even trying to do online.

Overall these are my opinions to back up my reasoning of why COD:MW2 overall quality is a much better package than NSMB Wii.

my 2 cents, take that as you will.

lifetime sales of New Super Mario Bros Wii will be higher than lifetime sales of Modern Warfare 2 on ps360 and pc combined.