Joelcool7 said:
Smashchu2 said:
Joelcool7 said:
Smashchu2 said:
I'll repeat what I posted from the news article
NSMB on the DS sold 19million in total
The most Call of Duty sold on one system was 5.45 on the 360. It was 2.37 on the PS3. Also, since the original MW sold due to new content, there is more then likely be diminishing sales. I see no reason why sales should go up.
So it probably only has to beat 2.37, which is can easily do.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Did some number crunching. Here's what I found
I took a rough estimate of the Wii and PS3 sales of the game in America for the first eight weeks (roughly the Christmas season). In that time span, New Super Mario Bros sold 889K while MW sold 901K. The gap is incredibly close. Also take into account that sales will be down for MW2 due to diminishing sales and it is possible for NSMBW sales to be up due to being a console Mario and multiplayer.
I say it is very likely Reggie will win the bet. If MW2 has a diminishing effect like I say, then NSMBW will win. I will be wrong if most of MW2 sales are concentrated in the first few weeks rather then spread out.
I would say it is very likely Reggie will win the bet. It's not 100%, but I'd say the odds are in his favor.
@Joelcool
It is very likely NSMBW will. MW2 shows no evidence of outpreforming the first. It is too close to the last one and a big selling point of the first one was that it was new content not seen before (atleast in a good game). MW2 does not have the advantage. It will still do well, but I expect some diminishing results. I also suspect we'll see that a larger portion of those sales would be the preorders.
|
Did you read the news article at the homepage of VGChartz. MW2 is the biggest entertainment release ever. Ever meaning nobody has had that success in the past. Sure Mario has legs but I personally haven't seen this kind of passion for any game to date. Their was basically a riot at my local EBGames where I went to pick up my copy at midnight. Their were people without pre-orders being turned away, one guy stood in line since 9 and never got a copy.
I pre-ordered the Wii, DS and almost every big Nintendo title to date. I have been to their midnight launches (Hardware only thus far) and the lines for Nintendo products have never been as big as the ones for ModernWarFare2. Sure I'll happily say that maybe NSMBW will beat out the PS3 version of ModernWarFare but with day one sales over 3.5-million on the 360 I can't see Mario beating it by January. Note Reggie says the January NDP numbers, regardless of the franchises legs it cannot beat MW2 by January.
Now some will try to argue that Mario may beat MW2 in lifetime sales. It is possible but that isn't the bet Reggie made, he said NewSuperMarioBros would beat out MW2 (360) by the end of january. In order to do that Nintendo needs to sell at least 4Million copies in 3 months. But thats not even counting all the holiday sales for MW2 or the people who couldn't get their copies day one!
MW2 doesn't need legs and the argument that Mario has better legs really has nothing to do with it. Also not trying to dash your hopes but the DS is also what more then double the user base of the Wii. So divide the sales of NSMB:DS by two and see how well it competes with the first ModernWarfare. Also don't forget that just because the first was close doesn't mean the second one will be. I mean just look at the day one sales 3.5 million is way better then the first one did!
|
Grand Theft Auto 4 was the biggest release in entertainment history, but Mario Kart still beat it. Actually, Mario Kart Wii beat out Grand Theft Auto 4 on the PS3 in it's first 10 weeks. Mario Katy had 2.48 at week 10 while GTA had 1.92 million. This is just GTA and Mario Kart all over again, and NSMBW has a very good chance of winning. Expect a large week 1 sales with low sales though out its life.
|
ModernWarFare just sold 7-mill during its launch alone, 3.5 million at least on the 360. It is the fastest and highest grossing game of all time. That is just day one sales now sure many are argueing that the game will cool down after a couple weeks on the market. But can SuperMarioBrosWii really outsell lets say 7-million copies in one holiday season? MarioGalaxy has only 8 million in its life time sales how is NewSuperMarioBros going to beat that in two and a half months?
|
First, the bet is that NSMBW will outsell MW2 in America on one system by the end of 09. It just has to beat out the PS3's sales.
Also, note how this is playing out exactly like Mario Kart Wii vs GTA 4? This time, MW2 will come out of the game stronger, but Mario will surprise people more. Basically, it's right on track for what I said.
