it will happen 2/11/09..happy?

Nice one,  I was going to say the exact same thing. :D

Where's Kowenicki when you need him?

Maybe Q3 2011- Q4 2011

Probably 2011.

When PS3 gets close, MS will do 1 of 2 things:

1.) Drop the Arcade to $99 --> Massive sales.

2.) Release the nextbox, effectively ending the generation so they can claim that they beat Sony while this gen was still relevant.

I think the PS3 will definitely end it's life with more sales than the 360, but whether the 360 will still be the latest microsoft console at that time is hard to say. I think all will depend on natal to be honest, and if it can deliver or if it's just a gimick.

This is how i see it ... M$ will release a new console quickly if they see ps3 is catching up so that they remain in 2nd spot ... they will do anything to make sony 3rd this generation ...

@ kowenicki: I think Sony might care if they outsell the 360, even if it's not during this generation :p

@ tedsteriscool - mark my words, no current gen console will ever retail for $99. $129-149 at best.