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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi vs ZorroX :: Japan prediction Contest for Wii & PS3 Holiday Sales. :P

ViolentPhlegm on 19 November 2009

Here is the update from the Wii to 10M / PS3 to 5M thread:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

Notes:

1) Last weeks numbers for both Wii and PS3 have been adjusted upwards somewhat.

WEEK ENDING NOV 15 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,750,110 3,888,564 Wii: 4,861,546
Left to target 1,249,890 1,111,436 PS3: 138,454
This week (yoy) 26,606 (-8.0%) 35,350 (+73.1%) PS3: 8,744
Since race start (yoy) 213,098 (+4.4%) 291,516 (+161.4%) PS3: 78,418


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ViolentPhlegm on 26 November 2009

Here is the latest update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

Notes:

1)  There were some very small adjustments to last week's numbers (PS3 up, Wii down).

2)  Wii shows as being flat yoy in the "Since race start" category.  The actual total is up 101 units, which rounds to 0.0%.

WEEK ENDING NOV 22 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,779,108 3,921,135 Wii: 4,857,973
Left to target 1,220,892 1,078,865 PS3: 142,027
This week (yoy) 30,622 (-19.0%) 31,815 (+77.8%) PS3: 1,193
Since race start (yoy) 242,096 (0.0%) 324,087 (+150.4%) PS3: 81,991


binary solo on 27 November 2009

It'll all come down to the HW boosting effect of FF XIII vs NSMB Wii. As of this week there is about 140K difference in sales to go. NSMB could make that differential disappear in the 2 weeks between its release and FF XIII. Question is will FF XIII re-establish that gap for PS3?

An interesting contest.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Wonktonodi on 27 November 2009

interesting stuff look forward to seeing how it all plays out



Noobie on 27 November 2009
Noobie said:

Was just bored n had lot of time to kill so i decided to create a thread to check the prediction accuracy by ioi & ZorroX

These numbers r taken from http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1 thread.

 

 


 Wii PS3

ioi's Orig ioi's Upd ZorroX' Orig ZorroX's Upd Actual Last Year      ioi's  ZorroX's Actual Last Year
27-Sep-09 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 12,415 26,183  30,000 42,000 45,430 8,370
04-Oct-09 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 33,831 25,691       30,000 47,000 37,642 7,400
11-Oct-09 41,500 41,500 41,500 41,500 30,017 22,214       28,000 40,000 30,081 5,875
18-Oct-09 38,500 38,500 38,500 38,500 28,596 25,538       25,000 45,000 28,902 4,810
25-Oct-09 36,000 25,000 36,000 36,000 25,560 24,671       23,000 40,000 30,793 4,056
01-Nov-09 45,000 35,000 55,000 45,000 28,056 24,086       31,000 65,000 36,896 38,171
08-Nov-09 42,500 36,000 42,500 30,500 28,017 26,890       27,500 55,500 46,422 22,399
15-Nov-09 55,000 42,000 55,000 37,500 24,982 28,922       31,000 52,000 36,106 20,426
22-Nov-09 145,000 40,000 115,000 35,000 30,622 37,800       31,000 51,000 31,815 17,895
29-Nov-09 105,000 52,500 75,000 47,000   45,970       38,500 55,500   35,339
06-Dec-09 95,000 155,000 85,000 125,000   55,405       49,500 60,500   28,432
13-Dec-09 110,000 135,000 100,000 120,000   92,392       75,000 95,000   32,169
20-Dec-09 180,000 190,000 125,000 155,000   141,141     175,000 245,000   38,431
27-Dec-09 215,000 255,000 145,000 175,000   148,627     125,000 195,000   47,464
03-Jan-10 165,000 165,000 115,000 130,000   130,613     110,000 180,000   64,970
10-Jan-10 65,000 65,000 75,000 50,000   42,843       47,500 97,500   29,240
17-Jan-10 50,000 50,000 50,000 40,000   31,632       40,000 70,000   20,251
24-Jan-10 40,000 40,000 40,000 35,000   26,226       36,500 56,500   17,765
31-Jan-10 35,000 35,000 35,000 30,000   24,093       33,250 53,250   16,932
Total Till Now 466,500 321,000 466,500 327,000 242,096 241,995 256,500 437,000 324,087 129,433
Grand Total 1,526,500 1,463,500 1,291,500 1,234,000   980,937 986,750 1,458,750   460,417
                     
          Wii       PS3  
At Start         8,537,012       3,597,048  
To Achieve         10,000,000       5,000,000  
Total Diff         1,462,988       1,402,952  
Ach Till Now         242,096 0.04%     324,087 150.4%
Curr Total         8,779,108       3,921,135  
Remaing         1,220,892       1,078,865  

Although its too early to judge which prediction is better, but i think probably the Wii n PS3 will reach the milestones together or within 1, 2 weeks of each other... 

ps. I hope ioi n ZorroX dont mind my taking these numbers n starting a thread on these prediction.. Just wanted to keep an eye.. hopefully i will be updating them weekly.. 

pps. one more prediction can also be added in this contest. 

Disclaimer: The original prediction were initially made by ioi n ZorroX in following thread around the same time. The original numbers are under "Orig" postfix

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

But after the change in some release dates of Wii titles ioi updated his Wii estimates on 22/10 in the same above thread. Some people asked me to make it unbiased i should request ZorroX to update the estimates also in light of release date change. So i requested ZorroX and he mailed me updated numbers on 06/11. The estimate made before that are untouched. Both updated predictions are denoted by "Upd" post fix.

Btw initially ZorroX used ioi's initial Wii estimates for October n first half of November Wii sales.

PS3 numbers are not changed from the initial estimates.

If anyone has any objection please let me know.

Updated the numbers.. Nothing interesting.. Both ioi n ZorroX predicting a jump for Wii next week before the launch of NSMB realse on week after next. ioi n ZorroX's even updated Wii prediction are pretty high..

Interestingly ioi's PS3 prediction is getting pretty spot on.. So PS3 should hit million or so till Jan 31st.. 

For Wii it look like all the eggs for hardware boost are in NSMB.. 



http://techorate.blogspot.com/

http://caylu.wordpress.com/

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Noobie on 30 November 2009
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. Also on PS3, Bayonetta and Winning Eleven 2010 did better than expected and I didn't realise there was a WE2010 bundle.

That said, things have evened up to about where I was expecting them to be at the end of November (in terms of weekly sales) and I expect my December predictions to be pretty accurate - Wii will definitely see a far greater holiday boost and with NSBM Wii looking to launch at around 1m units week one (more than any other Wii title to date) then it should definitely be moving a lot of hardware - existing Mario owners or not. NSMB DS shifted a lot of DS units despite Mario Kart Wii and Super Mario 64 DS having already launched - 2D Mario is just far far more popular in Japan than any other type of Mario title.

Final Fantasy XIII could well get a little higher in week one that first thought as well - 1.4m would be my current estimate based on preorders. PS3 sales should continue to be strong through December with a 175k week when FF XIII launches being entirely possible but I still think Wii will sell far more and also NSMB Wii will comfortably outsell FF XIII for the year as well.

Will be interesting to see how things play out...

So there are some better than expected increase in preorders? Preorders were increasing by ~75k.. so does this means by Dec 12 we will have around 900 k- 1M pre-order for it to hit 1.4M..??

Btw are you now saying that as Wii has underperformed n PS3 has performed better than expected so both have 50-50 chance of reaching the milestone.. cuz Wii  deficit has increased from ~60k to ~140k.. so even if it does better in december.. it needs to first end this deficit so at the end of the Dec if Wii sells more than PS3, it will only be able to eradicate this deficit ??

 



http://techorate.blogspot.com/

http://caylu.wordpress.com/

jarrod on 30 November 2009
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. 

I can agree with Taiko 2 and Crystal Bearers, my jaw literally dropped when I saw the latter's 1st day figures.  SRT Neo you might've had some misplaced faith in though, given it's pretty low budget (with few licenses compared to the usual SRT games) and basically a "kids focused" spinoff itself.  The most comparable game to it in recent years was SRT GC/XO, and it sold a bit better than that actually.



Carl on 30 November 2009
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. Also on PS3, Bayonetta and Winning Eleven 2010 did better than expected and I didn't realise there was a WE2010 bundle.

That said, things have evened up to about where I was expecting them to be at the end of November (in terms of weekly sales) and I expect my December predictions to be pretty accurate - Wii will definitely see a far greater holiday boost and with NSBM Wii looking to launch at around 1m units week one (more than any other Wii title to date) then it should definitely be moving a lot of hardware - existing Mario owners or not. NSMB DS shifted a lot of DS units despite Mario Kart Wii and Super Mario 64 DS having already launched - 2D Mario is just far far more popular in Japan than any other type of Mario title.

Final Fantasy XIII could well get a little higher in week one that first thought as well - 1.4m would be my current estimate based on preorders. PS3 sales should continue to be strong through December with a 175k week when FF XIII launches being entirely possible but I still think Wii will sell far more and also NSMB Wii will comfortably outsell FF XIII for the year as well.

Will be interesting to see how things play out...

175k week for FF13 max?

I'd like to know what you have to say in this thread, if you wouldn't mind.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=93780



                            

darthdevidem01 on 01 December 2009
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. Also on PS3, Bayonetta and Winning Eleven 2010 did better than expected and I didn't realise there was a WE2010 bundle.

That said, things have evened up to about where I was expecting them to be at the end of November (in terms of weekly sales) and I expect my December predictions to be pretty accurate - Wii will definitely see a far greater holiday boost and with NSBM Wii looking to launch at around 1m units week one (more than any other Wii title to date) then it should definitely be moving a lot of hardware - existing Mario owners or not. NSMB DS shifted a lot of DS units despite Mario Kart Wii and Super Mario 64 DS having already launched - 2D Mario is just far far more popular in Japan than any other type of Mario title.

Final Fantasy XIII could well get a little higher in week one that first thought as well - 1.4m would be my current estimate based on preorders. PS3 sales should continue to be strong through December with a 175k week when FF XIII launches being entirely possible but I still think Wii will sell far more and also NSMB Wii will comfortably outsell FF XIII for the year as well.

Will be interesting to see how things play out...

But ioi Japan's biggest retailer said FF13 > NSMB Wii in Japan in December

or are the smaller retail outlets expected to sell more NSMB Wii than FF13?



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

jarrod on 01 December 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. Also on PS3, Bayonetta and Winning Eleven 2010 did better than expected and I didn't realise there was a WE2010 bundle.

That said, things have evened up to about where I was expecting them to be at the end of November (in terms of weekly sales) and I expect my December predictions to be pretty accurate - Wii will definitely see a far greater holiday boost and with NSBM Wii looking to launch at around 1m units week one (more than any other Wii title to date) then it should definitely be moving a lot of hardware - existing Mario owners or not. NSMB DS shifted a lot of DS units despite Mario Kart Wii and Super Mario 64 DS having already launched - 2D Mario is just far far more popular in Japan than any other type of Mario title.

Final Fantasy XIII could well get a little higher in week one that first thought as well - 1.4m would be my current estimate based on preorders. PS3 sales should continue to be strong through December with a 175k week when FF XIII launches being entirely possible but I still think Wii will sell far more and also NSMB Wii will comfortably outsell FF XIII for the year as well.

Will be interesting to see how things play out...

But ioi Japan's biggest retailer said FF13 > NSMB Wii in Japan in December

or are the smaller retail outlets expected to sell more NSMB Wii than FF13?

You mean Japan's biggest rental chain with a small games business on the side. ;)

 

edit: The Tsutaya rep also thinks Modern Warfare 2 will make the December top 10 (lol).