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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 to sell over 15 Million LTD or only over 10?

atma998 on 10 November 2009
ZorroX said:
atma998 said:
ZorroX said:
So 600k during PS3 slim launch week is nothing?
Selling around 250k+ every week since slim launch is weak brand?

Do you remember what PS3 sales people predicted for slim first week and first month?
PS3 lost its position in NA, but it`s still VERY strong in Europe and Japan.

And have MGS4 taught you anything?


Stop always taking MGS4 as an example (btw MGS4 didnt even come close to the 10 mil sales). Look at GTAIV numbers instead and compare them to GTA:SA, then you will have a better idea of what is coming up for GT5. Knowing that GTA is a greater franchise than GT, exclusive or not.

MGS was never a 10M seller. Even on PS2 it never sold more than 7M copies. And GTAIV wasn`t a timed exclusive on PS3, neither had exclusive DLC, but still on both consoles it already sold over 13M copies.

GT5 is PS3 exclusive and is the biggest PlayStation franchise. Also GT has as strong fanbase as MGS, 10M+ is a given.

Yes but like others have said before, the best selling PS3 game doesnt even reached 6 million yet, I don't see how a GT5 will come close to 10 or 15 million. The exlusivity of a game doesnt guarantee bigger sales btw.



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Wass on 10 November 2009

IMO, Sony will advertise the shit out of GT5. I mean, come on, Sony is not dominating like they were with the PS2, and is struggling this generation. This means GT5 is one of the major stuff for Sony to regain it status.

 

That being said, it will probably sell 12 millions.



ZorroX on 10 November 2009
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
saicho said:
ZorroX said:
MGS4 sold 3 mln. in 8 weeks with 14 mln. PS3.
GT is more popular and bigger franchise, than MGS.
28 mln. PS3 could mean 6 mln. GT5 in 8 weeks if GT5 would be released on same week WW.

Brand power means a lot this gen for big titles like GTA, Halo, MGS, GT.

And in Japan GT5 will sell over 1 mln. in worst case.

I think it's actually the best case for GT5 to sell over 1 million in Japan.

 

Also, MGS4 is only at 4.29 mil WW right now. That's only 43% more than it was at after 8 weeks of release. Applying it to the 6 mil after 8 weeks estimation you had for GT5, we have 8.58 mil after 17 months. It would be some time before it reaches 10 mil and a long long way from 15 mil.

Japan  Title Units (K)* Release
Gran Turismo 2,550 
Gran Turismo 2 1,710
Gran Turismo 3 A-spec 1,890
Gran Turismo Concept 2001 TOKYO 430
Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue” 790
Gran Turismo 4  1,270
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue” 710
Total 9,350

According to Konami, MGS4 sold 4.7-5M LTD and it`s continue selling 15-20k week even now. 

Last shipment figures I recall were 4.5m for MGS4 and "over 7m" for both MGS1 and MGS2 (not counting Integral or Substance or PC/Xbox ports).  MGS3 was only 4m though iirc (not counting Subsistence), but then that was coming off the blowback from MGS2.

GT5 Prologue was mercilessly bundled (for free) in Japan too, and tracking figures actually support that half it's sales came from bundles.  Standalone sales were half what GT4 Prologue managed.

Recap Update: (~= around)
MGS1 ~ 6.5 million 
MGS2 ~ 7.5 million
MGS3 ~ 4.5 million
MGS4 ~ 4.75 million
I took these numbers from MGS4 page here. And MGS4 is nowhere from stop selling.

Minna no Golf 5 was also bundled in Japan, but it still didn`t sell as much as GT5P. GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, it`s a given.

x360:
1 Halo 3 10.32m
2 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 7.88m
3 Grand Theft Auto IV 7.28m
+3M Halo 3 over GTAIV
FPS are more popular on x360.

PS3:
1 Grand Theft Auto IV - 5.91m
2 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 4.72m
+3M GT5 over GTA4

And racing games(GT > Halo) were more popular on PlayStation +1M GT5 sales,
that is 10M+ in worst case.



thx1139 on 10 November 2009

I also believe the environment for racers is different now. The generation is so much further along when GT5 releases and that brings about the fact that GT5 isnt the showcase racer to wow people this generation like it did in the past. So many other racers have been released GT5 just wont have the same wow factor.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

ZorroX on 10 November 2009

^ What wow effect had Halo 3? GTA 4?
Anyway, in 5 weeks FFXIII will be released, though Uncharted 2 sales already showing some positive signs.
And MGS4 won`t stop selling. It will be over 5M next year.
GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, maybe 2M+.



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jarrod on 10 November 2009
ZorroX said:
^ What wow effect had Halo 3? GTA 4?
Anyway, in 5 weeks FFXIII will be released, though Uncharted 2 sales already showing some positive signs.
And MGS4 won`t stop selling. It will be over 5M next year.
GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, maybe 2M+.

MGS4 sales dropped off a cliff after launch.  It's only going to get a push when it's a GH rerelease, and even then it won't come close to MGS1/2 figures.

1m for GT5 in Japan is unlikely, 2m is frankly impossible.  This isn't Mario Kart.



ArcticGabe on 10 November 2009
ZorroX said:

x360:
1 Halo 3 10.32m
2 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 7.88m
3 Grand Theft Auto IV 7.28m
+3M Halo 3 over GTAIV
FPS are more popular on x360.

PS3:
1 Grand Theft Auto IV - 5.91m
2 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 4.72m
+3M GT5 over GTA4

And racing games(GT > Halo) were more popular on PlayStation +1M GT5 sales,
that is 10M+ in worst case.


What? You sure are good at maths. :)



ZorroX on 10 November 2009
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
^ What wow effect had Halo 3? GTA 4?
Anyway, in 5 weeks FFXIII will be released, though Uncharted 2 sales already showing some positive signs.
And MGS4 won`t stop selling. It will be over 5M next year.
GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, maybe 2M+.

MGS4 sales dropped off a cliff after launch.  It's only going to get a push when it's a GH rerelease, and even then it won't come close to MGS1/2 figures.

1m for GT5 in Japan is unlikely, 2m is frankly impossible.  This isn't Mario Kart.

MGS4 sold better than MGS3 on a smaller userbase. MGS4 still continue selling, it probably will be 4.5M-4.7M on VGC after this Christmas and 5M+ LTD on Konami site. And selling additional 1.5M in next 3 years with average 10k per week, which include 3 Christmas boost is nothing impossible.

GT5 is first full GT game, which will have full Online mode. Nobody cares? We shall see.



jarrod on 10 November 2009
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
^ What wow effect had Halo 3? GTA 4?
Anyway, in 5 weeks FFXIII will be released, though Uncharted 2 sales already showing some positive signs.
And MGS4 won`t stop selling. It will be over 5M next year.
GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, maybe 2M+.

MGS4 sales dropped off a cliff after launch.  It's only going to get a push when it's a GH rerelease, and even then it won't come close to MGS1/2 figures.

1m for GT5 in Japan is unlikely, 2m is frankly impossible.  This isn't Mario Kart.

MGS4 sold better than MGS3 on a smaller userbase. MGS4 still continue selling, it probably will be 4.5M-4.7M on VGC after this Christmas and 5M+ LTD on Konami site. And selling additional 1.5M in next 3 years with average 10k per week, which include 3 Christmas boost is nothing impossible.

GT5 is first full GT game, which will have full Online mode. Nobody cares? We shall see.

MGS4 was well overshipped upfront.  It did outperform MGS3, but it had far heavier promotion too and wasn't coming off MGS2's mixed reception.  I think it's similar to what happened with DMC2/3/4.

And stop putting words in my mouth, of course people will care about GT5.  About 7-8 million of them. 



ZorroX on 10 November 2009
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
^ What wow effect had Halo 3? GTA 4?
Anyway, in 5 weeks FFXIII will be released, though Uncharted 2 sales already showing some positive signs.
And MGS4 won`t stop selling. It will be over 5M next year.
GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, maybe 2M+.

MGS4 sales dropped off a cliff after launch.  It's only going to get a push when it's a GH rerelease, and even then it won't come close to MGS1/2 figures.

1m for GT5 in Japan is unlikely, 2m is frankly impossible.  This isn't Mario Kart.

MGS4 sold better than MGS3 on a smaller userbase. MGS4 still continue selling, it probably will be 4.5M-4.7M on VGC after this Christmas and 5M+ LTD on Konami site. And selling additional 1.5M in next 3 years with average 10k per week, which include 3 Christmas boost is nothing impossible.

GT5 is first full GT game, which will have full Online mode. Nobody cares? We shall see.

MGS4 was well overshipped upfront.  It did outperform MGS3, but it had far heavier promotion too and wasn't coming off MGS2's mixed reception.  I think it's similar to what happened with DMC2/3/4.

And stop putting words in my mouth, of course people will care about GT5.  About 7-8 million of them. 

So are you saying, GT5 promotion will suck? I don`t get it. What will stop GT5 from selling 10m+ LTD?

Gran Turismo is more popular, than Halo. Gran Turismo 5 to sell over Halo 3. Easy.