Gran Turismo 5 to sell over 15 Million LTD or only over 10?

[ZorroX]

jarrod said:

ZorroX said:

saicho said:

ZorroX said:
MGS4 sold 3 mln. in 8 weeks with 14 mln. PS3.
GT is more popular and bigger franchise, than MGS.
28 mln. PS3 could mean 6 mln. GT5 in 8 weeks if GT5 would be released on same week WW.

Brand power means a lot this gen for big titles like GTA, Halo, MGS, GT.

And in Japan GT5 will sell over 1 mln. in worst case.

I think it's actually the best case for GT5 to sell over 1 million in Japan.

 

Also, MGS4 is only at 4.29 mil WW right now. That's only 43% more than it was at after 8 weeks of release. Applying it to the 6 mil after 8 weeks estimation you had for GT5, we have 8.58 mil after 17 months. It would be some time before it reaches 10 mil and a long long way from 15 mil.

Japan  Title Units (K)* Release
Gran Turismo 2,550 
Gran Turismo 2 1,710
Gran Turismo 3 A-spec 1,890
Gran Turismo Concept 2001 TOKYO 430
Gran Turismo 4 “Prologue” 790
Gran Turismo 4  1,270
Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue” 710
Total 9,350

According to Konami, MGS4 sold 4.7-5M LTD and it`s continue selling 15-20k week even now. 

Last shipment figures I recall were 4.5m for MGS4 and "over 7m" for both MGS1 and MGS2 (not counting Integral or Substance or PC/Xbox ports).  MGS3 was only 4m though iirc (not counting Subsistence), but then that was coming off the blowback from MGS2.

GT5 Prologue was mercilessly bundled (for free) in Japan too, and tracking figures actually support that half it's sales came from bundles.  Standalone sales were half what GT4 Prologue managed.

Recap Update: (~= around)
MGS1 ~ 6.5 million 
MGS2 ~ 7.5 million
MGS3 ~ 4.5 million
MGS4 ~ 4.75 million
I took these numbers from MGS4 page here. And MGS4 is nowhere from stop selling.

Minna no Golf 5 was also bundled in Japan, but it still didn`t sell as much as GT5P. GT5 will sell over 1M in Japan, it`s a given.

x360:
1 Halo 3 10.32m
2 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 7.88m
3 Grand Theft Auto IV 7.28m
+3M Halo 3 over GTAIV
FPS are more popular on x360.

PS3:
1 Grand Theft Auto IV - 5.91m
2 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 4.72m
+3M GT5 over GTA4

And racing games(GT > Halo) were more popular on PlayStation +1M GT5 sales,
that is 10M+ in worst case.