@ioi -
1) PS2 cost same as Wii cost now. PS3 is selling same as Wii so far.
2) PS2 slim launched by the end of October. Yeah, 8 week difference. Main boost of PS3 came on first 5 weeks. That will slow PS3 sales compared to PS2.
3) Because PS3 cost 40k yen, while PS2 cost 20-30k during Christmas season.
4) I think FFXIII will sell around 1.5 mln. first week. MGS4 sold around 500k first week with 2 mln. PS3. FFXIII is a bigger game, it will have atleast 30-35% attach rate of PS3 userbase(4.2-4.5 mln.).
5) I think, FFXIII will be more than enough. Tekken 6, Bayonetta, PES11 will help too.
6) PS2 was significantly cheaper than PS3.
7) Main difference, PS3 still has a small userbase in Japan, it has a lot of untapped Japan market left willing to buy PS3 at affordable 30k yen this Christmas.

Anyway, 2 months only left. We will see.

One thing I will agree with you is the PS3 ain't gonna hit 5 million units before march, even if your PS3 numbers were off they clearly show that.

So the only question that remains is whether the Wii will manage to hit 10 millions before that date or not ( with your updated numbers the Wii is now hitting 10 millions  the first week of february).

Personnaly I think you are a little overestimating the 2 weeks around Chrismas and the Wii will end January around 9.85 million units but probably will still win the contest mid March.

so PES will boost sales though there are already 2 previous versions... hmmm

Glad someone finally said it. LoL.

Based on your definition, what other huge game do you expect to see for PS3?

With current announced titles, I can only see FF Versus XIII as another one. I don't even think GT5 is a given.

Did we really sink that low, that we're equating a console, any console, reaching 5 million to another reaching 10?

Whatever happened to lack of bias? If you want to celebrate 5 million, at least pick good comparisons. Or just celebrate, I would have if I cared when the N64 reached 5 million, but I'm not delusional about it.

Is this some kind of strange alternative universe, where common sense doesn't exist?

No one in this thread equated 5 million to 10 million. So no one sunk that low. What we're doing here is having a fun little contest about sales numbers best we can. I don't see how this is bias or lacking of common sense. You derived out of no where really.

@kopstudent89 - PES + new affordable PS3 price. Yes.

@saicho,
Huge - FFXIII, FFXIIIv, GT5.
Big - LP2, Yakuza 4, SO4i, FFXIV so far.

@Azelover - you missed the point, this is a RACE, not just some celebration.

But I think you have to acknowledge that many factors have changed this generation.  Based on what you said, I looked back at the historical data from last generation and divided the peak holiday sales each year by the sales of the equivalent to this week to figure out just what that factor was.  And I found that you're correct.  Nintendo (with the exception of 2002) has always had at least double the boost effect as Sony.

But this generation...

The Wii has yet to show the kind of holiday boosts that Gamecube had and last year things reversed in terms of the holiday effect.

I don't think too much can be extracted from past generations' boosts.  It has less to do with Nintendo vs. Sony as it does with which consoles sell better in off-holiday periods (i.e. which consoles adults buy for themselves instead of solely as presents for the kids).  In the past, it has been Sony for obvious reasons.  This generation it's Nintendo because of Wii Fit and broad appeal of motion control and because the PS3 has been too expensive for most people except as a big family present (and for many it's been too expensive even for that). 

And now with both price drops things have changed again.  People are buying PS3's for themselves now which suggests a moderate holiday spike, but on the other hand I think there is major pent-up demand for people to replace their aging PS2's. The bulk of that effect will be during the holiday period rather than right now and I think the PS2 -> PS3 upgrade path is more likely than PS2 -> Wii.  The GC -> Wii customer is long gone.

I dont think Wii is going to hit above 150k more than once in this holiday... especially after seeing that it has dropped more 20% (from 33k to 27k) within 2 weeks after a price cut... 20% is significant cuz it didn't rise that much either.. and even than it is falling... so to me it shows that demand is falling n it is reaching saturation point fast...

i do believe that Wii will win this holidays but it will not race to 10m first..

Anyway i m keeping a close eye through my thread which i will update with your updated prediction but i think the console which will be able to sustain in Jan - March better is going to win..