| ioi said: I'm not using history of this gen - I'm looking back over the last 3-4 gens. Nintendo always has at least twice as strong a boost in hardware sales over the holidays as Sony. |
But I think you have to acknowledge that many factors have changed this generation. Based on what you said, I looked back at the historical data from last generation and divided the peak holiday sales each year by the sales of the equivalent to this week to figure out just what that factor was. And I found that you're correct. Nintendo (with the exception of 2002) has always had at least double the boost effect as Sony.
| Peak week / Oct 17 equivalent week | PS2 | GC |
| 2000 | 3.5 | - |
| 2001 | 7.6 | 20.4 |
| 2002 | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| 2003 | 9.3 | 19.2 |
| 2004 | 8.1 | 18.5 |
| 2005 | 4.0 | 19.4 |
But this generation...
| Peak week / Oct 17 equivalent week | PS3 | Wii |
| 2007 | 6.5 | 11.1 |
| 2008 | 13.5 | 5.8 |
The Wii has yet to show the kind of holiday boosts that Gamecube had and last year things reversed in terms of the holiday effect.
I don't think too much can be extracted from past generations' boosts. It has less to do with Nintendo vs. Sony as it does with which consoles sell better in off-holiday periods (i.e. which consoles adults buy for themselves instead of solely as presents for the kids). In the past, it has been Sony for obvious reasons. This generation it's Nintendo because of Wii Fit and broad appeal of motion control and because the PS3 has been too expensive for most people except as a big family present (and for many it's been too expensive even for that).
And now with both price drops things have changed again. People are buying PS3's for themselves now which suggests a moderate holiday spike, but on the other hand I think there is major pent-up demand for people to replace their aging PS2's. The bulk of that effect will be during the holiday period rather than right now and I think the PS2 -> PS3 upgrade path is more likely than PS2 -> Wii. The GC -> Wii customer is long gone.
