If it launches in 2009... 10 million at end of 2010 and about 3 million at end 2009.

@luvtospooge

answer my question

will we EVER know the standalone sales of GT5? no

so I think you have the answer to your question

Well you asked me the question and you already answered it so..

Okie dokie then.

First, GT5 will not sell 10M in 2009, period.  I've already acknowledged that it is possible for it to sell 10 million lifetime given the past strength of the IP, but 15 million will not happen without more extensive bundling than we've seen of any game yet this gen excepting only Wii Sports.

As for your condescending remark about Xbox fanboys, I feel obliged to remind you that many of them were PS2 owners who probably owned a copy or two of GT.  Thus if they decide that they're content with Forza 3 then it will matter in the real world. 

I say GT5 will sell over 1.5 million first week.

Any takers?

I'd be willing to bet with you that GT5 will be under 7.5 million by the end of 2009.

GT5 wont sell 10m in 2009 and It won't stop at 5-6m LTD either.

@kantor

if he takes the bet, then I'll put you guys up as fighters 2!

My personal guess would be 9M lifetime sales. Not tdoing bets though because I think they're stupid.

I'd also say 5M by the end of '09.

Does anyone have statistics on how frontloaded GT games usually are?

Gran Turismo 4:

First Week: 2.47 million

First 5 weeks: 4.48 million

First 10 weeks: 5.09 million

Lifetime: 10.36 million.

The second week was just under a million, the third just under 500k. The first 8 weeks were over 100k, and 9 was just below. 10 was 88k.

Those are WW week numbers, because it had quite a staggered launch.

So, it doubled its first ten weeks and quadrupled its opening week.