Nice try.

Not probable but maybe...,, but in 12 mounths timr the new upspeced 360 anf natal console will be realeased giving it far more pull as a new console than just a slim version.

well crap, I gotta sell my 360. I can't have the least popular console!!!

The amusing thing is that PS3 would need to outsell the 360 by ~115k per week to overtake the 360 by the end of 2010 -- and this isn't going to happen. By the end of 2011 however is a different story since the PS3 would only need to outsell the 360 by ~64k per week, which is possible if SONY is able to keep up the momentum. (im thinking a $50 price drop late 2010 + FFvs.XIIIZ(japan only) )

Well, that would be true, IF MS didn't release any new SKUs, and IF they don't drop any prices, and IF they don't release Natal, and IF they don't release any good games. So...you do the math.

Actually, it's more likely then you think. You need to take into account that 360 sales are going to be slipping as it continues to saturate the market at it's current price point the same way the PS3 did over the past year. Furthermore, PS3 is more likely than not going to vastly outsell the 360 this holiday by quite a bit more than 115k a week with it's recent price drop combined with the releases of Final Fantasy XIII and Gran Turismo 5. This will help offset the amount that the PS3 needs to outsell the 360 in the off-season.

Don't read this as me implying that the PS3 is likely to close the gap by then end of next year, but if the PS3 outsells the 360 by the amount that the 360 outsold the PS3 last holiday (About 2 to 1) then it's definitely possible that the PS3 could be in the lead by 2011 baring a significant disruption from Microsoft.

Oh no it won't, even if it does 360 is not closed to being done.