Wow I am on that list and I think my prediction was pretty damn good. It seems like just a tiny bit of bundling could even get it passed 2 mill.

Oh, PSRock, you forgot a few Infamous predictions from the infamous game page:

Skeeuk posted 26/05/2009, 07:24
should do 300k 1st week, and 2 million lifetime

ElectronicRocker posted 26/05/2009, 02:15
240k first week
1,4 million ltd

ninjascroll posted 26/05/2009, 07:29
I go for 400k First week maybe 2mill by years end. The Uncharted multiplayer demo should increase the sales guess we wait to see.

 FootballFan posted 25/05/2009, 07:17
100K SALES FIRST WEEK,
1.5 MILLION LIFETIME

Dark Odin posted 12/05/2009, 06:39
1 million in 7-8 weeks. 2 million lifetime

CaptainDJ posted 10/05/2009, 01:58
I think this game will sell 2 million lifetime.

Thechalkblock posted 02/05/2009, 08:03
I predict 87% on metacritic, 300,000 first week sales, 1.5 million lifetime.

 Slimebeast posted 12/04/2009, 12:37
I predict 82% on Gamerankings, 240,000 copies 1st week and 800,000 lifetime.

CrazzyMan posted 27/05/2009, 02:31
300-500k First week WW.
LTD around 3-4 mln. atleast. =)

Little bit higher than your median, PSrock. May want to include them.

^ok so let me see if I got this right. Fanboy predictions/expectations is what determines whether a game is selling well or not?

perpride - Just a few references since others wanted to throw 'em in there.

I guess on my end, the real comparison would be Infamous vs. other new AAA sandbox IPs like Saints Row, Crackdown and Prototype.

For comparison:

Assassin's Creed: 7.96m
Saints Row: 1.98m
Crackdown: 1.51m
Prototype: 1.41m
Infamous: 0.85m
Godfather 2: 0.83m

Given the trends, Infamous would be in the lower tier of that, between 1.1-1.3m. We can argue comparables, but if Infamous is lower than most other new AAA sandbox titles, what is it?

Mrstickball, mostly everyone expect 1 million plus and the game is headed that way. Yes, there's always people who will over expect like your 5 million for FABLE 2, but that's the exception.

psrock, where'd I say Fable 2 would hit 5 million units sold?

I said 4 million here:
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=48370

I said between 3-5m here
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=41980

This was a month before it came out, and I was stating that if the game did everything right. It didn't in my opinion.

Fable 2 stands at 3.07 million, at the low end of my prediction, and outsold Infamous last week, at 22,000 units. If we're arguing what Infamous will sell, then it should be stated that Fable will hit my median prediction of 4 million.

I guess you didnt get my point. what is people's prediction has to do with the success of a game. infamous is doing fine and is on its way to over 1 million, and yes it's not a AAA game, it's a good game.

Go look at Uncharted Sales, I remember that game being called a bomb too.

Why do people always ignore the holiday boost? Even Metal Gear Solid 4, a game with an insane opening week and almost no legs to stand on recieved a boost over the '08 holidays, going from 18k a week all the way up to 40k.

Around late October or so, InFamous' declining sales trend will likely reverse.  Possibly sooner.

Who said anything about banning? Felt the need to bring that up for no reason? You're a mod, you're held to a higher standard. You know you shouldn't go to games you've never played and have no interest in and don't even like at all and make negative, unfounded comments about it. Of course, this doesn't matter to you. I'm not saying that we have no idea what the lifetime sales will be. Rather, I said that YOU have no idea what the lifetime sales will be. Apparently you think (or thought, because you can't keep one opinion together) that the game was a bomb after 14 weeks, even though it was well on its way to a million. I don't really think you can gauge sales trends from 6 weeks in either. For its first few weeks, Halo 3 was selling on the level of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. However, its lifetime sales look like they will be nowhere close. And even over a year after it came out, I don't think many people would have predicted just how much Halo 3 would sell. Considering how casual centric the market has become, and the sales trends of games on different platforms, most games require WAY MORE than 4-6 weeks. I bet that for every game that you could tell the lifetime sales of within 4-6 weeks, I could name a dozen counterexamples.

Prototype has sold 1.3 million between both systems, but that also comes with the costs of multiplatform development. Developing for the PS3, 360, and PC isn't cheap. In fact, it's absolutely, ridiculously expensive. It seems to be bankrupting a lot of developers. By the way, I hope you're not comparing my post to yours. Arguing profitability isn't trolling. Saying things like "ouch" and "bomba" is trolling, and you know better. Or maybe you don't. You're frankly just annoying. I never said that games cost more this generation to develop, I'm just saying that it really depends on the game. You can make a ballpark estimate of what certain games cost to make, but you can never make definitive statements to that point. For example, Shenmue was a last generation game, and cost like, what? 70 million to make? Gears of War came out this generation, has way better graphics and technology, and costs 10 million to make. I highly doubt that Sly Cooper costs anywhere near the same amount to make as inFamous, but I also think that in total sales, inFamous will come out on top. Heck, most developers aren't making anywhere near as much money as they did last generation. Just turning a profit seems to be nothing short of a miracle for most companies. However, inFamous looks to be doing more than that. The legs do look like they'll continue. It hasn't dropped with PS3 sales being sub-100k, so I'm sure it will do just fine in the coming weeks. Maybe it will drop below 15k, but I'm not expecting anything big. If it can keep up a similar level of sales even past its first 10 weeks, it's doing great. That's better than 90% of the HD games on the market, and it's a great sign for inFamous. Now, of course its sales have been dropping. Staying above 20k isn't easy when you're not a big HD title, or a game on the Wii or DS. However, you seem to be forgetting all about the GIGANTIC SHOPPING SEASON coming in about 2-3 months. This will boost the sales of all titles incredibly, but also those of inFamous. So no, it's not going to continue dropping. After Christmas time, it could easily be over a million. Then, when given the natural trend of sales (legs in 2010, another holiday season), it could inch to 1.5 million. Those are solid sales, and you can't argue that that is unprofitable. That's 90 million dollars in profit. Unless this game broke Sony's bank (or it's somewhere on the budget level of Killzone 2), that will suffice.

InFamous will have legs, because it has already shown that it has legs. I don't even know why you mentioned Sony fans. Sony fans aren't the definitive answer to everything, although I suppose you will take them as such because it furthers your own argument. Maybe I'll take the predictions of all 360 fanboys to make fun of 360 games. Why not? There seem to be enough wacky ones around here. inFamous isn't just a nice exclusive, it's a solid one. Selling nearly a million units is fantastic no matter what time frame it was done in. Which would you rather have: A game sell 2 million in a year or a game sell 1 million in half a year (the sales of both games being irrelevant past then)? Profits stack up over time, it's how companies like Nintendo and Ubisoft remain so successful. Caring about sales only in a small window of time is an outdated methodology that's fairly meaningless in the modern market. And why are you comparing this to some of these games? Seriously, did you just compare inFamous to Wii Fit? Do you have no dignity at all? Games like Wii Fit and Mario Kart are huge successes from Nintendo that have become kings of this generation, and the fact that you brought them up only gives me the opportunity to make fun of the 360. After all, Wii Fit and Mario Kart have certainly jogged and lapped past the biggest games on the 360 (which also have much higher budgets). I'm still laughing at the fact that you were so desperate as to bring up Mario Kart and Wii Fit to compare them to inFamous. Yes, we all know that Sony was expecting inFamous to be the new Wii Fit. Excuse me while I laugh at your expense. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. There, that's better.

Don't marketing expenses apply to a lot of games? I do remember a lot of advertisements for inFamous, but it depends on who you mean it will be profitable for. Sony handled the advertising, and they had billions to do it with. It likely didn't cost Sucker Punch a penny. So perhaps Sony might have lost money on the title. Sucker Punch, however, must have made a big profit on inFamous. By the way, where did you get the idea that inFamous and most other HD titles cost 20 million or more to make? I've read a lot (10 million, 13-14 million), but never something that high. Some games cost in that range (Heavenly Sword comes to mind), but a lot of those games were early titles or games with lots of cinematics. Now, you could claim that inFamous has a lot of cinematics, or you could claim it doesn't. I doubt you'd know anyways since it's obvious you've never played the game. Let's assume Sony and Sucker Punch only get 20 bucks per copy of inFamous sold, and the game sells 1.5 million lifetime (since that certainly looks possible). That's 30 million revenue, a pretty good buffer for a game that may have gone over a 20 million dollar budget. And that's all speculation, of course. On the other hand, I don't go around saying stupid things like a game being a bomb just because it didn't sell a certain amount of copies in a certain amount of time.

I'm glad you went back to the bomb quote, it will help you realize how absolutely stupid it was. inFamous sold nowhere near Crackdown when it launched. Now, if memory serves (I can't go to check while reading this post), Crackdown had a launch higher than 300k in the Americas. InFamous was never anywhere close to that, nor should you have ever thought it was. Crackdown sold well because a bunch of people wanted to play the Halo 3 demo (and to its credit, it was a great game, but the demo certainly helped). Vgchartz raised the sales of inFamous after NPD data was released, meaning the game sold even more than the starting data indicated. So, in other words, it was actually more of a success than it first appeared.

Your expectations aren't equal to those of Sony. Sucker Punch has never produced an amazingly big game, and I doubt Sony was expecting them to. Do you really think Sony expected the game to sell like Crackdown or 2 hyped up multiplatforms? Saint's Row came out at a time where there weren't a lot of big 360 games, and 360 fans bought every last big exclusive that came out. So yeah, maybe Saint's Row is a somewhat fair comparison. On the other hand, inFamous looks like it should end up in a similar level of sales (1.5-2 million), so it's not the biggest deal. So, we've got that Halo 3 beta game, or Prototype? I really doubt Sony thought inFamous was in the range of Prototype at all (by the way, forgot about the Prototype marketing?).

And the last paragraph you finally start to see the light, and for once, maybe, I can stop being depressed debating with you. But hey, I like you Stickball. You lose debates and you doesn't afraid of anything.

@monti
Hell of a read there... almost enough to make my eyes bleed but to make a long story short "owned"