Is everyone forgetting about Mario and Sonic at the Olympics?

I don't understand why several people are assuming Halo 3 will be selling so well in nov/dec, 33% of the console owners already have it

Wii / PS3 / 360 in Japan / NA only:

1. Super Mario Galaxy
2. Mario and Sonic At the Olympic Games
3. Mass Effect
4. Guitar Hero III (360)
5. Call of Duty 4 (360)
6. Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
7. Assassin's Creed (360)
8. Wii Fit
9. Guitar Hero III (Wii)
10. Rayman Raving Rabids 2

Guitar Hero III is hurt pretty hard by the fact first week sales don't count (or first 4 days?). I think this is going to be a pretty telling period for third parties deciding if their games will sell on the Wii, and they'll all be eyeing up RE:UC, GHIII, Z&W, RRR2, Manhunt 2 and a few more to maybe decide how much resources they dare put into the console.

#1 - Super Mario Galaxy
#2 - Guitar Hero III
#3 - Call of Duty 4
#4 - Mario & Sonic at the Olympics
#5 - Mass Effect
#6 - WiiFit
#7 - Halo 3
#8 - Madden 2008
#9 - Rock Band
#10 - Assassins Creed

I have no clue what type of games ME and AC are I usually don't like Xbox 360 games, though and don't even care to look them up so I am going on the hype I heard. Also, I don't like CofD or Halo but I knew they sell. I would have Mario & Sonic higher but it will not be released till the last week in Japan and will not be on DS in America until next year. As long as Rock Band is as strong as I think it will, all editions of GHIII will not be enough to beat SMG. However, if Rock Band is not strong, I except GHIII to beat SMG.

Well, it is reasonable to assume that there will be loads and loads of new Xbox360 owners over the holidays of whom a LOT will want to buy Halo3, Bioshock and Gears of War bezause those are THE games for that platform, just like Zelda TP will have a boost (though not in the same order of magnitude).

Last year X360 sold about 2M units through november and december. With an attach rate of 33% that'll make another 600k units of Halo3 without the cutrrent owners that waited for Christmas to get/recieve the game.

That's one of the reasons this period is so interesting, old games can make a return in the charts because the install bases increase dramatically. 

I would expect a 40-50% attach rate for Halo3 on new 360s over the holiday.

Nirth America only!
1. mass effect (360)
2. super mario galaxy (wii)
3. call of duty (360)
4. guitar hero 3 (360)
5. halo 3 (360)
6. guitar hero 3 (wii)
7. Need for speed pro (360)
8. Mario & Sonic at the Olympics (Wii)
9. Need for speed (PS3)
10. smak down v. raw 2008 (360)
11. smak down v. raw 2008 (PS3)
12. Assassins Creed (360)

It's hard to predict ...
but from the previous selling
360 is the best in the software

so, now that Guitar Hero 3 (ps2) is at 719,xxx sold and Guitar Hero 3 (wii) is at 438,xxx sold, is anybody willing to admit they maybe overestimated the sales of this game on the wii? and that excluding the ps2 from sales predictions at this point is pretty stupid, as anything that nearly doubles a current gen console in sales is still relevant.

Soccer? Ha, ha, ha. Soccer isn't going anywhere. Guitar Hero 3 wont stand a chance against Galaxy. Galaxy will be the definite winner!