Munkeh111 said:
Slimebeast said:
140 people x 2 = 280 man years (extended over 3 years of development, 3 times 90 guys on average if you like)
Each man years costs $150,000.
Total dev cost KZ2: 280 x $150k= $42 million. That's a minimum/conservative estimation in my opinion. And marketing costs excluded of course.
Including marketing, total game creation costs: ~$60 million, so KZ2 will need to sell roughly $60 million/$30 = 2 million copies to break even. (excluding bundled copies since they don't contribute even one dime in revenue, although bundles help selll consoles and other games of course)
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I think $150k is too high, Squilliam has once suggested $100k per dev, which I think it varies between those 2, and I would say KZ 2 is more likely to be about $120k
Just look at ND. Uncharted 1 cost $20m which was 2 years of about 90 people, but that included creating the engine and learning how to code on the PS3. Uncharted 2 is another 2 years with 100+ people, and that is also costing $20m
What we can agree, was that KZ 2 is very expensive, and at 1.8m is probably about even, maybe a little under with some copies going cheap.
Also remember that that Gears figure does not include engine costs, and the large marketing, so I don't think you could get 3 GeoWs for the price of 1, but certainly 1.5-1.75.
There is too much guesswork to put a more solid figure
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Why should a game add in engine costs, if it doesn't need a new engine?
That's why some studios are saving tons of money, while others are majorly in the hole (hello EA).
If your making a new, one-off engine for a specific game, it can and should cost more, and be a 'bad' comparason to a game with similar features that uses a native engine to your company.
This is why many studios are going bankrupt, and why so many studios are shying away from developing on certain platforms without significant incentives. This is why major 3rd party titles aren't getting sequels, and/or the costs are so insane: studios are pumping too much cash into their title to create something that could be done on another toolset.
For example, Capcom uses their MT Framework - a native engine for many of their current-gen titles. Games as old as Dead Rising use it, as well as Devil May Cry 4, Resident Evil 5, Dead Rising 2, and Lost Planet 2. They have saved millions of dollars by doing this, as they are no longer being forced to spend $5-10 million per game to create a new engine.
Having your own engine, and not citing costs for it is absolutely fair game. Why? Epic has made money from the engine. Period. They have sold so many licenses, why should they add in costs to Gears, when any costs have been absorbed by a thousand other titles? Go ahead and throw marketing in if you like, but it still doesn't change the fact that the actual pay to the devs to make the entire Gears trilogy may equate to one Killzone product (KZ2). We weren't talking about cost to bring to market, because we know that would be higher for both titles - just the core of development costs.
I work for a developer that makes and uses their own engine. I know how efficient and 'unfair' it is for a studio to have one in-house, but the fact is, it's why many studios have gone bankrupt. Many are using methods of one-off engines that worked 5-20 years ago, and doesn't work now, because the solutions are just too complex. To me, this is like arguing that a factory using an assembly line with robots (and their associated costs) is 'unfair' opposed to the pre-assembly line practices of factories 120 years ago, assuming similar wages- there's huge cost-cutting methods involved. That's how technology progresses.
Cost cutting is available, and some stupid studios like Guerilla Games don't use it. That's not a Sony, or PS3 problem. That's a developer problem. That's why some Japanese studios are raking in the cash while Western ones are dying, and forcing mergers. It's why Nintendo does great - they know their product, their engines, and what's needed to bring a title to market, thus why they can pump out so many quality games and make money from them. Unfair advantage? No. Smart business practice.
This is why Naughty Dog made, and is making Uncharted on the cheap for a fraction of Killzone - just like what Epic does with Unreal. That's the way smart developers go. Also note that the initial image states that Gears used 20 middleware libraries - more proof that when half your assets are already built, you can save money 