Probably around 2m, maybe a bit more

Someone needs to fact check.

The average Final Fantasy game does not sell 3 million. That is the exception.

The average would be around 2.5-2.6 million.

I expect this one to pass 2 million eventually lifetime. The Final Fantasy base is still there and they're not going to miss out on it.

OP said "first FF game every gen sells 3 million".

I don't know if that's true; just checking in case you misread.

Seeing that there will be a slim or pricecut before its release, i could see it doing possibly 1.5-2million 1st week.

Assuming that they make and release more than one copy, I expect first week sales to exceed one copy.

You know, you should really keep your Sony fanboyishness out of predictions. It makes you predict unreasonably high sales.

Expect hundreds of "FFXIII bombed" threads when it comes out because of his prediction.
Sigh.. this always happens on every hyped ps3 game.
When will the cycle end?

When Sony fanboys like Squilliam learn to be down to earth.

I mean, this makes CrazzyMan's prediction of Killzone 2 selling 10 million seem reasonable by comparison.

Depends on how far back you want to go.

Final Fantasy IV on the SNES sold less than 1.43 million in Japan. That was the first, I believe, FF game for the SNES.

In the past, most of the FF games have been concentrated on the same platform as the main FF. NES, SNES, PS, PS2...things are now different. A ton of FF games are on Wii: FF1, FF2, FF3, 3 different WW games, 2-3 Wii games. Plus a lot of FF games are on DS or PSP. Then you have to look at all of the RPGs on Xbox 360. Plus now MH is a big thing in Japan and that is only on PSP and Wii.

Like other have said, things have changed in Japan. I except FF13 to sell closer to 2 million than 3 million on PS3 in Japan, and that is with a PS3 price cut before or shortly after it is released.