Zlejedi said: Yes my hatefull anti wii predictions are never right: for example i said WSR won't bring big hardware boost and obviously i was wrong which you can check observing Japan numbers.   Also what games ? WSR which appeals to the crowd who loved WS and already bought the console ? WiiFit plus which appeals to the crowd who liked Wii Fit and already bought the console ? New Mario which appeals to the people who like Mario games and already replaced their gamecubes with Wii ?   All those Nintendo games will sell tons but they are not going to move a lot of hardware. I don't see Nintendo getting high sales without price drop.

360 doesn't have the games Wii has. Its lack of games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit is pretty evident.

I don't know about how big boost Wii Fit+ and WSR give to the system, what they do however, is build momentum. They aren't going to have an impact like their predecessors did, but atleast WSR should set a standard for WM+ games and Wii Fit+ should cater better people who need and want more program-like excercise.

As for NSMBW, that game should be a system seller, if anything. It's the first entry of a 2D Mario game on Wii (well VC has the old ones, but it doubt it's the same thing). Looking at what NSMB sold on DS, Wii version is expected to sell great aswell and the game is expected to sell systems too.

Saying NSMBW won't sell systems, sounds about the same as saying FF13 won't sell systems in Japan.

bdbdbd said: Zlejedi said: Yes my hatefull anti wii predictions are never right: for example i said WSR won't bring big hardware boost and obviously i was wrong which you can check observing Japan numbers.   Also what games ? WSR which appeals to the crowd who loved WS and already bought the console ? WiiFit plus which appeals to the crowd who liked Wii Fit and already bought the console ? New Mario which appeals to the people who like Mario games and already replaced their gamecubes with Wii ?   All those Nintendo games will sell tons but they are not going to move a lot of hardware. I don't see Nintendo getting high sales without price drop. 360 doesn't have the games Wii has. Its lack of games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit is pretty evident. I don't know about how big boost Wii Fit+ and WSR give to the system, what they do however, is build momentum. They aren't going to have an impact like their predecessors did, but atleast WSR should set a standard for WM+ games and Wii Fit+ should cater better people who need and want more program-like excercise. As for NSMBW, that game should be a system seller, if anything. It's the first entry of a 2D Mario game on Wii (well VC has the old ones, but it doubt it's the same thing). Looking at what NSMB sold on DS, Wii version is expected to sell great aswell and the game is expected to sell systems too. Saying NSMBW won't sell systems, sounds about the same as saying FF13 won't sell systems in Japan.

stealer i was about to reply to that post and about how NSMBWii will be a system seller stealer no i have been robbed and now i must eat a shoe lol

Mummelmann said: theRepublic said: VGChartz Wii Hardware data for the period 13th Jul 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009: 14,726,946 So, do I think that the Wii will sell another 9 million units this year?  Easily. Its already having a weaker year than last year and its still falling so directly comparing might not yield much relevant info. But I do think it'll clear 9 million more without much difficulty, yes.

I posted that because in these year end prediction threads it seems most people vastly underestimate the holidays, for all consoles.

theRepublic said: Mummelmann said: theRepublic said: VGChartz Wii Hardware data for the period 13th Jul 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009: 14,726,946 So, do I think that the Wii will sell another 9 million units this year?  Easily. Its already having a weaker year than last year and its still falling so directly comparing might not yield much relevant info. But I do think it'll clear 9 million more without much difficulty, yes. I posted that because in these year end prediction threads it seems most people vastly underestimate the holidays, for all consoles.

Yeah, people should've learned by now.

But still, it seems like most in here grossly overshot their year end predictions for PS3 and Wii this year. I know I did!

Mummelmann said: theRepublic said: Mummelmann said: theRepublic said: VGChartz Wii Hardware data for the period 13th Jul 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009: 14,726,946 So, do I think that the Wii will sell another 9 million units this year?  Easily. Its already having a weaker year than last year and its still falling so directly comparing might not yield much relevant info. But I do think it'll clear 9 million more without much difficulty, yes. I posted that because in these year end prediction threads it seems most people vastly underestimate the holidays, for all consoles. Yeah, people should've learned by now. But still, it seems like most in here grossly overshot their year end predictions for PS3 and Wii this year. I know I did!

Me too.  On January 9th, I predicted it would be between 73 and 74 million at the end of the year.

It doesn't help that the Wii was adjusted down several times after that date.  I blame the bad info I had to work with. :P

EDIT: I just rechecked the info I used to make my original prediction.  It has been adjusted down so far, that if I had that info in January, I would have predicted between 67 and 68 million.

60m is a shoe-in. There will be more than 9m Wiis sold in just Nov and Dec. I think 70m would have been a better question.

Mummelmann said: theRepublic said: Mummelmann said: theRepublic said: VGChartz Wii Hardware data for the period 13th Jul 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009: 14,726,946 So, do I think that the Wii will sell another 9 million units this year?  Easily. Its already having a weaker year than last year and its still falling so directly comparing might not yield much relevant info. But I do think it'll clear 9 million more without much difficulty, yes. I posted that because in these year end prediction threads it seems most people vastly underestimate the holidays, for all consoles. Yeah, people should've learned by now. But still, it seems like most in here grossly overshot their year end predictions for PS3 and Wii this year. I know I did!

Well i think nearly everyone was predicting Wii to have it's biggest year ever this year, this combined with overtracking gave alot of inflated estimates.  Interestingly, for it's fiscal year predictions, Nintendo expected the Wii to be about the same as the previous year meaning they obviously knew or foresaw something that alot of us missed or failed to give adequate weight to.  Add to this Iwata has said he believes Wii will have a big YOY third quarter which he feels will counter the 2nd quarter drop and we may yet see numbers much in excess of 60 million and even pushing into the high 60's. I am assuming of course that Nintendo is correct, which they may well not be. 

I know Nintendo is typically conservative with their predictions but does anyone know how accurate they have been historically?

edit: I realise i mixed fiscal year talk with calendar year quarters but i hope my point remains intact.

It's very likely.

It should get there, I mean we still have a ways to go until the holidays and we all know the end of the year will be big.