Will the Wii reach 60 million by years end?

[hsrob]

Mummelmann said:

theRepublic said:

Mummelmann said:

theRepublic said:

VGChartz Wii Hardware data for the period 13th Jul 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009: 14,726,946

So, do I think that the Wii will sell another 9 million units this year?  Easily.

Its already having a weaker year than last year and its still falling so directly comparing might not yield much relevant info. But I do think it'll clear 9 million more without much difficulty, yes.

I posted that because in these year end prediction threads it seems most people vastly underestimate the holidays, for all consoles.

Yeah, people should've learned by now.

But still, it seems like most in here grossly overshot their year end predictions for PS3 and Wii this year. I know I did!

Well i think nearly everyone was predicting Wii to have it's biggest year ever this year, this combined with overtracking gave alot of inflated estimates.  Interestingly, for it's fiscal year predictions, Nintendo expected the Wii to be about the same as the previous year meaning they obviously knew or foresaw something that alot of us missed or failed to give adequate weight to.  Add to this Iwata has said he believes Wii will have a big YOY third quarter which he feels will counter the 2nd quarter drop and we may yet see numbers much in excess of 60 million and even pushing into the high 60's. I am assuming of course that Nintendo is correct, which they may well not be. 

I know Nintendo is typically conservative with their predictions but does anyone know how accurate they have been historically?

edit: I realise i mixed fiscal year talk with calendar year quarters but i hope my point remains intact.