Lots of products have game back from what looked like a solid defeat, and I don't even have to list them, well ok ..... Microsoft during its battle with apple, Blu-ray when Hd-DVD was the only HD format......IBM compatibility vs apple computers.....list goes on and on.

I still think that the PS3 has the best ability to make improvements with its gameplan and would like to point out that the PS3/360 budget models are going to take a chunk of market share from the Wii, no doubt about it.

I also think that once the BD becomes more popular, Home, etc etc etc come into play the PS3 will have a lot more strength in its brand but we'll just have to see. Personally, I think that the PS3 will be at near 360 sales by june ''08

Cows are so funny. For once their vaunted system isn't destroying the competition with a 70% market share, and they are totally freaking out. You guys can prognosticate all you want, but you have to admit that Sony are in a bad position if they have had to drop the price by $200 in less than a year. I think that the 360 will likely come in a close third this gen which is great considering they entered the fray no more than 6 years ago.

Do you actually believe that? 

OT: The battle for second place begins with the PS3 price drop. 

The problem with a series of logical statements is that you can sometimes end up in an obviously untenable position. How the PS3 sells in relation to last year's 360 sales is completely irrelevant. Really. It means nothing.  What matters is how they sell relative to one another NOW, which doesn't look nearly so good. In fact, if you're going to argue that the PS3 will be the worldwide leader, it needs to sell *BETTER* than the 360! So far this year, the PS3 has actually fallen further behind the 360, not gained ground. Pardon me for not being bullish on its prospects of rising up at some indeterminate date in the future and seizing control of the market.

Price cuts have never been enough to transform a faltering console into the market leader. It's never happened before. Ever. Last generation, the Gamecube cut its price in the first year and was $150 when the PS2 was $200. Nintendo fans claimed all over the Internet that sales would surge up by some ungodly percentage and pass the PS2. Nothing of the sort happened, because the PS2 was the "it" console and everyone knew it. The Xbox didn't fare any better; it was the same price as the PS2, with much better technology inside, but sold drastically lower. All Microsoft's price cuts did was ensue that the Xbox division ended up losing $4 billion. Heck, the Dreamcast had its price cut again and again - you could actually get one for *FREE!* - and it didn't change things one bit.

Or, to put it another way - both the 360 and PS3 have already cut their prices once this year. In neither case did it reverse market trends. Both saw temporary surges in hardware sales, followed by declines back to roughly the previous level of sales. Why is THIS proposed price cut going to be tremendously different?

Games don't mean all that much either. The market trends have already been established; it's too late for them to be significantly changed. The N64 put out one of the greatest lineups ever in 1997 (Goldeneye, Ocarina, Mario Kart) and it wasn't enough to turn around the position of the console. Sales went up, no doubt about it, but pass the Playstation? No chance. The market trends were already well in place. Honestly, Sony fans this generation sound like Nintendo fans last generation. I remember them insisting in 2002, "wait for Mario and Zelda!" That's when the Gamecube was going to rise up and slay the PS2. How well did that turn out? But don't worry, everything will be completely different this time around...

Everything else here is the standard "Wii is a fad/graphically inferior/everyone wants a PS3 but can't afford it" nonsense that has been going around for ages. Look, I have nothing against the PS3. It's a nice machine, and I expect it will have some really good games. But can we please drop the fanboyism for a while and stop insisting that it's somehow, magically going to "win" this generation? It's waaaaaay too late for that now. (Frankly, this generation has been over since March of 2007, when the PS3's sluggish European launch ensured that the Wii would not be passed in that region either.) Consumers have voted with their wallets, the market has spoken, and the PS3 is not going to repeat the success of the PS2. End of story.

urNotone: You know what else has a rabid fanbase? Earthbound. You know how well it sold? (Actually, VG Chartz doesn't list it, I'd wager 600k between NA and Japan though). You know that Earthbound 2/Mother 4 on Wii wouldn't spike sales enormously, but would make some game players very happy.

So why would you believe Killzone 2, with exactly the same stats, would do the opposite? Why would a game that sold 750k on a 120 million base system instantly decimate and dominate for no apparent reason?

It needs 2 things. It needs to be good and fun, and it needs to be marketed. Not John Romero marketed, but marketed. If you don't know what that means, John Romero will make you his bitch.

And no, the PS3 is by no means dead yet, but it's clearly flailing. 4 Sku's within a year of release. They are grasping for marketshare as best they can, and one of the gambles may pay off.

To catch the Xbox 360 by 2012, the PS3 will need to outsell the 360 by 30,000 a week worldwide.

Thats 108,500 units a month more than the 360.

Is it possible......yes.

Is it anywhere near likely.......no.

Lets just leave it here and not even bother discussing it's chances of catching the wii.

So is the PS3 and so is the 360 if you own a mid-80s television set.

But if you own an HDTV or EDTV, the Wii is definitely 480p. 

Please post this in the eat crow thread.

I really want to make sure I heckle you endlessly in three months. 

The PS3 is roughly 6.6m units behind the 360 and the 360 is outselling it 2:1. By most estimates, MS also has wiggle room to drop the price without losing a lot of cash while Sony is selling off assets to support this $399 price point.

So, you're telling me that a system that has sold 4.8m in 11 months is going to sell ~14m in the next 14 months? Of course, this is excluding any kind of sales boost that MS might see from Mass Effect, Halo, Fable 2, Lost Odyssey, price drops, etc.

The people who say "PS3 will pass 360 in WW sales by 2009" either don't possess second grade math skills or logic completely escapes them. Actually, it's probably both.

Here's why I believe the PS3 can't still win.

Folks love to quote the VG launch. Folks are forgetting one important factor - customers. When the 360 came out, I wasn't an early adopter - I stayed back and bought one when I felt it had enough utility - and offered me at least 3 to 5 games I would love to play. As soon as the PS3 came out, I was inches from trying to get one ... but decided to sit back again and wait. I'm still waiting. And a lot of other gamers are waiting. After a while, folks will just pass completely and pick one up at a pawn shop or yard sale.

Thinking that the same number of folks who bought a 360 will buy a PS3 is absurd. There's no logic in it, especially when in August 2006, there were tons of games (and exclusives) for the 360 and Sony's lineup doesn't even compare.

Games sell systems, not systems selling games. Even with a price cut, what does Sony have to offer? The cheapiest Blu Ray player on the market.

Case, closed. Verdict - not a snowball's chance in hell ...