I've always thought the 10 year thing was a marketing talking point, to make people believe that investing 500 dollars in a gaming system was worth it because it will be around for a long time.

Most likely, Sony will proactively release their next console to combat Microsoft when necessary.

They might keep the PS3 on the market for 10 years, but I doubt it will be their primary console for more than 6.

It's a moot point since there are no hard indicators that the PS3 platform is on the verge of being discontinued as the OP outlines.

There is no great diaspora in third party support; if anything, it has shown consistent growth.

Replacement by 2010? No. Announced in 2010? No.

It would be cheaper for SCE to address the real issue with the PS3. Cost, both production cost and retail. Price has been $399 since 2007. A long between price drops, and certainly a long time for a mainstream console to stay in that price range.

So a significant price drop does need to happen sooner than later, and if the rumors of the PS3 slimline turn out to be true, this essentially addresses both cost issues. If not, absolutely no later than 2010 at no more than $299 MSRP. That's pushing the boundary of being too late to make a significant difference in the long run IMO.

"But SCE can't afford to lose money on a price drop." Production cost drops are specifically to address this issue, not to simply repackage a previous product in an attempt to extend longevity. Lower production costs, fewer components, overall reduction in size and weight equates to smaller, lighter packaging, reduction in shelf/storage space for inventory, etc. All have the same effect of reducing overall cost to deliver product to the hands of the end consumer.

So unless you believe SCE will be dropping out of the hardware/console business completely (hope would probably be a better word), or you believe that a re-specced PS4 can be sold for less than a PS3 a year from now, odds of either happening are either slim or none. Slim just left the room.

Slim PS3 first. No point in making speculation about the PS4 before that.

The 10 year support/production cycle has essentially been just that. Support/production cycle with no word ever being said that SCE would not release a new console before those 10 years passed. That would be as ridiculous to say as it would be for even the most guillible consumer to believe.

Just based off of the support/production cycles for the PS1 and PS2 (both in the 10 year range), there's no real reason why the plan will be any different for the PS3.

Unless third party developers abandon the platform en masse, there aren't any real indicators. At worst, SCE finds itself in the same position as the GC, keeping the platform alive with SCE published softs and relying upon production cost reductions to keep the hardware profitable late in the development cycle in addition to revenue generated by lower budget games as the cost to develop drops and lower budget titles become more viable.

That said, it seems unlikely that SCE would leave the PS3 as their leading edge console for over 6. But then many within industry have been saying that this generation will be longer than any previous, but that remains to be seen.

To no surprise, only Sonyfans are posting in this thread. While some of the rebuttles are OK (they are weak in that they don't challange the idea dirrectly, instead, dancing around it) a lot of misinformed. But before that.....

BladeOfGod: You know that [part about "He lost all credibility. That was aimed at you. All you said was "ad homenin," because I do not follow your beleif. At least I backed mine up. Your "post" hardly counts as one.

Skeeuk: "article is written by an absolute stupid idiot" Oww, you got me. Slain by your words of truth. How am I a stupid idiot? This, coming from the guy who said "stupid idiot" despite they have the same connetation.

Arius Dion: "Raf: It is the content that sold the Wii, motion controls are meaningless if it doesn't have the software that utilizes it. Also, the Price excuse is pretty moot at this point. Price didn't save the Cube from 3rd place." YES, thank you. Someone who gets it. We have become accoustome to poor analysis. People look at price above all else, but we know price is not a major factor (the cube was less then the PS2 and still flopped. The 360 is less than the Wii and it can't keep up). There isn't much evidence for the strength of price.

snyperdud: "I think a 10 year lifespan is pretty reasonable given the length this generation is supposed to have.

The PS3 isn't going anywhere any time soon, regardless of what people hope. Sony has made a huge investment into it and I doubt they will just turn their back on it. Yes, they have lost a ton of money so far. But, there is a lot of time left in the game and all the more reason to try and earn their money back (mostly likely through software and hardware adjustments).

The PS3 will be fine, it isn't selling the best right now, but give it time."

The problem with your claim is you first need to prove that this generation will be longer, or at least give some reason to why. You made the claim based on the assumption, but if the assumption is false, then your entirely wrong. Additionally, Sony has to make money. Even if they invested alot, it is not worth keeping if it can turn a profit. It's a lot trickier then it seems. Abandoning razors and blades, then they could make more profit from a new console. If the PS3 becomes stagnant, they will have to retaliate with a new console to stay competitive. It's not as easy as it looks.

richardhutnik: "2. The PS3 hasn't had a price cut." This one is a huge misconception I hear to often. You cut prices for a struggling or dying units. The purposes are many, such as trying to prolong it's life, trying to increase demand, or to liquidate it and use the money to recuperate losses. Healthy systems don't get price cuts. The Wii has yet to have a price cut. The PS2 took a while to have it's price cut. Succeeding consoles keep their prices; failing consoles get it cut. This is what I was talking about with the Gamecube.

two, the PS3 Slim looks like its real, or people wouldnt have issued cease and desist orders for it, that will further drop production costs, but it will retain the same price point if the PS2 slim is a guide, meaning profit on every unit sold.

To consumers, there is no value to it. They will know it's a PS3 that is slim (that's it's name), but they wont care. Smaller does not equal better in the consumer's mind. Nintendo was able to create a mass market because they know what consumers wanted. The games on the PS3 appeal to the core users. There is a very limited number of them. The slim wont save the system.

third, the PS3 hasnt lost momentum, it would have had to have had momentum to begin with to lose it, The 360 is losing steam, the Wii is losing steam, the PS3 is still ploding along at the same pace.

This is a good point, but it helps my argument, not yours. What you are saying is the PS3 has always been doing bad. Where the Wii and 360 could lose steam, the PS3 can't because it never had steam. The point I made is that the PS3 is stagnant. Additionally, the Wii normally has more growth or less drops. I think the only time the PS3 had more growth was in 2007, where the Wii grew 449% and the PS3 grew 519%. Of course, the Wii probably showed more growth. Also, if you look at the compair consoles, you'll see the PS3 and 360 are declining. The Wii has a sharp drop only becuase US data is not in. The graph also shows Sony having a hard time keeping up. During big selling seasons, the Wii has a huge spike with a second hump into the new year, the 360 has a small hump, and the PS3 has a really tiny one. The Wii has been software deprived for a while, but is still keeping pace. the other two are not. This shows how much trouble the system is having keeping up.

3. Blu-ray. Do I need to say more than those 2 words? Once PS3 is down to $300 that will be a great deal; you get an high quality game system and a high quality Blu-ray player for one reasonable price.

Consumers don't want Blu Ray.

There are diminishing returns with production values. For some reason in entertainment, if the production values are too high, the customers react unfavorably. This phenomenon can be seen in movies and music as well. I personally believe that if the customer senses too much production value, he or she will sense the product attempting to be more style over substance. The customer will then feel ‘cheated’.

Although disruptive products initially can only be used in small markets, they eventually become competitive in mainstream markets. This is because technological progress exceeds the rate of improvement that mainstream customers want or can absorb. As a result, the products that are currently in the mainstream eventually will overshoot the performance that mainstream markets demand,.......EXAMPLE: Microsoft and Sony, relying on sustaining technologies, overshot the market. The technological progress for graphics exceeded the market’s demand. With consoles costing from $400 to $600 and relying on features (better graphics and horsepower) the market didn’t really want, this opened the way for a disruptor.

Why would consumers trade in their DVD player for Blu Ray? If your answer is "It's prettier" your wrong. The idea is that once something becomes "good enough," then any additions will be unfavorable to consumers. At that point, they don't feel the upgrade is worth their money. So, instead of upgrading to Blu-Ray, they'll save their money and buy and watch DVDs. They dont see the changes or the need Blu-Ray brings. Blu-Ray is not going to sell the PS3.

And my favorite "third parties are not diffecting"

The answer: they are starting to. It's evident that more third party software, and better third party software is coming to the Wii. More and more developers are hoping onto Wiiware. The idea is this: thie Wii is selling the best. So, developers take note and developer for that system, ignoring the other. Third parties this time were reluctant of the Wii, but now they can't ignore it any longer. More and more are announcing Wii projects. Like the DS, developers will focus on namely the Wii. It's not happening as fast since the Wii has not taken off as fast as the DS did. It will happen soon.

The only problem with that is that the Wii has lost a lot of momentum that it had over the past couple of years with its lackluster game lineup that debuted at E3 2008 and wowed no one. That said they've built up a sizeable lead already so they probably will hang on to win this gen.

Also, the 360 will probably be retired soon to make way for Microsoft's next console which will feature exclusives like Fable 3, Mass Effect 3, and Gears of War 3.

In the meantime, the PS3 (much like the PSP which frequently beats or holds its own against the DS in Japan in sales) will receive many high quality exclusive games over the next few years in the wake of games like GT5 and FFXIII from Japanese developers, and while most Western console games gear up to be made for the next Microsoft console, the PS3 will most likely get many of the third party western games that the nextbox gets and be able to approximate them much better than does the Wii which has a hard enough time trying to play this gen's top western third party games like Bioshock, Fallout 3, and GTA IV. And the PS3 will continue to receive games from its top Western first and second party studios games like Killzone 3, Little Big Planet 2, and Uncharted 3 guaranteeing that it has a long shelf life.

I still say that the most likely outcome of this gen is

Wii -- 100,000,000 units sold (but a much harder time reaching that second 50 million than it did its first 50 million)

PS3 -- 70,000,000 (no third place console has ever had the quality of games that the PS3 has headed its way from Japanese and Western companies over the next few years.

360 -- 50,000,000 (will be retired to make room for third games in leading series to propel the sales of the next Microsoft console.)

@greenmedic88: uhhh, where to start
1)The PS3 will not match the PS1 or 2 in any way. Those systems turned a profit and sold over 100million units. The PS3 is struggling to beat the N64. This claim is just plain silly.
2)"Replacement by 2010? No. Announced in 2010? No." How? This isn't an answer.
3)
"But SCE can't afford to lose money on a price drop." Production cost drops are specifically to address this issue, not to simply repackage a previous product in an attempt to extend longevity. Lower production costs, fewer components, overall reduction in size and weight equates to smaller, lighter packaging, reduction in shelf/storage space for inventory, etc. All have the same effect of reducing overall cost to deliver product to the hands of the end consumer.

Good point, but you didn't address the systems stand in the market (no one is). The system is behind and isn't growing. Your claim would only work is the system has more units sold then it actually does.

@txrattlesnake: How you came to that conclusion I will never know. You claim the 360 will be the one to get the boot when it sells less then the PS3, has more million sellers, and is in demand more for consumers. The PS3 is also costing the company an arm and a leg (the 360 was never meant to make money). Look here

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39453&end=39950&weekly=1

Your claims are crazy. The Wii is growing faster then the other two. The PS3 and 360 are growing at the same rate despite the fact the 360 has been out longer. The Wii, from January to May, is doing worse then last year, but coupled with that fact that in 08 it has Brawl, Mario Kart and Wii Fit, and this year, Punch Out, it's doing really well.

Your claims just don't match up with the facts.

You're going to see an increase in ownership from the 3 million that the PS3 has now in Japan to between 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after FFXIII, Versus XIII, and GT5 come out. Not to mention all the other PS3 games like Trico, PS3 Tales of Vesperia, and Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2, and whatever exclusive Kojima has brewing for the system next that Japanese gamers will also go nuts over.

The success of the PS3 in Japan and its far greater popularity there than the 360 will ever have in that nation guarantees that the PS3 won't be going away for a long time.

They are already making money on the 499 console, and are only 40 dollars under on the 399 console.

You really want to bet they wont make a profit on the consoles for 3+ years? I'll let you take that back right now if you want. the PS3 Slim will cut production costs even more, but sell at the same price... So how bout I say that they will turn a profit on every console sold by December this year baring a price drop and the PS3 Slim being fake. We can make this official if you want.

Dude the PS3 isn't struggling to beat the N64. 2 1/2 years in the PS3 is at 22.2 million. The N64 sold 32 million LIFETIME. And not only that but the lowest the PS3 has been is $400 and I could be wrong but wasn't the N64 $299 (or lower) at launch?

If you consider the PS3 struggling to beat the N64 then I guess our definitions of struggling differ greatly.

I will be willing to put a major bet that PS3 has sold more units than the NES by the end of 2012 - That makes 6 years on the market if my math is correct. That means 61 million sales or more by 2012. Any takers???