Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[greenmedic88]

It's a moot point since there are no hard indicators that the PS3 platform is on the verge of being discontinued as the OP outlines.

There is no great diaspora in third party support; if anything, it has shown consistent growth.

Replacement by 2010? No. Announced in 2010? No.

It would be cheaper for SCE to address the real issue with the PS3. Cost, both production cost and retail. Price has been $399 since 2007. A long between price drops, and certainly a long time for a mainstream console to stay in that price range.

So a significant price drop does need to happen sooner than later, and if the rumors of the PS3 slimline turn out to be true, this essentially addresses both cost issues. If not, absolutely no later than 2010 at no more than $299 MSRP. That's pushing the boundary of being too late to make a significant difference in the long run IMO.

"But SCE can't afford to lose money on a price drop." Production cost drops are specifically to address this issue, not to simply repackage a previous product in an attempt to extend longevity. Lower production costs, fewer components, overall reduction in size and weight equates to smaller, lighter packaging, reduction in shelf/storage space for inventory, etc. All have the same effect of reducing overall cost to deliver product to the hands of the end consumer.

So unless you believe SCE will be dropping out of the hardware/console business completely (hope would probably be a better word), or you believe that a re-specced PS4 can be sold for less than a PS3 a year from now, odds of either happening are either slim or none. Slim just left the room.

Slim PS3 first. No point in making speculation about the PS4 before that.