i'm not saying this crash is going to happen magically out of nowhere. i'm saying that the times are ripe for a crash to happen, say within the next 4-5 years.

but i do see your point that the third parties that survive can move to the wii. but i counter-argue in saying that a whole lot of these third parties will be gone by that time, seeing the studio closures and massive losses that we're seeing today.

I have been awaiting this videogame crash for about the past 10 years or so. It never seems to show up. Maybe it will, but I doubt it will. Development has a chance to realign. Cost for development could drop, and less expensive games could come out. Companies can also resell retro stuff and make money.

Whatever happens it won't happen the way someone here predicts it.

Ehh no.

He is partially right that there are too many games and studios but there's a certain amount of money people can and will spend on video games.

Therefore when studios start closing there will be less players to share that pool and they will have higher chances of becoming profitable.

Basically weak will fall while strong will prevail - basic capitalism.

I have trouble believing that.

Assuming even $20 return per sale, that's $260 million of revenue for a $100 million game.

Link?

And if they did make a loss, it's not because of GTA, it's because of one of their other many games. All of the sports games, BioShock on PS3...

EDIT: 2K didn't even publish GTA4! Take Two did!

*facepalm*

I really hope it doesn't happen, small developers working on download only titles seem to be striving, if you want to make note of that. Game companies are in trouble since the budgets have grown bigger then the market can handle, sales are at record highs because advertisements are through the roof, but still it's not compensating enough.

It's like this one of the biggest markets like movies, they have a few blockbusters a year those movies have huge budgets as well, if they made blockbusters all year long with those huge budgets the market couldn't sustain them. That is what's happening now since development cost for a good looking HD game are to the gaming what a blockbuster budget is. Too big, too much, and too often are the issues right now.

This post point to exactly what I have been talikng about for years.

1. This generation has to last much longer than any previous generation.

2. Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, and all other interested parties are going to have to form a united games platform.

Point 1 Expanded

This generation has been nothing but hell to this point for 3rd party publishers. The transition to multicore proccessors, the completely differant techs used between the consoles, and the distraction caused by Nintendo have put publishers in deep water. However, it is not the end of the world. Publishers now have their engines built, and are ready to focus on games and being in the black.

I figure 2009 should be the year were most publishers either break even, or come very close. By 2010 everyone should be back in the black, and after that the idustry will need time to get its feet planted solidly before we start jumping into another generation.

Point 2 Expanded

At this point the big 3rd parties need to come out and say enough is enough. EA, Ubi, Take Two, Activision, and THQ have to stand firm and say they will only support one console next generation. The movie indusrty does not have 3 differant players that all have differant licensing models, differant propiritary codecs, and content that is exclusive to one player, nor does the music industry. The game industry needs to grow up, and become an adult. No more wasting valuable recources re-writing code, no more fighting over licensing because of this vs. that and that vs. this.

Wrap-up

If the industry players can put their egos aside, then the game industtry can sail though these rough waters, and come out the other side larger than ever. By 2015 - 2020 we could have on universal format that has players from all over the tech industry making hardware, and software. Basically it would be a platform similar to PC, only no confusing hardware upgrades, no driver problems, no compatability issues, and no windows. These new boxes would all be home entertaiment centers doing everything from playing HD movies from disc or download, to playing disc based or downlaod based games. They would bring together all the ideas from Wii, PS3, and 360, plus new innovations from Samsung, Toshiba, LG, and any other company interested in getting licensed to make a game compatable entertainment box.

This is the only way I can see the continued success of the gaming industry. If war continues to be fought, all competitors will loose in the end. The only way is to come together, and be one united industry.

This same discussion seems to come up every year and reminds me of the guy who holds up a sign proclaiming that the end of the World is near.

If you really believe that the only way a video game company can make money is to stop making HD games and instead make Wii games then that's your belief but some people are getting tired of hearing it.

Also bugrimmar you do need to provide proof for your claim that all publishers are in danger of collapse because Activision, Ubisoft, Epic, Id, Bethesda, Valve, Konami, Capcom, Codemasters, Namco Bandai, Bungie, and others say otherwise.

I remember reading where someone wanted Activision to cancel all other versions of their Call of Duty series and just make it for the Wii, you know the system that sells the least number of copies. With financial nonsense like that is it any wonder we're continually getting threads like this?

Portables or apple will save gaming.

It is not true!